Neaz Mustafa, Draw Media

The statistics show that the 2018 scenario cannot be repeated, and Masoud Barzani would be the winner over Bafel Talabani this time. If the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) loses the Presidency post, there would be a big question on the PUK’s participation in the new government cabinet in Iraq.

Barzani and Talabani’s discussion on President’s Candidates was not fruitful. PUK insists on Barham Salih, and PDK on Hoshyar Zebari to be their candidates for the next Iraqi president. More Details are in this report by Draw Media.

Barzani Wants the President in any Circumstances!
 PUK and PDK have not reached an agreement on a candidate for the next Iraqi president both sides have their candidates, which was noticed at today’s meeting between Talabani and Barzani.
The three main leadership positions in the Iraqi government are divided among Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Whereas Kurds get the presidency, Shiites get the premiership, and Sunnis get the parliamentary speaker. Among Kurds, the PUK has held on to the presidency position since 2005.
The KDP and PUK for years abided by a strategic agreement, where the PUK would get the Iraqi president of their choice, and the KDP in return would get the Presidency of the Kurdistan Region. Until 2018, When Masoud Barzani stepped down as President of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), he wanted to get back the Iraqi presidency position from PUK. The KDP and for the first time, put forth Fuad Hussein against Barham Salih for the position. 

Will the 2018 Scenario Be Repeated?
Today the political situation in Bagdad is the same as four years ago. There is no official agreement between the KDP and the PUK over the Iraqi presidency. Both parties have their candidates for the position. But the election results show that this time Barzani would win the competition and he would be able to get revenge for the 2018 incidents.
The MPs have to elect a new president by February 8. The president will later assign the candidate of the biggest parliamentary alliance to form a new government. 
In 2018, Bafel Talabani won the position from Barzani. When Barham Salih, Talabani’s Candidate, won by 219 votes over Fuad Hussain, Barzani’s Candidate, by 22 votes.
But repeating the same scenario in 2022 is kind of impossible because the situation has been changed now.
KDP and Barzani have returned to Bagdad with more power. Before the Oct 10 of 2021’s election, Barzani has signed an agreement with Muqtada Sadr. And now Sadr is the biggest winner of the election and he would form the new government. Above that, Barzani has established a strong relationship with the Suni blocks.

How Barzani would win the presidency competition? 
On the 9th of January, in the first meeting of the fifth round of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, the KDP showed its power. In that meeting, a new political alliance in Iraq has been presented for the first time between (Sadr, Barzani, Al-Halbousi). This alliance has 180 seats out of 329 parliament seats.
On the other side, the Coordination Framework alliance has 70 seats. 
The PUK is one of the political parties that got 18 seats in the October 2021 elections and is looking forward to getting the presidency position as its portion, depending on the previous political agreements between the Iraqi parties. But yet the party does not have a solid agreement Neither with Muqtada Sadr nor with the Coordination Framework alliance. 
In addition, the PUK did not vote for Muhamad Al-Halbousi for the parliament presidency which angered the Sunnis. But by being away from the Shiite conflict, PUK might achieve the satisfaction of Iran. If the situation continues as it is, in the second parliament meeting, the (Sadr + Halbousi) alliance would vote for (Hoshyar Zebari) the KDP Candidate for the Iraqi presidency.