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More than a week has passed since the start of the election campaign. Political parties and candidates are actively seeking support to secure their share of seats. Based on field surveys, previous voting patterns, and the current political landscape, Drow presents its forecast for each party’s expected seats in the Kurdistan Region, according to the Saint-Laguë 1.7 system.
This system tends to disadvantage smaller parties while benefiting the larger ones.
The report provides predictions for the following lists:
KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party), PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan), New Generation, Halwest, Kurdistan Islamic Union, Kurdistan Justice Group, and the People’s Front (Baray Gell).

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Overview

The 6th term of Iraq’s Council of Representatives is scheduled for November 11, 2025 — a decisive election for Kurdish political forces.
Under the 1.7 Saint-Laguë system, smaller parties are expected to lose representation while major parties gain more seats.

Predicted overall seat ranges:

• KDP: 25–31 seats

• PUK: 19–22 seats

• New Generation: 5–10 seats

• Islamic Union: 2–5 seats

• (Halwest): 2–4 seats

• Justice Group (Komal): 1–3 seats

• People’s Front (Baray Gell): 0–1 seat

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Voting Statistics in the Kurdistan Region

There are 44 total seats (plus 2 minority/Christian quota seats) for the three governorates of the Kurdistan Region: Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Duhok.

• Total eligible voters: 3,883,501

• Biometric cards issued (eligible to vote): 3,068,350 (79%)

• Without biometric cards (cannot vote): 815,150 (21%)

Breakdown:

• Erbil: 1,087,880 eligible – 1,002,087 biometric – 85,793 non-biometric

• Sulaymaniyah: 1,201,846 eligible – 1,119,111 biometric – 82,547 non-biometric

• Duhok: 778,846 eligible – 722,853 biometric – 55,993 non-biometric

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1. Erbil Governorate (16 seats total, including 1 minority seat)

Approx. 1,410,112 people have voting rights, but only 1,002,087 have biometric cards. Around 29% of eligible voters may not participate.
Expected turnout: 55–60%, or roughly 550,000–600,000 voters.

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)

• Stronghold of KDP (“Yellow Zone”).

• In the 2021 parliamentary elections, 10 seats in Erbil.

• In the 2024 Kurdistan Parliament elections, 347,786 votes (52%).

• Forecast: 8–10 seats.

  • Best case: 10

  • Worst case: 8

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)

• Led in Erbil by Qubad Talabani.

• 2024 KRG elections: 111,102 votes (17%).

• Predicted decline to 85–95K votes → 2–3 seats.

  • Best: 3

  • Worst: 2

New Generation Movement

• 2021 Iraq elections: 79,245 votes (18%) → 3 seats.

• 2024 KRG elections: 104,222 votes (16%).

• Expected: 80–90K votes → 2–3 seats.

  • Best: 3

  • Worst: 2

Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal)

• 2021: 19,517 votes, no seats.

• Needs ~30K votes to win 1 seat.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yekgirtu)

• 2024: 24,178 votes (4%).

• With a new campaign and a stronger candidate, we may reach 30K votes.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Halwest Movement

• 2024: 16,871 votes. Needs ~35–40K to win 1 seat.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

People’s Front (Baray Gell)

• Led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi.

• 2024: 9,776 votes. If turnout increases, we may barely secure 1 seat.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Erbil Seat Predictions Summary:

• KDP: 8–10

• PUK: 2–3

• New Generation: 2–3

• Halwest: 0–1

• Islamic Union: 0–1

• Justice Group: 0–1

• People’s Front: 0–1

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2. Sulaymaniyah Governorate (18 seats)

Eligible voters: 1,532,893, biometric: 1,201,846, expected turnout 50–55% (≈600K voters).

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)

• Strongest force; controls local security.

• 2024 KRG elections: 257,359 votes (41%).

• Expected: 8–10 seats.

  • Best: 10

  • Worst: 8

New Generation Movement

• 2024: 141,179 votes (21%).

• 2021 Iraq elections: 5 seats in Sulaymaniyah.

• Current forecast: 3–5 seats.

  • Best: 5

  • Worst: 3

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)

• 2024: 62,856 votes (9%).

• Expected: 2–3 seats.

  • Best: 3

  • Worst: 2

Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal)

• 2024: 40,922 votes.

• Expected: 1–2 seats.

  • Best: 2

  • Worst: 1

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yekgirtu)

• 2024: 50,534 votes.

• Expected: 1–2 seats.

  • Best: 2

  • Worst: 1

People’s Front (Baray Gell)

• 2024: 21,080 votes.

• May barely reach 1 seat if votes rise to ~30K.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Halwest Movement

• 2024: 30,699 votes.

• May win 1–2 seats depending on turnout.

  • Best: 2

  • Worst: 1

Sulaymaniyah Seat Predictions Summary:

• PUK: 8–10

• New Generation: 3–5

• KDP: 2–3

• Halwest: 1–2

• Islamic Union: 1–2

• Justice Group: 1–2

• People’s Front: 0–1

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3. Duhok Governorate (11 seats, including 1 minority)

Eligible voters: 940,496, biometric: 778,846, expected turnout 65–70% (≈545K voters).

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)

• Dominant party in Duhok.

• 2021 Iraq elections: 261,543 votes (66%).

• 2024 KRG elections: 402,157 votes (73%).

• Expected: 9–10 seats.

  • Best: 10

  • Worst: 9

New Generation Movement

• 2024: 46,631 votes (second place).

• Expected: 0–1 seat.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yekgirtu)

• 2021: 81,144 votes (20%).

• 2024: 42,732 votes.

• Expected: 1–2 seats.

  • Best: 2

  • Worst: 1

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)

• 2024: 28,577 votes (5%).

• May win 1 seat if the female candidate performs strongly.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Halwest Movement

• 2024: 8,438 votes.

• Needs ~3x increase to win 1 seat.

  • Best: 1

  • Worst: 0

Justice Group & People’s Front

• Both under 5,000 votes → no seat expected.

Duhok Seat Predictions Summary:

• KDP: 9–10

• Islamic Union: 1–2

• New Generation: 0–1

• PUK: 0–1

• Halwest: 0–1

• Justice Group: 0

• People’s Front: 0

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Overall Seat Predictions (Kurdistan Region Total)

Party	Best Case	Worst Case
KDP	31	25
PUK	22	19
New Generation	10	5
Islamic Union	5	2
Halwest	4	2
Justice Group (Komal)	3	1
People’s Front (Baray Gell)	1	0