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APIKUR has not been invited to Erbil, Baghdad oil talks

APIKUR Statement Seeking prompt resumption of oil exports, APIKUR calls for mutually agreeable solutions that uphold its member companies’ rights. APIKUR companies remain ready to meet with stakeholders and implement solutions. APIKUR is aware of reports of recent meetings between officials from the Government of Iraq (GoI) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and representatives of International Oil Companies (IOCs).  However, APIKUR member companies—which represent the majority of the oil produced by IOCs in Kurdistan—have neither been included in these meetings nor been invited to participate in any future meetings between the KRG and GoI. APIKUR member companies remain confident that their existing contracts are legally binding and enforceable; however, we believe concrete solutions can be implemented immediately that will satisfy all parties, protect the contractual rights of the IOCs and enable the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. APIKUR remains ready to engage with all parties to progress these solutions for the benefit of all Iraqis. “Sanctity of contracts and clearly defined methods of past and future payments are essential for the resumption of full oil production and export by APIKUR member companies,” said Myles B. Caggins III, APIKUR spokesman. “APIKUR members are ready to meet with GoI and KRG officials; continued delays only harm the economic Zlivelihood of all Iraqis.” APIKUR’s objective and purpose is to promote the KRI as an attractive destination for international oil and gas companies, service providers and investors. In addition, APIKUR aims to advocate for and represent the common interests of its members, function as a joint and effective voice towards all relevant stakeholders whether in the KRI, or elsewhere, and provide a forum for its members to share appropriate public industry information and best practices.  

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Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy On November 14, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) made waves by ruling on a complaint against Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, ultimately deciding to revoke his membership in the legislature. In the absence of any appeal mechanism, Halbousi will have to step down from the speakership he has held since 2018—a development that will have ripple effects on the provincial elections scheduled for December 18. A Controversial Institution from the Start When the U.S.-led coalition established the FSC in 2003, it was intended to serve as the top line of defense for the rule of law in post-Saddam Iraq. Two years later—but, crucially, just before the new constitution was adopted—the Law of the Federal Supreme Court (Law No. 30) was passed granting the FSC extensive powers to determine the constitutionality of legislative and regulatory acts, arbitrate disputes between Baghdad and the provinces, validate parliamentary election results, and assert exclusive jurisdiction over prosecutions against top government authorities. The court was also given several guarantees of independence, including at the administrative and financial levels. The FSC’s legitimacy has always been controversial—even its constitutionality remains the subject of ongoing legal debates. Article 92 of the 2005 constitution ordered parliament to pass a law defining the court’s status, but this never occurred. As a result, the FSC still functions under Law No. 30 of 2005. The court has also been the subject of regular criticism as a symbol of sectarianism. This is partly because parliament and other actors have turned the process of appointing judges into a heated battle for sectarian balance, but also because the FSC has decisively interfered in the political process, especially during the stalemates that often emerge during post-election government formation and sectarian bargaining. Most infamously, the court permitted the reinstatement of Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister in 2010 despite the fact that Ayad Allawi’s party won the majority of votes in that year’s parliamentary contest. In a highly contentious interpretation of the constitution, the justices determined that the winning party in a national election does not hold an exclusive right to form the next government—that power can be granted to a coalition of parties instead, even if said coalition emerges after the election. Many observers believe this decision was influenced by Shia parties that opposed Allawi for breaking ranks with them and leading a secular coalition. The FSC Under Faeq Zaidan The FSC has become even more controversial in recent years under the leadership of Judge Faeq Zaidan. In 2017, he became president of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), the body that oversees most of the judiciary and gives him some degree of sway over the technically independent FSC. His influence reached new heights in 2021, when his only remaining rival in the senior judicial ranks—Medhat al-Mahmoud, chief justice of the FSC—was forcibly retired by an amendment to Law No. 30 that mandated a new age limit for Supreme Court judges. While Zaidan had seemingly aligned himself with the country’s pro-Iran camp, Mahmoud had drawn the ire of these factions by showing favor to Muqtada al-Sadr’s rival Shia movement. Notably, the same amendment that sidelined Mahmoud also established the principle of sectarian balance in the FSC’s composition, spurring an increase in Shia justices from southern provinces. Zaidan subsequently used his new authority to implement key judiciary changes and facilitate laws that further strengthened his authority and influence. For instance, the SJC established a “career management” commission with significant powers over the promotion, extension, transfer, and retirement of judges and public prosecutors, essentially giving Zaidan the power to hire and fire all of the country’s judges. He also used his influence to shape the FSC selection process, including the appointment of new chief justice Jassem Mohammed Aboud, whose loyalty to Zaidan is notorious. From Tipping Elections to Open-Ended Judicial Activism When Iraq called for an early parliamentary election in 2021 following months of public protests, the government’s preparations for that vote included overhauling the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). Zaidan quickly took advantage of this process, ensuring that IHEC’s board was composed of judges so that he and his circle could influence important pre-election decisions. In the weeks following the October vote, Zaidan guided the FSC in ways that supported the pro-Iran bloc. Initially, the court seemed to take a balanced position by validating the Sadrist bloc’s electoral victory and putting an end to fraud allegations by rival Shia groups. Before long, however, the FSC issued a string of decisions favoring the Coordination Framework, the pro-Iran Shia bloc opposed to Sadr. Perhaps the most crucial decision related to parliament’s selection of a new president, the first step in the government formation process. In simple terms, the court took a longstanding requirement for a two-thirds majority vote and distorted it into a two-thirds quorum requirement. According to this unprecedented interpretation, at least two-thirds of legislators must be present to certify the vote for president—a decision that enabled the pro-Iran bloc to act as a blocking minority by simply boycotting relevant parliamentary sessions. This in turn paved the way for the resignation of Sadr’s faction and the Coordination Framework’s rise to power. The FSC has also issued rulings that had the effect of punishing the pro-Iran camp’s political opponents. In February 2022, the court declared the Kurdistan Regional Government’s 2007 natural resource law unconstitutional, effectively dismantling a framework that had been designed to compensate for the lack of a federal hydrocarbons law and enable the KRG to proceed with oil sales. Although the weaknesses of the 2007 framework were indisputable, the FSC’s ruling had a clear political motivation as well—to pressure the Kurdistan Democratic Party into abandoning Sadr’s camp, thereby preventing him from forming a government that would have excluded pro-Iran factions. Such punitive meddling continued well after the Coordination Framework achieved its goal and formed a government. In January 2023, the FSC ruled that transfers from the federal budget to the KRG were unconstitutional, and in May, it overruled the attempted extension of the KRG parliament’s term. Other politicized cases have likewise generated controversial (and, notably, pro-Iran) rulings. On September 4, the FSC overturned a law ratifying the 2012 Iraqi-Kuwaiti agreement on navigation in the Khor Abdullah waterway. The case was brought by a parliamentarian from the Hoquq bloc, a political organ of the Iran-backed, U.S.-designated militia Kataib Hezbollah. Besides the pro-Iran camp’s general hostility toward the Sunni Arab-ruled Gulf states, the case may have stemmed from Tehran’s recent tensions with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia over exploitation of the Durra natural gas field. In any event, the ruling threatened to severely disrupt Baghdad’s diplomatic relations with Kuwait, spurring Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to intervene. Zaidan eventually signaled that the decision could be reversed. The November 14 ruling against Halbousi continued the trend of highly politicized FSC actions. Over the years, he had managed to become the undisputed leader of Iraqi Sunni politics and maintain his leadership role in parliament despite numerous changes in government and repeated attempts to dethrone him. In the end, he was taken out by an activist high court—specifically, after a member of his own political alliance, Taqaddum, took him to court on accusations that he had forged a resignation letter for the plaintiff. Implications Despite the multitude of instances in which Faeq Zaidan’s judiciary has issued rulings that benefited Tehran and its proxies, determining the precise extent of Iranian influence on the Supreme Court is not so simple. Even FSC rulings that align with Tehran’s interests often reveal strains of Iraqi nationalist ideology—especially the goals of recentralizing power in Baghdad at the expense of Kurdish autonomy and reforming the constitution to break the country’s chronic cycle of post-election crises and instability. Zaidan himself articulated these ideas in a February 2022 article published on the SJC website. In his pursuit of judicial supremacy, Zaidan has often shown strategic patience by playing with the rules rather than disregarding them outright. Hence, his highly problematic judiciary should not be conflated with the country’s Iran-backed militias—unlike them, his institution remains a potential partner for the international community. For example, cooperation with Iraq’s judiciary has been fruitful on issues related to the Islamic State, with Zaidan publishing legal analysis earlier this year that should facilitate civil documentation for children born under the jihadist group’s so-called “caliphate.” At the same time, partners who want to loosen Iran’s grip on Iraq would be wise to maintain pressure and close monitoring on political issues where the court has overstepped: the election and government formation processes, the various disputes between Baghdad and Erbil, and Iraq’s international obligations, including agreements with Gulf states. Countering Iranian influence inside the judiciary itself will require the West to play the long game, in part by developing academic cooperation and training for the next generation of judges. This approach would align with Zaidan’s yearning for international recognition, as evident in his trips to London and Paris and his recent request to visit the United States.

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Iraq Nov crude output below Opec+ target: Somo

Argus Media Iraq's crude production dropped by 96,000 b/d on the month to 4.093mn b/d in November, according to state-owned Somo, leaving output 127,000 b/d below its Opec+ output target. Iraq has been one of the Opec+ group's serial overproducers, exceeding its target by an average of 123,000 b/d between August-October. But Baghdad in November confirmed its commitment to its pledged output target and gave repeated assurances during the Opec+ meeting on 30 November that it will fully comply with the cuts. The recent Opec+ meeting resulted in Iraq's output target being reduced to 4mn b/d, effective from 1 January. Export loadings from the southern Basrah oil terminal averaged 3.393mn b/d in November, a 92,000 b/d decrease from 3.485mn b/d in October, Somo said. Neighbouring Jordan received 6,000 b/d of Iraqi crude in November, down from 15,000 b/d in October. Bad weather at Basrah ports and demonstrations at the Iraqi-Jordanian border have resulted in interruptions to oil exports, Somo said, resulting in a 11,000 b/d stock build. The amount of Iraqi crude supplied to domestic refineries fell 406,000 b/d from 600,000 b/d. Somo said Iraq burned around 128,000 b/d for power in November, as temperatures fell. Somo in previous months provided a generic 15,000 b/d to 20,000 b/d figure for crude burn, depending on the months of the year and temperatures. Somo estimates put production in the northern semi-autonomous Kurdistan region at 116,000 b/d, all delivered to refineries in the north as exports have been shut in since 25 March. "Iraqi government is not aware of and responsible for any extra quantities produced and smuggled from [the Kurdistan region]," an oil ministry source told Argus. The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur), an industry body representing IOCs operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, today said it is ready to discuss the return of crude exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline [ITP], but said it has neither been included in the meetings between Iraq's federal government and the KRG nor invited to participate in any future meetings. "We believe concrete solutions can be implemented immediately that will satisfy all parties, protect the contractual rights of the IOCs and enable the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq," Apikur said.

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Iraq demands access to evidence gathered by UN team investigating ISIS crimes

The National Baghdad said on Monday that it has yet to receive any evidence from a UN investigation into potential war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide committed by ISIS, saying it was delaying prosecutorial efforts in Iraqi courts. “We reiterate that until this moment, the Iraqi government has not received any evidence from Unitad [UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Daesh/ISIL] that could be used in criminal proceedings,” Abbas Al Saltlawi, Iraq's chargé d'affaires at the UN, told the 15-member Security Council. “We only received reports and summaries that have no legal value before national courts.” He stressed that Iraqi authorities view this as a breach of UN Security Council resolutions regarding the matter and that Unitad must provide evidence of ISIS crimes against the Iraqi population to ensure accountability and justice. Iraq has voiced increasing frustration with Unitad – which was established in 2017 – accusing it of withholding evidence due to concerns about the death penalty in local trials. Evidence has, however, been shared with third parties, including western governments prosecuting ISIS fighters. As per UN Resolution 2379, the evidence obtained by the UN team is to be used “before national courts, and complementing investigations being carried out by the Iraqi authorities or investigations carried out by authorities in third countries at their request”. Dr Al Saltlawi insisted that all evidence “must be provided, whether those acquired by the team or those received from Iraq and developed using advanced technology, handing over all this evidence to the Iraqi government to be used before Iraqi courts”. Iraq has refused to extend the mandate of the Unitad beyond September 2024 as Baghdad and the mission have been unable to resolve the impasse over the death penalty. Robert Wood, the US deputy ambassador to the UN, underscored the implications of a “hasty and premature” closure of Unitad as Iraq continues its “transition from conflict to stability and prosperity”. And Christian Ritscher, special adviser and head of the investigative team said the international community “must ensure that those who spoke up against ISIS crimes are not let down or left behind”. “We must ensure their security and address the trauma they suffered,” he said. “We must ensure that those who have not spoken up yet can do so in a safe and welcoming forum.”  

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Opec+ cut effect on tanker markets probably muted

Argus Media The voluntary crude output cuts announced by Opec+ this week for the first quarter of next year are unlikely to seriously depress tanker rates because of seasonal effects and greater demand for freight from producing countries outside the alliance. Six Opec+ members agreed to 700,000 b/d worth of voluntary crude production cuts in the first quarter of 2024, and Saudi Arabia said it will extend its existing 1mn b/d cut over the same period, all in addition to a previous round of voluntary cuts announced in April. Very large crude carriers (VLCC) may under-perform other segments in the near-term as the largest output reductions are in the Mideast Gulf, a major loading region for the 2mn bl tankers. The cuts imply seven to eight fewer VLCCs needed for the first quarter of 2024, according to bank Jefferies. But with very few new tankers joining the global fleet because of record-low newbuilding orders, the arrival of the seasonally-strong winter period, and disruptions such as the Panama Canal logjam, rates are likely to be well-supported, especially for midsize crude and product tankers. Production cuts this year have not necessarily meant a reduction in exports. Speaking before Opec's announcement, shipowner Frontline's chief executive Lars Barstad said "output and production are not exports." "What we've experienced since August this year, for instance from Saudi Arabia, is that their exports have actually increased," he said. "Also, if we look at… all Opec producers, we've actually seen the same trend… Middle Eastern exports are actually more correlated to the temperature in the Middle East over the summer when they consume a lot for cooling, rather than the stated kind of production quotas." Tankers are less sensitive to Opec+ decisions given crude production growth elsewhere. The new cuts will be in place for 91 days, presenting a short-term headwind for tankers, but Jefferies said with crude production from outside Opec+ forecast to ramp up by 1.2mn b/d between April and September 2024, an unwind of the latest cuts in that period could create a significant increase in cargo volume. "It's oil revenues that is what really matters for [Opec+ members]," Frontline's Barstad said. "And commitment to balance in the oil market is probably difficult for Opec, considering all the alternative sources of crude we currently have", pointing to supply from the US, south America, the North Sea and west Africa. With east Asia the centre for demand, the number of long-haul voyages will likely increase. "I'm tempted to say [the Opec+ decision is] flat out positive," Barstad said. By Matthew Mitchell

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Iraq, Kurdish authorities yet to agree oil exports to Turkey

The New Arab Key obstacles remain in the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq to Turkey, Iraqi officials and Kurdish experts have told The New Arab, including renegotiating contract terms with international oil companies that operate in the autonomous territory.  Earlier this month, Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said that Baghdad could reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and international companies within three days to resume production and export of oil to Turkey. Three weeks later, a breakthrough on the issue remains elusive, despite the cash-strapped KRG urgently needing funds to pay teachers and public sector officials. "The issue is still being discussed and negotiated," Asim Jihad, the spokesperson of Iraq’s Oil Ministry on Monday told The New Arab.  Karwan Hama Saleh, deputy-chairman of the Mesopotamia Foundation for Strategic Studies (MASS), recently explained that the delay in resolving the crisis was in part due to international companies not being ready to alter service contract terms with the Iraqi federal government.  "Currently, the main obstacle is the contracts that the KRG has signed with oil companies which are Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) while Iraq has service contracts with the companies, therefore Iraq does not want to shoulder the responsibility of those PSCs," he told The New Arab. MASS recently held a conference to attempt to resolve the issue between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish authorities. Hama Salih, an expert on economics and leadership who spoke at the conference, said that in order for Baghdad and Erbil to find a middle ground, the Iraqi government should open the gates to all oil and gas companies to invest across the country. If a solution to the oil production issue is not found soon, then more problems will set in, Salih warned, particularly due to concurrent regional crises.   "Because of Israel's war on Gaza, Europe's need for energy has increased. Although the Kurdistan region's oil has no great impact on the world’s energy map, Europe is ambitious [about] the region's oil," Salih said.  "Therefore, we hope the Kurdistan region exploits these opportunities with an open mind and out of personal interests."   Other panelists have also stressed that the oil and gas issue, if handled correctly, could bring Baghdad and Erbil closer together, not further apart.    Iraqi Kurdistan began exporting oil independently to Turkey without the federal government's consent in 2014, sparking reprisals from Baghdad. Since 25 March, Ankara had ceased importing 450,000 barrels from the Kurdistan region, after an international tribunal found that Baghdad was correct to insist on overseeing all exports of Iraqi oil. The tribunal, run by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), ordered Turkey to pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for allowing the KRG to export oil between 2014 and 2018 without the Iraqi government's consent.       

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Missiles and Drones Among Weapons Stolen From U.S. in Iraq and Syria

Draw Media Nick Turse - theintercept. Missiles and Drones Among Weapons Stolen From U.S. in Iraq and Syria Documents reveal “sensitive weapons and equipment” were taken – and the Pentagon may be unaware of the scope of the thefts. U.S. military outposts in Iraq and Syria are plagued by thefts of weapons and equipment, according to exclusive documents obtained by The Intercept that show militias and criminal gangs are systematically targeting U.S. forces. Military investigations launched earlier this year found that “multiple sensitive weapons and equipment” — including guided missile launch systems as well as drones — have been stolen in Iraq. This follows hundreds of thousands of dollars in military gear that were purloined from U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria between 2020 and 2022, as reported earlier this year by The Intercept. America’s bases in Iraq and Syria ostensibly exist to conduct “counter-ISIS missions,” but experts say they are used primarily as a check against Iran. Since the October outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, these bases have come under regular rocket and drone attacks as part of an undeclared war between the U.S. and Iran and its surrogate militias. Join Our Newsletter Original reporting. Fearless journalism. Delivered to you. I'm in The U.S. has increasingly responded to those attacks. In Syria, the U.S. launched “precision strikes” on a “training facility and a safe house” allegedly used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. has since employed an AC-130 gunship against an “Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel” at an undisclosed location, following a ballistic missile attack on Al Asad Air Base in Western Iraq. “The President has no higher priority than the safety of U.S. personnel,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, justifying U.S. strikes. But the criminal investigation documents obtained by The Intercept demonstrate that the U.S. cannot even secure its equipment, much less protect its troops. “We don’t tend to think nearly critically enough about the ripple effects of such an expansive U.S. military footprint,” Stephanie Savell, co-director of Brown University’s Costs of War Project, told The Intercept. “The so-called war on terror isn’t over — it’s just morphed. And we can understand these weapons thefts as just one of the many political costs of that ongoing campaign.”   Details about the thefts in Iraq, which were never made public by the military, are found in criminal investigations files obtained via the Freedom of Information Act. In February, military investigators were notified that 13 commercial drones, valued at about $162,500, were stolen from a U.S. facility in Erbil, Iraq, sometime last year. The agents identified no suspects, and no leads are mentioned in the file. A separate investigation discovered that “multiple sensitive weapons and equipment” including targeting sight and launcher units for Javelin missiles — a shoulder-fired guided missile that locks on its targets — were stolen at or en route to Forward Operating Base Union III in Baghdad, Iraq. The loss to the U.S. government was estimated at almost $480,000. Investigators did not believe the thefts were an inside job. “No known U.S. personnel were involved,” according to a criminal investigations file. The investigators instead refer to locals as the likely suspects. “Iraqi criminal organizations and militia groups target convoys and containers for weapons and equipment,” the document stated. “Further there have been systemic issues with U.S. containers being pilfered by these groups and local nationals outside of Union III, due to the lack of security.” Related   Thieves Rip Off U.S. Weapons as Shadow War in Syria Escalates   Earlier this year, The Intercept revealed at least four significant thefts and one loss of U.S. weapons and equipment in Iraq and Syria from 2020 to 2022, including 40mm high-explosive grenades, armor-piercing rounds, specialized field artillery tools and equipment, and unspecified “weapons systems.” Two of the incidents took place at bases in Syria, and three were in Iraq. None of those thefts occurred at Forward Operating Base Union III.   Just how many thefts have occurred is unknown — perhaps even to the Pentagon. After more than two months, both Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, which oversees America’s war in Iraq and Syria, and its parent organization, U.S. Central Command, failed to respond to any of The Intercept’s questions about weapons thefts in Iraq and Syria. Earlier this year, the task force admitted that it does not know the extent of the problem: A spokesperson said the task force has no record of any thefts from U.S. forces. “[W]e do not have the requested information,” Capt. Kevin T. Livingston, then CJTF-OIR’s director of public affairs, told The Intercept when asked if any weapons, ammunition, or equipment were stolen in the last five years.   The thefts and losses uncovered by The Intercept are just the latest weapons accountability woes to afflict the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria. A 2017 investigation by the Pentagon’s inspector general found $20 million of weapons in Kuwait and Iraq were “vulnerable to loss or theft.” A 2020 audit discovered that Special Operations Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, the main unit that works with America’s Syrian allies, did not properly account for $715.8 million of equipment purchased for those local surrogates. Groups like Amnesty International and Conflict Armament Research also found that a substantial portion of the Islamic State group’s arsenal was composed of U.S.-made or U.S.-purchased weapons and ammunition captured, stolen, or otherwise obtained from the Iraqi Army and Syrian fighters.  Losses of weapons and ammunition are significant — and the military has taken pains to prevent them in the past. When the U.S. withdrew forces from an outpost near Kobani, Syria, in 2019, it conducted airstrikes on ammunition that was left behind. The military also destroyed equipment and ammunition during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Still, within weeks of the U.S. defeat, American-made pistols, rifles, grenades, binoculars, and night-vision goggles flooded weapons shops there. Others were exported to Pakistan. Related   Joe Biden Moves to Lift Nearly Every Restriction on Israel’s Access to U.S. Weapons Stockpile   Since the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza, it’s become ever more apparent that U.S. bases in the Middle East serve as magnets for attack, although far-flung outposts have been periodically targeted in other conflict zones. In 2019, for example, the terrorist group al-Shabab assaulted a U.S. base in Baledogle, Somalia. The next year, the same group raided a longtime American outpost in Kenya, killing three Americans and wounding two others. In recent weeks, America’s bases in Iraq and Syria have sometimes come under persistent attack, including as many as four strikes by drones and rockets in a 24-hour period. U.S. forces have been attacked more than 70 times — 36 times in Iraq, 37 in Syria — since October 17. More than 60 U.S. personnel have been wounded, according to Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh. The investigation files obtained by The Intercept offer evidence that U.S. military bases also provide tempting targets for criminals. Earlier this year, The Intercept reported on a daring daylight armed robbery of military contractors less than a mile from the entrance of Air Base 201, a large U.S. drone outpost in Niger. In 2013, a U.S. Special Operations compound in Libya was looted of hundreds of weapons along with armored vehicles. And a 2021 Associated Press investigation found that at least 1,900 military weapons were lost or stolen during the 2010s — from bases stretching from Afghanistan to North Carolina — and that some were then used in violent crimes.

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Sudani was informed of the Erbil talks

A week after his return from Kurdistan, the federal oil minister briefed on the outcome of the talks in Erbil, but Baghdad has not yet made its decision on the proposals for the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani chaired the periodic meeting on Sunday to oversee the Oil Ministry and its projects, focusing on implementing plans aimed at developing Iraq's oil sector. Attended by the Oil Minister, senior officials from the ministry, and advisors to the Prime Minister for oil and energy affairs, the meeting reviewed extraction and distribution projects, export initiatives, gas projects, refineries, progress rates, and obstacles hindering implementation. Additionally, it discussed investment opportunities announced by the ministry for 2023. The Prime Minister stressed the vital importance of enhancing this pivotal sector, given its linkage to national plans and desired development. He highlighted the significance of utilizing the increased global oil prices to boost financial allocations through optimal oil and gas investments. Al Sudani emphasized that oil constitutes the primary income source, and the government is focused on developing the oil sector along with other industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, per its governmental program. Moreover, efforts extend to improving the electricity sector, implementing an integrated energy projects plan, and ensuring continued support through solutions, policies, and decisions. During the meeting, Al Sudani was briefed on the discussions between the federal Oil Ministry and the Natural Resources Ministry in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) regarding resuming crude oil re-exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It is noteworthy that oil flow from Kurdistan and Kirkuk to the Ceyhan port in Turkey ceased on March 25 due to an International Arbitration Court ruling concerning oil exports between Turkey and Iraq.

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"It is unconstitutional for party leader to force candidate to resign"

The Supreme Federal Court, the highest judicial authority in Iraq, clarified on Sunday the justifications behind its decision to terminate the membership of the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and the constitutional articles it relied on. The Court stated that "The principles of the Supreme Federal Court in Case No. 9/Federal/2023 (Termination of Al-Halbousi's Membership) are as follows: Any party leader compelling their affiliated candidates to submit resignation requests and retaining them for future use violates constitutional principles, values, and provisions of Articles (5, 6, 14, 16, 17, 20, 39, 50) of the Constitution. This represents a significant deviation in the democratic process, not recognized by the majority of parliaments worldwide. It cannot in any way negate the will of the people, represented by the Iraqi Parliament, through the parliamentary speaker." The Court continued, affirming its authority to terminate the membership of a parliamentarian whose term has legally expired based on evidence of violating constitutional and legal obligations, citing provisions of the Constitution, particularly the Parliament Law and its formations. The Court holds absolute discretionary power to assess such cases based on facts, evidence, and investigations conducted by it. It further highlighted that its competence lies in ruling on appeals regarding the legitimacy of a member's membership and the verdict to end it, not as a result but as a consequence of its jurisdiction to terminate the membership according to Article 12 of the Parliament Law and its formations No. 13 for the year 2018. This becomes a consequence of the proven termination of membership by law, affirming that the defendant, the Speaker of the Parliament, utilized resignation requests submitted by the plaintiff after tampering and altering them, necessitating the termination of his membership. The Court affirmed that relying on Article 52 of the Constitution is impossible when a parliamentarian is proven to have committed constitutional and legal violations, especially the breach of oath referred to in Article 50 of the Constitution. This precludes the continuation of their membership in the council, necessitating the ruling to end their membership. It is noteworthy that the Supreme Federal Court had issued a decision on Tuesday, November 14th, to terminate the membership of the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, based on a lawsuit alleging "forgery" filed by MP Laith Delaimi. Following the Court's decision, Al-Halbousi stated during a session of the Parliament that "there are those seeking to fragment the political components of society."

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US extends sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iran

The Biden administration has extended by four months a sanctions waiver that will allow Iraq to continue to purchase electricity from Iran and gives Iran limited access to the proceeds to buy humanitarian goods. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed the 120-day waiver extension and it was transmitted to Congress on Tuesday, U.S. officials said. The move is likely to draw criticism from Iran hawks on Capitol Hill and elsewhere who believe the extension will reward Iran at a time when it is coming under increasing pressure to end its support for proxy groups, including Hamas, that are destabilizing the Middle East. There is roughly $10 billion in Iraqi payments for Iranian electricity currently being held in escrow accounts in Iraq, and the waiver will allow Baghdad to maintain its energy imports without fear of U.S. penalties for violating sanctions on Iran. It will also keep in place a provision — included in the last 120-day waiver — under which portions of the electricity proceeds can be transferred to accounts in Oman and then converted to euros or other widely traded currencies for Iran to buy non-sanctioned products. OTHER NEWS The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the decision-making process, said Blinken signed the waiver mainly because the administration doesn’t want to cut Iraq off from a critical source of energy. But they said the administration is confident Iran will not be able to use any of the money for nefarious purposes. They said a rigorous vetting process is in place to ensure that the cash can only be used for food, medicine, medical equipment and agricultural goods. Blinken visited Baghdad on Nov. 5 and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the course of a Middle East trip focused on the Israel-Hamas war and efforts to prevent it from spreading into a broader regional conflict. The officials added that only a small amount of the money held in Iraq had been transferred to Oman during the past 120 days and that none of the money now held in Omani banks had yet been spent. The waiver is similar to one signed by Blinken earlier this year, which freed up some $6 billion that South Korea had paid to Iran for oil imports in exchange for the release of Americans held prisoner by Tehran. Under that waiver, the money held by South Korea was transferred to banks in Qatar and is also restricted for the purchase of humanitarian supplies. However, Iran hawks point out that the waivers can allow Iran to free up domestic revenue it would have otherwise spent on humanitarian goods to fund proxies like Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.  

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Three Iraqi government ministers resign over house speaker's ouster

The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court ended the term of parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi on Tuesday, a move that caused several allies of his to resign from the government. The court said it “terminated” the membership of Halbusi as well as parliament member Laith Al-Dulaimi, the official Iraqi News Agency reported. The outlet did not provide further details. Reuters reported that the decision related to an unspecified case brought against Halbusi earlier this year. The Associated Press reported that Dulaimi had filed a lawsuit against Halbusi claiming the speaker forged Dulaimi’s signature on a resignation letter. The speaker of the parliament must be a Sunni Muslim in Iraq’s sectarian power-sharing system of governance. Halbusi and Dulaimi are both Sunni. Halbousi's Progress Party slammed the decision as "blatantly unconstitutional" in a statement later on Tuesday, and announced the resignation of three of its ministers from the government: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning Muhammad Ali Tamim, Industry Minister Khaled Battal Al Najm, and Culture Minister Ahmed Fakkak Al-Badrani. The party added that its lawmakers would boycott parliamentary sessions. Why it matters: Halbusi, is the most prominent Sunni politician in Iraq. He was first elected to his position in 2018, becoming the youngest speaker in Iraqi history at only 37 years old. He was reelected to a second term early last year. He previously served as governor of western Anbar province. Halbusi was seen as close to both the United States and Iran when he was elected. A former businessman, he has been credited with facilitating economic growth in Anbar. In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in May, Halbusi said young Iraqis are tired of regional conflicts, and he called for greater ties between Iraq and Arab states. The speaker has faced political trouble recently. Halbusi and his Progress Party have been accused of various forms of corruption, leading to growing opposition to him in Anbar, journalist Simona Foltyn wrote for the London School of Economics in June. Tensions have been simmering between Halbusi and the ruling Coordination Framework. The framework is an umbrella group of Shiite political parties that nominated Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani last year. It includes former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition, as well as the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, among others.  Halbusi had originally tried to form a government with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The latter is a rival of the Coordination Framework, and Halbusi's efforts angered parties within the group. Halbusi's Progress Party and the KDP ultimately joined the Coordination Framework in the current government.  The tensions between Halbusi and other Iraqi factions are not new. Shortly after his reelection in January 2022, Halbusi’s home was targeted by rockets. The speaker has been repeatedly threatened by Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Al-Monitor reported at the time. What’s next: Two parliamentary officials told the AP that the court decision cannot be appealed and the parliament will need to elect a new speaker. First Deputy Speaker Mohsen Al-Mandalawi will lead the parliament in the interim, they said.

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The Hamas delegation’s rare visit to Iraq

In a rare visit, a Hamas delegation arrived in Baghdad on Oct. 27 at the invitation of Iraqi Shiite armed groups. The five-member group was headed by senior Hamas figure Osama Hamdan, who was notably accompanied by Mohammed Al-Hafi from the Palestinian movement’s Bureau for Arab and Islamic Relations. Ambiguity has loomed over the details of the visit, which comes amid concerns that Iraq may be dragged into a regional conflagration sparked by the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza. However, multiple informed sources confirmed to Amwaj.media that the Palestinians met with a number of Iraqi leaders. The trip also notably follows what was supposed to be a historic tour of Iraq last month by Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh. That visit was canceled at the last minute on Oct. 7 after news emerged that Hamas fighters had stormed Israeli communities near Gaza.   Behind closed doors The Hamas delegation’s visit took place at the invitation of some Shiite armed groups loyal to the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’—including Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba and Kata’ib Hezbollah. The Hamas members met with the former secretary-general of Kata’ib Hezbollah, Abdulaziz (Abu Fadak) Al-Muhammadawi, who currently serves as chief of staff of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). The visiting Palestinians additionally met with the head of Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, Qais Al-Khazali. Of note, Khazali on Oct. 10 spoke with Haniyeh, expressing his “utmost readiness for any effort to liberate Al-Quds [Jerusalem] and support the Palestinian people.” Speaking on condition of anonymity, one source with knowledge of the meetings in Baghdad told Amwaj.media that the Hamas delegation briefed its Iraqi hosts on developments in the Gaza Strip—including the ongoing military operations. The source elaborated that the Iraqis were requested to increase their diplomatic intervention in relation to the Gaza crisis. The Hamas delegation is said to also have urged its counterparts to lobby the Iraqi government to liaise with the Lebanese government about paving the way for Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement to increase its military support for the Palestinian cause. Amwaj.media could not independently verify the latter claim. However, senior Hamas official Khaled Meshaal on Oct. 16 notably charged that “Hezbollah has preoccupied [Israeli forces] in southern Lebanon; we are thankful for that, and it is good…however, in my estimation, this battle requires more [to be done].” Insisting that his name be withheld given the sensitivity of the meetings, the source told Amwaj.media that the Iraqi side did not confirm that it would act upon the Palestinian requests, or what the next moves may be. However, the Iraqis are said to have pledged to relay the Hamas delegation’s message to the Iraqi government. Against this backdrop, the Hamas delegation notably did not hold any public meeting with officials from the administration of Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani (2022-). However, the same source asserted to Amwaj.media that Hamdan did in fact meet with some of Sudani’s advisors, without naming any of the individuals. While Baghdad appears to have given the green light for the visit, the claimed meeting with the government advisors is alleged to have been held in secrecy. If true, the latter appears geared to avoid any friction with Washington by portraying Iraq as neutral and not having ties with Hamas—even as Sudani has repeatedly expressed support for the Palestinians and their “right to resist Zionist injustice and terrorism” in the weeks after the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel.   Iraq-Hamas relations The main element that binds Iraqi Shiite armed groups and Hamas is their shared affiliation with the ‘Axis of Resistance’, including Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. Speaking to Amwaj.media, Iraqi political science professor Mohammad Al-Azzi explained that inviting Hamas to visit Iraq is perceived to be a part of efforts by Iraqi groups to show their supporters that they support the Palestinian cause. Azzi also explained that the Palestinian movement’s acceptance of the invitation is viewed as geared to open new fronts to weaken US forces in the region, and thus Israel. Amid the Hamas delegation’s visit, one key question that surfaced is why there was no meeting with representatives of the Sadrist Movement. Like its Shiite rivals such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Peace Brigades affiliated with the Sadrists are also capable of striking US forces in Iraq. In this vein, Sadrist leader Muqtada Al-Sadr in a statement posted on Twitter/X on the day of the Hamas delegation’s arrival called for the US embassy in Baghdad to be shut down over its “support for the Zionist entity.” Addressing the speculations surrounding the absence of a meeting between Hamdan and any Sadrists, Azzi told Amwaj.media that “the Hamas delegation was fearful of Iran’s reaction,” describing Sadr as an Iraqi figure “who opposes Tehran’s policies in Iraq and the region.” The professor further noted that Sadr’s Oct. 27 statement “may well be considered as an indirect comeback…on the Iraqi political stage.” Of note, after failing to form a “national majority” government together with Kurdish and Sunni Arab parties following the Oct. 2021 parliamentary elections, Sadr announced an “exit” from Iraqi politics last year. In the view of Azzi, the Shiite armed groups’ decision to invite Hamas and Sadr’s statement both stem from a common realization of the strong popular support in Iraq for the surprise attack on Israel. Against this backdrop, Shiite political actors are trying to invest in the Palestinian cause to “garner popular support,” especially ahead of the upcoming Iraqi provincial elections, the political science professor argued.   The visit by Hamas and threats to the government Speaking on condition of anonymity as he was unauthorized to publicly comment on the matter, one source affiliated with Sudani’s media office told Amwaj.media that the invitation for Hamas to visit Baghdad is seen as an attempt to embarrass the Iraqi government. Characterizing the invitation as having little to do with the Palestinian cause, the source claimed that the visit was essentially payback for Sudani and some of his allies in the Iran-backed Shiite Coordination Framework having “rejected” the “demands to acquire sensitive security positions ” by some Shiite armed groups.   A separate informed source emphasized to Amwaj.media that there are rifts within the PMU’s leadership. Armed groups loyal to the ‘Axis of Resistance’ are locked in a dispute with some elements of the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework—a constellation of Shiite parties which enabled Sudani’s rise to the premiership last year. These dynamics are indicated in PMU Chief of Staff Muhammadawi’s Nov. 2 declaration of a “high readiness to defend the sovereignty of the country and its national borders” in anticipation of “potential emergencies.” This appeared geared to highlight a readiness for possible American attacks following the recent string of drone and rocket strikes on US forces claimed by a new “resistance” entity. Yet, while the alert applies to Muhammadawi’s employer “and other security units,” Prime Minister Sudani is the commander-in-chief of all of Iraq’s armed forces—including the PMU. On the other hand, alleged documents attributed to the Iraqi defense ministry that have been circulating on social media speak of the need to redistribute and secure arms depots, redistribute aircraft among bases, secure means of transportation for senior officials as well as communications equipment, and activate efforts by the intelligence services to deter any possible threats. These alleged instructions, if true, indicate that the Iraqi government may be preparing for a confrontation.   Looking ahead Observers are wary of a possible deterioration in the security situation in Iraq, including a potential confrontation between Shiite armed groups and the government.  Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior source affiliated with the Shiite Coordination Framework told Amwaj.media that armed elements will continue to target US assets inside Iraq or along the border with Syria to embarrass the Sudani government and drag it into war. Baghdad has strongly rejected the attacks and urged calm and dialogue. Iraqi security researcher Ali Abd Al-Ilah told Amwaj.media that a deterioration of security conditions is imminent because of the dispute between the Iraqi government and some Shiite armed groups. However, he also said that the US is unlikely to launch a large-scale response to the attacks on its forces in recent weeks, saying that “the possible US responses to those attacks may include targeting PMU convoys or senior figures to prompt the armed groups to limit their operations against American assets in the region.” According to Abd Al-Ilah, Washington has an interest in limiting its response because it “realizes that triggering chaos in the current period may pave the way for a new crisis that the US does not need.” For now, the situation in Iraq remains overall calm—albeit potentially before a storm. The country may be on a path to being dragged into a new war in parallel with, or in relation to, the war between Hamas and Israel. The prospect of a domestic confrontation is also real unless there are stronger efforts to forge de-escalation and dialogue.

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Kurdistan oil smuggled to Turkey and Iran

Has Iraq violated the OPEC Plus agreement? Nabil Marsumi - Economist Iraq has reiterated its commitment to the OPEC Plus agreement and its production quota of 4.22 million barrels per day. Iraq's oil exports rose to 3.533 million barrels per day in October, the highest level this year, due to lower domestic consumption. However, a recent report showed that Iraq's oil production increased by 180,000 barrels per day, above the level set by OPEC Plus. Iraq's oil production rose to 4.4 million barrels per day in October, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. This increase is largely due to weak monitoring of oil investment in Kurdistan, which is partly used domestically and partly smuggled by tankers to Turkey and Iran.

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Will Iraq agree to new Turkmen-majority governorate?

For years, members of Iraq’s Turkmen community have demanded that Tal Afar be elevated from its current status as a district in Nineveh to that of a full governorate. These calls have intensified as the Iraqi government is considering agreeing to Halabja in Iraqi Kurdistan becoming the country’s 19th governorate. In response, Turkmen MPs earlier this year began collecting signatures to add a draft legislation about Tal Afar’s status to the parliamentary agenda. On Apr. 2, Badr Organization MP Gharib Turkmani announced that the effort had succeeded and that the matter would be discussed in future sessions. Months later, there is no movement on the issue. Meanwhile, objections from some Arab and Turkmen political parties over the lack of similar projects for other regions, including Tal Afar, have halted the establishment of a new Kurdish governorate. Tal Afar is the largest district in Iraq’s northern Nineveh Governorate, bordering the districts of Hatra, Mosul, and Sinjar along with Duhok Governorate in Iraqi Kurdistan. It has an estimated population of 511,000 residents, according to the National Center for Statistics in the Ministry of Planning. Its main population center is home to some 215,000 people, evenly divided between Sunni and Shiite Turkmens. Some 295,000 people reside in Tal Afar’s outlying districts, including Sunni Turkmens in Al-Ayadiyah, Sunni Arabs in Rabia, and a combination of Sunni Arabs and Kurds in Zummar. The latter is a part of the so-called disputed areas and claimed by both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Beyond ethnic tensions, it should be noted that the area around Tal Afar has also been the scene of intense sectarian conflict since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. It was occupied by the Islamic State group (IS) in 2014, before being liberated in 2017. Many of its former residents remain displaced and have not returned home, including a significant number of Sunnis who fled to Turkey and decided to settle there.   What a new governorate means Elevating Tal Afar’s status to a full governorate would be a major step for the Iraqi Turkmen community because it would be the first time that they would constitute the numerical majority in a governorate. Numbering 2-3M, the Turkmen community is the third-largest ethnic group in Iraq, after Arabs and Kurds, and is split evenly between Shiites and Sunnis. At present, Turkmen political power is splintered across several governorates, including Kirkuk, Salah Al-Din, and Nineveh. Endowed with new administrative powers, the proposed governorate would replace Kirkuk as the center of the Turkmen political world. Turkmeneli Party chairperson Riyaz Sarkahya told Amwaj.media that “the project of turning Tal Afar into a governorate is a strategic goal for most Turkmen political forces.” If realized, the new governorate would strengthen the community’s political position in a part of Iraq where it has generally been marginalized by Nineveh Governorate’s overall Sunni Arab majority. Moreover, such a move would represent an opportunity to increase funding to rebuild the area following the war against IS, including Tal Afar city which was 70% destroyed during the conflict. Turkmen nationalists also want to leverage the area’s location on the border with Turkey to increase trade by embarking on new infrastructure projects. For example, the proposed “Development Road” and Dry Canal project, which are geared to connect southern Iraq with Turkey, traverse the area. But not all observers see the proposed new governorate as the panacea offered up by its supporters. Jaafar Talafari, a Turkmen writer and lawyer, downplayed the significance of Tal Afar enjoying governorate status. He argued that residents are more concerned with practical issues like jobs and good public services. “For the citizens of Tal Afar, the project to turn the city into a governorate is a matter of administration and service,” Talafari told Amwaj.media, “It is not a political issue. As a city, we have all the necessary components to become a governorate, [but] we want to have service departments that can meet the growing needs of citizens.”   Changes for Sunni Arabs The Sunni Arab community is concerned about Tal Afar gaining governorate status for economic and political reasons. First, Sunni parties in Nineveh would lose votes from Sunni Turkmens who would no longer be a part of the constituency. Second, Sunni Arabs worry that the new governorate will be controlled by Shiite forces, which could contribute to what they see as problematic demographic change in northern Iraq. Finally, it would cut off direct access from Mosul to Turkey. Ammar Kahya, a Turkmen politician from Kirkuk, downplayed these considerations by pointing out that the majority of Tal Afar’s population is Sunni, and especially outlying districts. He told Amwaj.media, “The fears of the Arabs stem from the possibility that their political role will decline as a result of the separation of Tal Afar from Mosul.” He also noted that the Sunni population would increase if more Turkmens who were displaced by IS would return home. A more remote concern for Sunni Arabs is that separating Tal Afar from Nineveh will stall efforts to establish a new Sunni region under Iraq’s constitution, similar to neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan. Supporters of the proposal for a semi-autonomous Sunni region argue that once such an entity is set up, Tal Afar can be made a governorate within such a structure.   Competition between Iran and Turkey Last but certainly not least, geopolitical concerns are also a factor in the debate on whether Tal Afar should become a full governorate. Iran maintains close ties with Iraq's Shiite population as a way to exert influence over its neighbor, including by supporting political parties and armed groups. This reach has extended to Tal Afar, which has a significant Shiite population. Iranian activity in the area has increased in recent years as a part of the fight against IS. Many Turkmen forces within the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) have allied with Tehran and used Tal Afar’s strategic location on the Syrian border to support Iran’s cross-border activities. Firas Elias, a professor at Mosul University who specializes in Iraqi and Iranian affairs, told Amwaj.media that “the attempt to establish a Tal Afar Governorate is a political issue with regional implications.” In his view, “Shiite forces” are pursuing the project because they want to “strengthen their influence in the Iraqi, Turkish, and Syrian tri-border region.” Turkey would likely challenge any Iranian bid for dominance of a new governorate. Ankara has strong historical and cultural ties with the Turkmen and Sunni communities in Tal Afar. Leveraging the city's location on a major international transportation route would be an economic boon for Turkey. Competition between the two regional powers, however, could undermine efforts to economically develop the area. While the Turkmen community sees the elevation of Tal Afar to Iraq’s 20th governorate as an important step in building its power within Iraq, the proposal will face opposition from a number of constituencies. Sunni Arabs worry that it will empower local Shiites, while Baghdad will be keen to avoid further geopolitical competition between Iran and Turkey within its borders. As a result, it remains unclear whether the proposal will advance—at least any time soon.  

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October exports hit 8-month high

The northern export pipeline was offline for a seventh straight month, but Iraq has now compensated for about half the lost volumes with increased oil sales via southern outlets. Iraq exported 3.534 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in October, the highest nationwide monthly average since March, and up from 3.438 million bpd in September, according to preliminary Oil Ministry data.  The federal government has now increased its oil exports by over 200,000 bpd since the March shutdown of the northern export pipeline to Turkey, which ended the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) ability to sell oil independently on the international market. Iraq has made up for about half of the lost KRG volumes with increased production from southern fields and exports through Basra Gulf outlets, which are now operating near their maximum sustainable capacity. Southern export volumes have not been this high since September 2019.

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