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Iraq, Kurdish authorities yet to agree oil exports to Turkey

The New Arab Key obstacles remain in the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq to Turkey, Iraqi officials and Kurdish experts have told The New Arab, including renegotiating contract terms with international oil companies that operate in the autonomous territory.  Earlier this month, Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said that Baghdad could reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and international companies within three days to resume production and export of oil to Turkey. Three weeks later, a breakthrough on the issue remains elusive, despite the cash-strapped KRG urgently needing funds to pay teachers and public sector officials. "The issue is still being discussed and negotiated," Asim Jihad, the spokesperson of Iraq’s Oil Ministry on Monday told The New Arab.  Karwan Hama Saleh, deputy-chairman of the Mesopotamia Foundation for Strategic Studies (MASS), recently explained that the delay in resolving the crisis was in part due to international companies not being ready to alter service contract terms with the Iraqi federal government.  "Currently, the main obstacle is the contracts that the KRG has signed with oil companies which are Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) while Iraq has service contracts with the companies, therefore Iraq does not want to shoulder the responsibility of those PSCs," he told The New Arab. MASS recently held a conference to attempt to resolve the issue between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish authorities. Hama Salih, an expert on economics and leadership who spoke at the conference, said that in order for Baghdad and Erbil to find a middle ground, the Iraqi government should open the gates to all oil and gas companies to invest across the country. If a solution to the oil production issue is not found soon, then more problems will set in, Salih warned, particularly due to concurrent regional crises.   "Because of Israel's war on Gaza, Europe's need for energy has increased. Although the Kurdistan region's oil has no great impact on the world’s energy map, Europe is ambitious [about] the region's oil," Salih said.  "Therefore, we hope the Kurdistan region exploits these opportunities with an open mind and out of personal interests."   Other panelists have also stressed that the oil and gas issue, if handled correctly, could bring Baghdad and Erbil closer together, not further apart.    Iraqi Kurdistan began exporting oil independently to Turkey without the federal government's consent in 2014, sparking reprisals from Baghdad. Since 25 March, Ankara had ceased importing 450,000 barrels from the Kurdistan region, after an international tribunal found that Baghdad was correct to insist on overseeing all exports of Iraqi oil. The tribunal, run by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), ordered Turkey to pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for allowing the KRG to export oil between 2014 and 2018 without the Iraqi government's consent.       

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Missiles and Drones Among Weapons Stolen From U.S. in Iraq and Syria

Draw Media Nick Turse - theintercept. Missiles and Drones Among Weapons Stolen From U.S. in Iraq and Syria Documents reveal “sensitive weapons and equipment” were taken – and the Pentagon may be unaware of the scope of the thefts. U.S. military outposts in Iraq and Syria are plagued by thefts of weapons and equipment, according to exclusive documents obtained by The Intercept that show militias and criminal gangs are systematically targeting U.S. forces. Military investigations launched earlier this year found that “multiple sensitive weapons and equipment” — including guided missile launch systems as well as drones — have been stolen in Iraq. This follows hundreds of thousands of dollars in military gear that were purloined from U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria between 2020 and 2022, as reported earlier this year by The Intercept. America’s bases in Iraq and Syria ostensibly exist to conduct “counter-ISIS missions,” but experts say they are used primarily as a check against Iran. Since the October outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, these bases have come under regular rocket and drone attacks as part of an undeclared war between the U.S. and Iran and its surrogate militias. Join Our Newsletter Original reporting. Fearless journalism. Delivered to you. I'm in The U.S. has increasingly responded to those attacks. In Syria, the U.S. launched “precision strikes” on a “training facility and a safe house” allegedly used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. has since employed an AC-130 gunship against an “Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel” at an undisclosed location, following a ballistic missile attack on Al Asad Air Base in Western Iraq. “The President has no higher priority than the safety of U.S. personnel,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, justifying U.S. strikes. But the criminal investigation documents obtained by The Intercept demonstrate that the U.S. cannot even secure its equipment, much less protect its troops. “We don’t tend to think nearly critically enough about the ripple effects of such an expansive U.S. military footprint,” Stephanie Savell, co-director of Brown University’s Costs of War Project, told The Intercept. “The so-called war on terror isn’t over — it’s just morphed. And we can understand these weapons thefts as just one of the many political costs of that ongoing campaign.”   Details about the thefts in Iraq, which were never made public by the military, are found in criminal investigations files obtained via the Freedom of Information Act. In February, military investigators were notified that 13 commercial drones, valued at about $162,500, were stolen from a U.S. facility in Erbil, Iraq, sometime last year. The agents identified no suspects, and no leads are mentioned in the file. A separate investigation discovered that “multiple sensitive weapons and equipment” including targeting sight and launcher units for Javelin missiles — a shoulder-fired guided missile that locks on its targets — were stolen at or en route to Forward Operating Base Union III in Baghdad, Iraq. The loss to the U.S. government was estimated at almost $480,000. Investigators did not believe the thefts were an inside job. “No known U.S. personnel were involved,” according to a criminal investigations file. The investigators instead refer to locals as the likely suspects. “Iraqi criminal organizations and militia groups target convoys and containers for weapons and equipment,” the document stated. “Further there have been systemic issues with U.S. containers being pilfered by these groups and local nationals outside of Union III, due to the lack of security.” Related   Thieves Rip Off U.S. Weapons as Shadow War in Syria Escalates   Earlier this year, The Intercept revealed at least four significant thefts and one loss of U.S. weapons and equipment in Iraq and Syria from 2020 to 2022, including 40mm high-explosive grenades, armor-piercing rounds, specialized field artillery tools and equipment, and unspecified “weapons systems.” Two of the incidents took place at bases in Syria, and three were in Iraq. None of those thefts occurred at Forward Operating Base Union III.   Just how many thefts have occurred is unknown — perhaps even to the Pentagon. After more than two months, both Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, which oversees America’s war in Iraq and Syria, and its parent organization, U.S. Central Command, failed to respond to any of The Intercept’s questions about weapons thefts in Iraq and Syria. Earlier this year, the task force admitted that it does not know the extent of the problem: A spokesperson said the task force has no record of any thefts from U.S. forces. “[W]e do not have the requested information,” Capt. Kevin T. Livingston, then CJTF-OIR’s director of public affairs, told The Intercept when asked if any weapons, ammunition, or equipment were stolen in the last five years.   The thefts and losses uncovered by The Intercept are just the latest weapons accountability woes to afflict the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria. A 2017 investigation by the Pentagon’s inspector general found $20 million of weapons in Kuwait and Iraq were “vulnerable to loss or theft.” A 2020 audit discovered that Special Operations Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, the main unit that works with America’s Syrian allies, did not properly account for $715.8 million of equipment purchased for those local surrogates. Groups like Amnesty International and Conflict Armament Research also found that a substantial portion of the Islamic State group’s arsenal was composed of U.S.-made or U.S.-purchased weapons and ammunition captured, stolen, or otherwise obtained from the Iraqi Army and Syrian fighters.  Losses of weapons and ammunition are significant — and the military has taken pains to prevent them in the past. When the U.S. withdrew forces from an outpost near Kobani, Syria, in 2019, it conducted airstrikes on ammunition that was left behind. The military also destroyed equipment and ammunition during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Still, within weeks of the U.S. defeat, American-made pistols, rifles, grenades, binoculars, and night-vision goggles flooded weapons shops there. Others were exported to Pakistan. Related   Joe Biden Moves to Lift Nearly Every Restriction on Israel’s Access to U.S. Weapons Stockpile   Since the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza, it’s become ever more apparent that U.S. bases in the Middle East serve as magnets for attack, although far-flung outposts have been periodically targeted in other conflict zones. In 2019, for example, the terrorist group al-Shabab assaulted a U.S. base in Baledogle, Somalia. The next year, the same group raided a longtime American outpost in Kenya, killing three Americans and wounding two others. In recent weeks, America’s bases in Iraq and Syria have sometimes come under persistent attack, including as many as four strikes by drones and rockets in a 24-hour period. U.S. forces have been attacked more than 70 times — 36 times in Iraq, 37 in Syria — since October 17. More than 60 U.S. personnel have been wounded, according to Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh. The investigation files obtained by The Intercept offer evidence that U.S. military bases also provide tempting targets for criminals. Earlier this year, The Intercept reported on a daring daylight armed robbery of military contractors less than a mile from the entrance of Air Base 201, a large U.S. drone outpost in Niger. In 2013, a U.S. Special Operations compound in Libya was looted of hundreds of weapons along with armored vehicles. And a 2021 Associated Press investigation found that at least 1,900 military weapons were lost or stolen during the 2010s — from bases stretching from Afghanistan to North Carolina — and that some were then used in violent crimes.

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Sudani was informed of the Erbil talks

A week after his return from Kurdistan, the federal oil minister briefed on the outcome of the talks in Erbil, but Baghdad has not yet made its decision on the proposals for the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani chaired the periodic meeting on Sunday to oversee the Oil Ministry and its projects, focusing on implementing plans aimed at developing Iraq's oil sector. Attended by the Oil Minister, senior officials from the ministry, and advisors to the Prime Minister for oil and energy affairs, the meeting reviewed extraction and distribution projects, export initiatives, gas projects, refineries, progress rates, and obstacles hindering implementation. Additionally, it discussed investment opportunities announced by the ministry for 2023. The Prime Minister stressed the vital importance of enhancing this pivotal sector, given its linkage to national plans and desired development. He highlighted the significance of utilizing the increased global oil prices to boost financial allocations through optimal oil and gas investments. Al Sudani emphasized that oil constitutes the primary income source, and the government is focused on developing the oil sector along with other industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, per its governmental program. Moreover, efforts extend to improving the electricity sector, implementing an integrated energy projects plan, and ensuring continued support through solutions, policies, and decisions. During the meeting, Al Sudani was briefed on the discussions between the federal Oil Ministry and the Natural Resources Ministry in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) regarding resuming crude oil re-exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It is noteworthy that oil flow from Kurdistan and Kirkuk to the Ceyhan port in Turkey ceased on March 25 due to an International Arbitration Court ruling concerning oil exports between Turkey and Iraq.

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"It is unconstitutional for party leader to force candidate to resign"

The Supreme Federal Court, the highest judicial authority in Iraq, clarified on Sunday the justifications behind its decision to terminate the membership of the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and the constitutional articles it relied on. The Court stated that "The principles of the Supreme Federal Court in Case No. 9/Federal/2023 (Termination of Al-Halbousi's Membership) are as follows: Any party leader compelling their affiliated candidates to submit resignation requests and retaining them for future use violates constitutional principles, values, and provisions of Articles (5, 6, 14, 16, 17, 20, 39, 50) of the Constitution. This represents a significant deviation in the democratic process, not recognized by the majority of parliaments worldwide. It cannot in any way negate the will of the people, represented by the Iraqi Parliament, through the parliamentary speaker." The Court continued, affirming its authority to terminate the membership of a parliamentarian whose term has legally expired based on evidence of violating constitutional and legal obligations, citing provisions of the Constitution, particularly the Parliament Law and its formations. The Court holds absolute discretionary power to assess such cases based on facts, evidence, and investigations conducted by it. It further highlighted that its competence lies in ruling on appeals regarding the legitimacy of a member's membership and the verdict to end it, not as a result but as a consequence of its jurisdiction to terminate the membership according to Article 12 of the Parliament Law and its formations No. 13 for the year 2018. This becomes a consequence of the proven termination of membership by law, affirming that the defendant, the Speaker of the Parliament, utilized resignation requests submitted by the plaintiff after tampering and altering them, necessitating the termination of his membership. The Court affirmed that relying on Article 52 of the Constitution is impossible when a parliamentarian is proven to have committed constitutional and legal violations, especially the breach of oath referred to in Article 50 of the Constitution. This precludes the continuation of their membership in the council, necessitating the ruling to end their membership. It is noteworthy that the Supreme Federal Court had issued a decision on Tuesday, November 14th, to terminate the membership of the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, based on a lawsuit alleging "forgery" filed by MP Laith Delaimi. Following the Court's decision, Al-Halbousi stated during a session of the Parliament that "there are those seeking to fragment the political components of society."

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US extends sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iran

The Biden administration has extended by four months a sanctions waiver that will allow Iraq to continue to purchase electricity from Iran and gives Iran limited access to the proceeds to buy humanitarian goods. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed the 120-day waiver extension and it was transmitted to Congress on Tuesday, U.S. officials said. The move is likely to draw criticism from Iran hawks on Capitol Hill and elsewhere who believe the extension will reward Iran at a time when it is coming under increasing pressure to end its support for proxy groups, including Hamas, that are destabilizing the Middle East. There is roughly $10 billion in Iraqi payments for Iranian electricity currently being held in escrow accounts in Iraq, and the waiver will allow Baghdad to maintain its energy imports without fear of U.S. penalties for violating sanctions on Iran. It will also keep in place a provision — included in the last 120-day waiver — under which portions of the electricity proceeds can be transferred to accounts in Oman and then converted to euros or other widely traded currencies for Iran to buy non-sanctioned products. OTHER NEWS The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the decision-making process, said Blinken signed the waiver mainly because the administration doesn’t want to cut Iraq off from a critical source of energy. But they said the administration is confident Iran will not be able to use any of the money for nefarious purposes. They said a rigorous vetting process is in place to ensure that the cash can only be used for food, medicine, medical equipment and agricultural goods. Blinken visited Baghdad on Nov. 5 and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the course of a Middle East trip focused on the Israel-Hamas war and efforts to prevent it from spreading into a broader regional conflict. The officials added that only a small amount of the money held in Iraq had been transferred to Oman during the past 120 days and that none of the money now held in Omani banks had yet been spent. The waiver is similar to one signed by Blinken earlier this year, which freed up some $6 billion that South Korea had paid to Iran for oil imports in exchange for the release of Americans held prisoner by Tehran. Under that waiver, the money held by South Korea was transferred to banks in Qatar and is also restricted for the purchase of humanitarian supplies. However, Iran hawks point out that the waivers can allow Iran to free up domestic revenue it would have otherwise spent on humanitarian goods to fund proxies like Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.  

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Three Iraqi government ministers resign over house speaker's ouster

The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court ended the term of parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi on Tuesday, a move that caused several allies of his to resign from the government. The court said it “terminated” the membership of Halbusi as well as parliament member Laith Al-Dulaimi, the official Iraqi News Agency reported. The outlet did not provide further details. Reuters reported that the decision related to an unspecified case brought against Halbusi earlier this year. The Associated Press reported that Dulaimi had filed a lawsuit against Halbusi claiming the speaker forged Dulaimi’s signature on a resignation letter. The speaker of the parliament must be a Sunni Muslim in Iraq’s sectarian power-sharing system of governance. Halbusi and Dulaimi are both Sunni. Halbousi's Progress Party slammed the decision as "blatantly unconstitutional" in a statement later on Tuesday, and announced the resignation of three of its ministers from the government: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning Muhammad Ali Tamim, Industry Minister Khaled Battal Al Najm, and Culture Minister Ahmed Fakkak Al-Badrani. The party added that its lawmakers would boycott parliamentary sessions. Why it matters: Halbusi, is the most prominent Sunni politician in Iraq. He was first elected to his position in 2018, becoming the youngest speaker in Iraqi history at only 37 years old. He was reelected to a second term early last year. He previously served as governor of western Anbar province. Halbusi was seen as close to both the United States and Iran when he was elected. A former businessman, he has been credited with facilitating economic growth in Anbar. In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in May, Halbusi said young Iraqis are tired of regional conflicts, and he called for greater ties between Iraq and Arab states. The speaker has faced political trouble recently. Halbusi and his Progress Party have been accused of various forms of corruption, leading to growing opposition to him in Anbar, journalist Simona Foltyn wrote for the London School of Economics in June. Tensions have been simmering between Halbusi and the ruling Coordination Framework. The framework is an umbrella group of Shiite political parties that nominated Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani last year. It includes former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition, as well as the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, among others.  Halbusi had originally tried to form a government with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The latter is a rival of the Coordination Framework, and Halbusi's efforts angered parties within the group. Halbusi's Progress Party and the KDP ultimately joined the Coordination Framework in the current government.  The tensions between Halbusi and other Iraqi factions are not new. Shortly after his reelection in January 2022, Halbusi’s home was targeted by rockets. The speaker has been repeatedly threatened by Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Al-Monitor reported at the time. What’s next: Two parliamentary officials told the AP that the court decision cannot be appealed and the parliament will need to elect a new speaker. First Deputy Speaker Mohsen Al-Mandalawi will lead the parliament in the interim, they said.

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The Hamas delegation’s rare visit to Iraq

In a rare visit, a Hamas delegation arrived in Baghdad on Oct. 27 at the invitation of Iraqi Shiite armed groups. The five-member group was headed by senior Hamas figure Osama Hamdan, who was notably accompanied by Mohammed Al-Hafi from the Palestinian movement’s Bureau for Arab and Islamic Relations. Ambiguity has loomed over the details of the visit, which comes amid concerns that Iraq may be dragged into a regional conflagration sparked by the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza. However, multiple informed sources confirmed to Amwaj.media that the Palestinians met with a number of Iraqi leaders. The trip also notably follows what was supposed to be a historic tour of Iraq last month by Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh. That visit was canceled at the last minute on Oct. 7 after news emerged that Hamas fighters had stormed Israeli communities near Gaza.   Behind closed doors The Hamas delegation’s visit took place at the invitation of some Shiite armed groups loyal to the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’—including Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba and Kata’ib Hezbollah. The Hamas members met with the former secretary-general of Kata’ib Hezbollah, Abdulaziz (Abu Fadak) Al-Muhammadawi, who currently serves as chief of staff of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). The visiting Palestinians additionally met with the head of Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, Qais Al-Khazali. Of note, Khazali on Oct. 10 spoke with Haniyeh, expressing his “utmost readiness for any effort to liberate Al-Quds [Jerusalem] and support the Palestinian people.” Speaking on condition of anonymity, one source with knowledge of the meetings in Baghdad told Amwaj.media that the Hamas delegation briefed its Iraqi hosts on developments in the Gaza Strip—including the ongoing military operations. The source elaborated that the Iraqis were requested to increase their diplomatic intervention in relation to the Gaza crisis. The Hamas delegation is said to also have urged its counterparts to lobby the Iraqi government to liaise with the Lebanese government about paving the way for Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement to increase its military support for the Palestinian cause. Amwaj.media could not independently verify the latter claim. However, senior Hamas official Khaled Meshaal on Oct. 16 notably charged that “Hezbollah has preoccupied [Israeli forces] in southern Lebanon; we are thankful for that, and it is good…however, in my estimation, this battle requires more [to be done].” Insisting that his name be withheld given the sensitivity of the meetings, the source told Amwaj.media that the Iraqi side did not confirm that it would act upon the Palestinian requests, or what the next moves may be. However, the Iraqis are said to have pledged to relay the Hamas delegation’s message to the Iraqi government. Against this backdrop, the Hamas delegation notably did not hold any public meeting with officials from the administration of Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani (2022-). However, the same source asserted to Amwaj.media that Hamdan did in fact meet with some of Sudani’s advisors, without naming any of the individuals. While Baghdad appears to have given the green light for the visit, the claimed meeting with the government advisors is alleged to have been held in secrecy. If true, the latter appears geared to avoid any friction with Washington by portraying Iraq as neutral and not having ties with Hamas—even as Sudani has repeatedly expressed support for the Palestinians and their “right to resist Zionist injustice and terrorism” in the weeks after the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel.   Iraq-Hamas relations The main element that binds Iraqi Shiite armed groups and Hamas is their shared affiliation with the ‘Axis of Resistance’, including Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. Speaking to Amwaj.media, Iraqi political science professor Mohammad Al-Azzi explained that inviting Hamas to visit Iraq is perceived to be a part of efforts by Iraqi groups to show their supporters that they support the Palestinian cause. Azzi also explained that the Palestinian movement’s acceptance of the invitation is viewed as geared to open new fronts to weaken US forces in the region, and thus Israel. Amid the Hamas delegation’s visit, one key question that surfaced is why there was no meeting with representatives of the Sadrist Movement. Like its Shiite rivals such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Peace Brigades affiliated with the Sadrists are also capable of striking US forces in Iraq. In this vein, Sadrist leader Muqtada Al-Sadr in a statement posted on Twitter/X on the day of the Hamas delegation’s arrival called for the US embassy in Baghdad to be shut down over its “support for the Zionist entity.” Addressing the speculations surrounding the absence of a meeting between Hamdan and any Sadrists, Azzi told Amwaj.media that “the Hamas delegation was fearful of Iran’s reaction,” describing Sadr as an Iraqi figure “who opposes Tehran’s policies in Iraq and the region.” The professor further noted that Sadr’s Oct. 27 statement “may well be considered as an indirect comeback…on the Iraqi political stage.” Of note, after failing to form a “national majority” government together with Kurdish and Sunni Arab parties following the Oct. 2021 parliamentary elections, Sadr announced an “exit” from Iraqi politics last year. In the view of Azzi, the Shiite armed groups’ decision to invite Hamas and Sadr’s statement both stem from a common realization of the strong popular support in Iraq for the surprise attack on Israel. Against this backdrop, Shiite political actors are trying to invest in the Palestinian cause to “garner popular support,” especially ahead of the upcoming Iraqi provincial elections, the political science professor argued.   The visit by Hamas and threats to the government Speaking on condition of anonymity as he was unauthorized to publicly comment on the matter, one source affiliated with Sudani’s media office told Amwaj.media that the invitation for Hamas to visit Baghdad is seen as an attempt to embarrass the Iraqi government. Characterizing the invitation as having little to do with the Palestinian cause, the source claimed that the visit was essentially payback for Sudani and some of his allies in the Iran-backed Shiite Coordination Framework having “rejected” the “demands to acquire sensitive security positions ” by some Shiite armed groups.   A separate informed source emphasized to Amwaj.media that there are rifts within the PMU’s leadership. Armed groups loyal to the ‘Axis of Resistance’ are locked in a dispute with some elements of the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework—a constellation of Shiite parties which enabled Sudani’s rise to the premiership last year. These dynamics are indicated in PMU Chief of Staff Muhammadawi’s Nov. 2 declaration of a “high readiness to defend the sovereignty of the country and its national borders” in anticipation of “potential emergencies.” This appeared geared to highlight a readiness for possible American attacks following the recent string of drone and rocket strikes on US forces claimed by a new “resistance” entity. Yet, while the alert applies to Muhammadawi’s employer “and other security units,” Prime Minister Sudani is the commander-in-chief of all of Iraq’s armed forces—including the PMU. On the other hand, alleged documents attributed to the Iraqi defense ministry that have been circulating on social media speak of the need to redistribute and secure arms depots, redistribute aircraft among bases, secure means of transportation for senior officials as well as communications equipment, and activate efforts by the intelligence services to deter any possible threats. These alleged instructions, if true, indicate that the Iraqi government may be preparing for a confrontation.   Looking ahead Observers are wary of a possible deterioration in the security situation in Iraq, including a potential confrontation between Shiite armed groups and the government.  Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior source affiliated with the Shiite Coordination Framework told Amwaj.media that armed elements will continue to target US assets inside Iraq or along the border with Syria to embarrass the Sudani government and drag it into war. Baghdad has strongly rejected the attacks and urged calm and dialogue. Iraqi security researcher Ali Abd Al-Ilah told Amwaj.media that a deterioration of security conditions is imminent because of the dispute between the Iraqi government and some Shiite armed groups. However, he also said that the US is unlikely to launch a large-scale response to the attacks on its forces in recent weeks, saying that “the possible US responses to those attacks may include targeting PMU convoys or senior figures to prompt the armed groups to limit their operations against American assets in the region.” According to Abd Al-Ilah, Washington has an interest in limiting its response because it “realizes that triggering chaos in the current period may pave the way for a new crisis that the US does not need.” For now, the situation in Iraq remains overall calm—albeit potentially before a storm. The country may be on a path to being dragged into a new war in parallel with, or in relation to, the war between Hamas and Israel. The prospect of a domestic confrontation is also real unless there are stronger efforts to forge de-escalation and dialogue.

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Kurdistan oil smuggled to Turkey and Iran

Has Iraq violated the OPEC Plus agreement? Nabil Marsumi - Economist Iraq has reiterated its commitment to the OPEC Plus agreement and its production quota of 4.22 million barrels per day. Iraq's oil exports rose to 3.533 million barrels per day in October, the highest level this year, due to lower domestic consumption. However, a recent report showed that Iraq's oil production increased by 180,000 barrels per day, above the level set by OPEC Plus. Iraq's oil production rose to 4.4 million barrels per day in October, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. This increase is largely due to weak monitoring of oil investment in Kurdistan, which is partly used domestically and partly smuggled by tankers to Turkey and Iran.

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Will Iraq agree to new Turkmen-majority governorate?

For years, members of Iraq’s Turkmen community have demanded that Tal Afar be elevated from its current status as a district in Nineveh to that of a full governorate. These calls have intensified as the Iraqi government is considering agreeing to Halabja in Iraqi Kurdistan becoming the country’s 19th governorate. In response, Turkmen MPs earlier this year began collecting signatures to add a draft legislation about Tal Afar’s status to the parliamentary agenda. On Apr. 2, Badr Organization MP Gharib Turkmani announced that the effort had succeeded and that the matter would be discussed in future sessions. Months later, there is no movement on the issue. Meanwhile, objections from some Arab and Turkmen political parties over the lack of similar projects for other regions, including Tal Afar, have halted the establishment of a new Kurdish governorate. Tal Afar is the largest district in Iraq’s northern Nineveh Governorate, bordering the districts of Hatra, Mosul, and Sinjar along with Duhok Governorate in Iraqi Kurdistan. It has an estimated population of 511,000 residents, according to the National Center for Statistics in the Ministry of Planning. Its main population center is home to some 215,000 people, evenly divided between Sunni and Shiite Turkmens. Some 295,000 people reside in Tal Afar’s outlying districts, including Sunni Turkmens in Al-Ayadiyah, Sunni Arabs in Rabia, and a combination of Sunni Arabs and Kurds in Zummar. The latter is a part of the so-called disputed areas and claimed by both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Beyond ethnic tensions, it should be noted that the area around Tal Afar has also been the scene of intense sectarian conflict since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. It was occupied by the Islamic State group (IS) in 2014, before being liberated in 2017. Many of its former residents remain displaced and have not returned home, including a significant number of Sunnis who fled to Turkey and decided to settle there.   What a new governorate means Elevating Tal Afar’s status to a full governorate would be a major step for the Iraqi Turkmen community because it would be the first time that they would constitute the numerical majority in a governorate. Numbering 2-3M, the Turkmen community is the third-largest ethnic group in Iraq, after Arabs and Kurds, and is split evenly between Shiites and Sunnis. At present, Turkmen political power is splintered across several governorates, including Kirkuk, Salah Al-Din, and Nineveh. Endowed with new administrative powers, the proposed governorate would replace Kirkuk as the center of the Turkmen political world. Turkmeneli Party chairperson Riyaz Sarkahya told Amwaj.media that “the project of turning Tal Afar into a governorate is a strategic goal for most Turkmen political forces.” If realized, the new governorate would strengthen the community’s political position in a part of Iraq where it has generally been marginalized by Nineveh Governorate’s overall Sunni Arab majority. Moreover, such a move would represent an opportunity to increase funding to rebuild the area following the war against IS, including Tal Afar city which was 70% destroyed during the conflict. Turkmen nationalists also want to leverage the area’s location on the border with Turkey to increase trade by embarking on new infrastructure projects. For example, the proposed “Development Road” and Dry Canal project, which are geared to connect southern Iraq with Turkey, traverse the area. But not all observers see the proposed new governorate as the panacea offered up by its supporters. Jaafar Talafari, a Turkmen writer and lawyer, downplayed the significance of Tal Afar enjoying governorate status. He argued that residents are more concerned with practical issues like jobs and good public services. “For the citizens of Tal Afar, the project to turn the city into a governorate is a matter of administration and service,” Talafari told Amwaj.media, “It is not a political issue. As a city, we have all the necessary components to become a governorate, [but] we want to have service departments that can meet the growing needs of citizens.”   Changes for Sunni Arabs The Sunni Arab community is concerned about Tal Afar gaining governorate status for economic and political reasons. First, Sunni parties in Nineveh would lose votes from Sunni Turkmens who would no longer be a part of the constituency. Second, Sunni Arabs worry that the new governorate will be controlled by Shiite forces, which could contribute to what they see as problematic demographic change in northern Iraq. Finally, it would cut off direct access from Mosul to Turkey. Ammar Kahya, a Turkmen politician from Kirkuk, downplayed these considerations by pointing out that the majority of Tal Afar’s population is Sunni, and especially outlying districts. He told Amwaj.media, “The fears of the Arabs stem from the possibility that their political role will decline as a result of the separation of Tal Afar from Mosul.” He also noted that the Sunni population would increase if more Turkmens who were displaced by IS would return home. A more remote concern for Sunni Arabs is that separating Tal Afar from Nineveh will stall efforts to establish a new Sunni region under Iraq’s constitution, similar to neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan. Supporters of the proposal for a semi-autonomous Sunni region argue that once such an entity is set up, Tal Afar can be made a governorate within such a structure.   Competition between Iran and Turkey Last but certainly not least, geopolitical concerns are also a factor in the debate on whether Tal Afar should become a full governorate. Iran maintains close ties with Iraq's Shiite population as a way to exert influence over its neighbor, including by supporting political parties and armed groups. This reach has extended to Tal Afar, which has a significant Shiite population. Iranian activity in the area has increased in recent years as a part of the fight against IS. Many Turkmen forces within the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) have allied with Tehran and used Tal Afar’s strategic location on the Syrian border to support Iran’s cross-border activities. Firas Elias, a professor at Mosul University who specializes in Iraqi and Iranian affairs, told Amwaj.media that “the attempt to establish a Tal Afar Governorate is a political issue with regional implications.” In his view, “Shiite forces” are pursuing the project because they want to “strengthen their influence in the Iraqi, Turkish, and Syrian tri-border region.” Turkey would likely challenge any Iranian bid for dominance of a new governorate. Ankara has strong historical and cultural ties with the Turkmen and Sunni communities in Tal Afar. Leveraging the city's location on a major international transportation route would be an economic boon for Turkey. Competition between the two regional powers, however, could undermine efforts to economically develop the area. While the Turkmen community sees the elevation of Tal Afar to Iraq’s 20th governorate as an important step in building its power within Iraq, the proposal will face opposition from a number of constituencies. Sunni Arabs worry that it will empower local Shiites, while Baghdad will be keen to avoid further geopolitical competition between Iran and Turkey within its borders. As a result, it remains unclear whether the proposal will advance—at least any time soon.  

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October exports hit 8-month high

The northern export pipeline was offline for a seventh straight month, but Iraq has now compensated for about half the lost volumes with increased oil sales via southern outlets. Iraq exported 3.534 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in October, the highest nationwide monthly average since March, and up from 3.438 million bpd in September, according to preliminary Oil Ministry data.  The federal government has now increased its oil exports by over 200,000 bpd since the March shutdown of the northern export pipeline to Turkey, which ended the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) ability to sell oil independently on the international market. Iraq has made up for about half of the lost KRG volumes with increased production from southern fields and exports through Basra Gulf outlets, which are now operating near their maximum sustainable capacity. Southern export volumes have not been this high since September 2019.

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Iraq recovers $70 million smuggled into Switzerland

The head of the Federal Commission of Integrity (COI), Haider Hanoun, announced on Sunday the recovery of $96 million, the majority of which was from Switzerland. Hanoun, during a conference addressing the COI’s achievements, indicated that more than $70 million were recovered from a bank in Switzerland and $26 million were hidden in the Al-Rashid Bank, according to the Iraqi News Agency (INA). The head of the COI revealed that the amount in Switzerland was smuggled by the director of relations in the intelligence service in the previous regime. The Iraqi official also explained that the amount hidden in the Al-Rashid Bank belongs to a tour agency affiliated with the former intelligence service. Iraq’s COI disclosed last October details about the theft of more than 3.7 trillion Iraqi dinars (2.53 billion USD) from the General Commission for Taxes. The Iraqi judiciary issued arrest warrants for senior officials in the Ministry of Finance regarding this major breach and terrible abuse of public funds, the COI mentioned in October. INA reported in October that an internal investigation carried out by the Ministry of Finance found the money had been withdrawn from the account of the General Commission for Taxes at a state-owned bank. At that time, Al-Sudani vowed to tackle endemic corruption in the country. “We will not allow Iraqis’ money to be robbed,” he said via Twitter. The Rafidain Bank issued a statement in October confirming it has nothing to do with any manipulation or theft and is only responsible for cashing the checks issued by the General Commission for Taxes. The vast sum of cash, equivalent to nearly 3.7 trillion Iraqi dinars, was stolen by five companies from the General Commission of Taxes account at Baghdad’s Al-Rafidain Bank between September 2021 and August 2022 through the cashing in of 247 checks issued by the tax directorate, according to Rudaw News.

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September oil production steady

With the northern pipeline still offline, Iraq is compensating with robust southern exports and expanding sales into Kurdistan's local market. Iraq’s nationwide crude oil production maintained some upward momentum in September, inching up to 4.73 million barrels per day (bpd) from 4.71 million bpd in August, according to an Iraq Oil Report calculation based on field-by-field data.  Fields controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) raised their combined output by about 50,000 bpd as producers found more buyers in the domestic market. Those gains were partially offset by falling production from fields under federal control, which dipped to 4.48 million bpd in September from 4.51 million bpd in August, mainly because of a slight decline in output from federally controlled fields in Kirkuk.  

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Iraq's oil revenues in September surpass $9.4 billion

The Ministry of Oil announced on Sunday that Iraq’s total oil revenues for last September amounted to $9.494 billion, with exports reaching 103 million and 143 thousand barrels at an average price of $92.05 per barrel.  “The Ministry of Oil announces the total exports and revenues achieved for the month of September, according to preliminary statistics issued by the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company (SOMO). The total quantity of crude oil exports reached 103,143,199 barrels, generating revenues of $9.494 billion. The statistics also revealed that the total quantities exported from the oilfields in central and southern Iraq for September amounted to 102,220,441 barrels, while exports to Jordan reached 449,423 barrels, and exports from Qayyara amounted to 473,335 barrels. The average daily export rate was 3,438,000 barrels per day, with an average price per barrel of $92.05. It’s worth noting that the ministry, in its commitment to transparency and informing the public about export operations and revenues, has adopted this monthly reporting process.”

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Iraq: Supreme Court halts opening of KDP headquarters in Kirkuk

The Federal Supreme Court of Iraq has ordered a halt to the opening of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's headquarters in Kirkuk, following deadly clashes that led to four killed and 15 injured. The Federal Supreme Court of Iraq decided, on Sunday, to suspend the procedures for the handover of the Joint Operations Command headquarters in the northern province of Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK), one day after clashes erupted across the governorate claiming the lives of 4 people and injuring about 15 others. The Federal Supreme Court held its deliberative hearing to consider the request for a petition for the handing over of the Joint Operations Headquarters in Kirkuk on the basis of the case submitted to it. The Kirkuk administration, on its part, called on those affected by the events to file their complaints at the Rahimah police station to ensure their compensation. In an official statement, the Kirkuk administration called on "all those affected in the unfortunate and painful events that took place in Kirkuk on Saturday to submit their complaints to the Rahimah police station for the purpose of working as soon as possible to complete their applications and work to ensure that compensation is obtained for those affected by the Prime Minister." Today, the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, made two telephone calls to assess the situation in Kirkuk Governorate and discussed matters with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mohammad al-Halbousi, and the President of the Kurdistan National Union, Pavel Talabani. It is also important to note that the authorities of the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, on Sunday, lifted the curfew they had imposed earlier on Saturday and opened all routes, allowing the free movement of vehicles. Kirkuk events unfolding A spokesperson for the Kirkuk Police Command, Amer Shawani, reported on Sunday that the clashes that broke out in the northern Iraqi province on Saturday led to 4 deaths and 15 injuries, adding that "the deaths and injuries were caused by live gunfire, and investigations are ongoing to determine who was responsible." Previously, on Saturday, a curfew was instated in the evening after protests -- between Kurdish residents, on one side, and Turkmen and Arabs, on the other, descended into violence. Earlier that day, police had been deployed to act as a buffer and keep apart the rival groups. Tensions have been brewing for nearly a week in Kirkuk, which has historically been disputed between the federal government in Baghdad and the authorities in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. It is worth noting that Arab and Turkmen demonstrators staged a sit-in near the headquarters of the Iraqi security forces in Kirkuk province last Monday, after reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had ordered them to hand over the site to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Kurdish protesters tried to reach the headquarters on Saturday, an AFP correspondent said. In 2014, the KDP and the peshmerga, the security forces of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, took control of Kirkuk, an oil-producing region of northern Iraq. However, federal troops expelled them in the autumn of 2017 following a referendum.

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Clashes in Iraq's Kirkuk kill three protesters; more than a dozen injured

Reuters Three protesters were shot dead and 14 were wounded on Saturday during clashes between ethnic groups in the northern Iraqi oil city of Kirkuk that broke out after days of tensions, security forces and police said. The dispute centres on a building in Kirkuk that was once the headquarters for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) but which the Iraqi army has used a base since 2017. The central government plans to return to the building to the KDP in a show of goodwill but Arab and Turkmen opponents set up a camp outside the building last week in protest. Advertisement · Scroll to continue

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