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News / Iraq

Shiite rivalries could break Iraq’s deceptive calm in 2023

 Brookings, Draw Media Since the appointment of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in October 2022, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shiite militia groups that is accorded a formal status as an auxiliary branch of the Iraqi security forces, is making a comeback. Despite many challenges and serious setbacks since 2018, the PMF has shown a marked ability to bounce back from weakened leadership and internal fractures, a significant electoral defeat, and the loss of political capital with large segments of the Iraqi public. It has survived pressures resulting from the January 2020 U.S. assassinations of its former commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and his Iranian sponsor, Qassem Soleimani, the former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, and from measures undertaken by the former prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Not only has the PMF proved resilient, but it also retains political and military advantages that are likely to make it a force to be reckoned with for decades to come. et the PMF also faces challenges, and its malign activities, which include human rights abuses, may yet be curtailed, especially if the West and its regional allies can work with moderate actors in Iraq or those that fear the organization’s monopolization of power. The most significant of the PMF’s difficulties comes in the form of Iraq’s intra-Shiite political rivalries. Both the PMF’s power and vulnerabilities were manifest last August when Iraq was pushed to the brink of civil war following political tensions and violent confrontations between the PMF and its political allies, known as the Shiite Coordination Framework, and their rival, Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr heads Iraq’s most powerful sociopolitical movement, the Sadrist movement, and one of the country’s most powerful militia groups, Saraya al-Salam. Although his withdrawal from politics is likely temporary, Sadr will remain a significant challenge for the PMF in future religious leadership succession contests, economic turf battles, and day-to-day politicking. This intra-Shiite contestation as well as external pressures will not only threaten the PMF but can also reignite more violence, even another civil war.   THE RISE AND WEAKENING OF THE PMF   Since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, Shiite militia groups have enjoyed dramatic success in expanding their influence, augmenting their combat capabilities, and transitioning from rag-tag militia groups to powerful political players with considerable control over the Iraqi state. Some, like the Badr Brigade, established in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, were already firmly entrenched political actors with a loyal support base. Others, like Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah, designated as terrorist groups by the United States, drew on their battlefield successes against the Islamic State (ISIS) between 2014 and 2018 to evolve into major political players. Iraq’s Shiite militia network is underpinned by an array of informal sociopolitical, cultural, and security structures. Some emerged in the post-invasion tumult, others developed during the years of Baathist rule. The 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War forged friendships, kinships, and revolutionary camaraderie among the main factions and their leaders. The network is also undergirded by Iran. As head of the PMF and Kataib Hezbollah and Soleimani’s right-hand man, Muhandis had played a critical role in enhancing Iran’s influence over the Iraqi political system. As a result, Iran had been able to outsource some of its local security requirements to Muhandis in recent years, just as it had done with Badr Brigade leader Hadi al-Amiri during the 1990s and after the U.S. invasion in 2003. In Iraq’s 2018 parliamentary elections, the political parties linked to the PMF came in second. That impressive outcome solidified the PMF’s status as a formidable political actor. But the January 2020 assassinations of Muhandis and Soleimani widened internal fractures. The PMF’s new leadership has lacked their authority and strategic acumen. Instead, key PMF groups such as the Badr Brigade and Asaib Ahl al-Haq have pivoted toward Nouri al-Maliki of the Islamic Dawa Party, whose tenure as prime minister (2006-14) hastened the PMF’s ascension. Moreover, in March 2020, several PMF factions aligned with Iraq’s Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani withdrew from the PMF and placed themselves directly under the authority of the Iraqi Armed Forces. These militia groups had previously resisted Iran’s influence but operated within the ambit of the PMF during the war against ISIS. This split significantly weakened the PMF, which had drawn significant religious legitimacy and political influence under the cover of Iraqi nationalism and patriotism from al-Sistani’s blessing in 2014. However, the PMF’s legitimacy had already been undermined by its actions in 2018, when its Iran-backed factions systematically repressed civilians during the Tishreen protests, which challenged Iraq’s ruling elite and its misgovernance as well as Iran’s influence in the country. This cumulative weakening, alongside Sadr’s electoral acumen and superiority, was displayed in Iraq’s 2021 parliamentary elections: the PMF won a meager 17 seats, down from the 47 it won in 2018. The organization’s defeat contrasted with the success of its foremost rivals, the Sadrists, who won 73 seats (an increase from the 54 they won in 2018).   THE PMF’S COMEBACK   In the subsequent months, Sadr attempted to form a coalition majority in the Iraqi parliament at the expense of the PMF and the Shiite Coordination Framework, whose poor electoral performance presented him with an opportunity to exclude them from the government. However, Sadr’s decision departed from the power-sharing consensus that had underscored relations between Iraq’s most powerful parties and its fiercest rivals. This intensified the intra-Shiite rivalries, which finally exploded in the August 2022 violence that claimed casualties on both sides. Consequently, Sadr decided to give up his hopes of forming a majority and (perhaps temporarily) withdrew from Iraq’s political fray. The miscalculation paved the way for Mohamed Shia al-Sudani, a Maliki proxy and Dawa stalwart, to be appointed prime minister in October. This political outcome has been a boon for the PMF. The organization has further entrenched itself in the Iraqi state, widening its economic capabilities, diversifying its revenue streams, and expanding its patronage network. In November 2022, Sudani approved the creation of a PMF trading company called Al-Muhandis (after the slain PMF commander of the same name), a state-sanctioned body with an operating budget of at least $67 million.   But challenges also lie ahead for the PMF.   Despite his withdrawal from Iraqi politics, Sadr is not going anywhere. As the heir to the political and religious leadership of his father, Mohammed Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, who was controversially appointed as a marja’ (source of emulation) in the 1990s, Sadr the younger still sees himself as the rightful leader of Iraq’s political and religious Shiite community. Sadr’s limited religious credentials do not give him enough religious credibility to succeed Sistani, but his following of 2 million to 3 million Iraqi Shiites gives him a sufficient sociopolitical basis on which to contest the post-Sistani political order in Iraq. This coming religious succession struggle will escalate the rivalries between Sadr and the PMF and its political allies such as the Islamic Dawa Party. These political intra-Shiite contests could turn increasingly violent. The August 2022 violence may unfortunately preview what’s ahead for Iraq. The clashes caused at least 23 deaths and many more injuries as the country teetered on the edge of another civil war. Crucial mediation by the Iraqi clerical establishment in Najaf and by Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese Shiite cleric who heads Hezbollah, pulled Iraq back from the abyss. But tensions between Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Sadr remain very high, particularly in oil-rich Basra. The city’s many resources provide a vital economic base for both organizations, and it constitutes a vital strategic hub for their illicit commercial operations. Clashes over its resources may become deadly again. Apart from intra-Shiite political rivalries, Iraq is also beset by wider regional enmities that could violently play out on its territory. They include tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the latter grapples with its ongoing uprising. Since the unrest unfolded, Iran has launched attacks on alleged Iranian opposition group bases in Iraqi Kurdistan and has struck targets in the north and south as part of its shadow war with Israel and the United States. If tensions escalate further, Iraq could be caught in a regional conflagration, which Sadr and the PMF may exploit. Domestically, Iraqis’ socioeconomic grievances remain vast, and Sudani will struggle to address them. Any revived Tishreen protests could again be weaponized by Sadr and the PMF and retrigger clashes between them. Thus, the calm since Sudani’s appointment is likely deceptive. If Iraq is again gripped by violence, the PMF is likely to come out on top. Moreover, the fact that the PMF is so deeply embedded within the Iraqi state makes it difficult to manage and leaves Western conventional state-building practices ill-suited to addressing its multifaceted challenge. The West and its allies must instead bank on empowering Iraqi political actors who want to address the PMF’s human rights abuses and its efforts to monopolize power with the guidance and support of Iran. To collectively push back against the PMF, they must first address their own internal divisions over Iraq’s future and reconcile their differences over how to share power and manage the country’s wealth.

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Iraqi oil exports, prices and revenues between (2021 – 2022)

Draw Media • Iraq sold 1 billion 102 million 188 thousand 981 barrels of oil in 2021, an average of 3 million 19 thousand 520 barrels per day. However, in 2022, sales will increase by about 10 percent to 1 billion 208 million 531 thousand 119 barrels per day, an average of 3 million 311 thousand 416 barrels per day. • In 2021, a barrel of Iraqi oil sold for $6. However, in 2022, Iraqi oil sold for about 40 percent more and the average price of oil was $95.53 per barrel. • Iraq's total oil revenue in 2021 was (75 billion 650 million 606 thousand dollars). However, in the following year, oil revenues increased by 52.6 percent to $115 billion, 466 million 245 thousand. • Of the total oil sold by SOMO in 2021, 36 million 774 thousand 286 barrels, or 3.45%, were exported from Kirkuk oil fields. However, in 2022, Kirkuk's share of total oil exports dropped to 2.23% of Iraq's total oil exports which was only 27 million 43 thousand 971 barrels.   Iraqi oil sales between 2021 and 2022 Iraq earned a huge revenue from oil exports in 2022, benefiting from rising oil prices due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as increasing the amount of crude oil exported to foreign markets. Iraq has succeeded in increasing its oil exports to 1 billion 208 million 531 thousand 119 billion barrels in 2022, which is 3 million 311 thousand 416 million barrels per day. while in (2021) Iraq sold 1 billion 102 million 188 thousand 981 barrels of oil at an average of 3 million 19 thousand 520 barrels per day, an increase of about 10 percent in 2022.      

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Iraq to increase oil and gas production with multiple exploration deals

Iraq signed several deals with foreign companies aimed at boosting the OPEC member’s oil and natural gas production in the coming years. The government expects oil output to increase by 250,000 bpd once the blocks covered by the agreements start producing, Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on local television on Tuesday. He didn’t give a timeframe. Iraq is OPEC’s biggest producer after Saudi Arabia, pumping about 4.5 MMbpd. Still, some foreign companies have soured on the country due to political instability and stringent bureaucracy. Crescent Petroleum is one of the firms involved in Tuesday’s signings. Based in Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, it is set to develop three oil and gas blocks. The first two of those — both in Diyala province in the east — will be able to extract between 150 million and 250 million cubic feet a day of gas, according to Crescent’s executive director for exploration and production, Abdulla Al-Qadi. “The initial plan will start with a fast-track gas output from Khashim Al Ahmr-Injana” in Diyala, he said in an interview in Baghdad. “We expect within 18 months from contract signing to start first gas production.” Crescent will also develop Gilabat-Qumar in Diyala and the Khider Al-Mai block in Basra province in the south. Each agreement spans 20 years. The company already operates in Kurdistan in the north of Iraq, pumping about 500 million cubic feet per day of gas. It hopes to boost output by 50% by next year, Al-Qadi said. Iraq also signed deals with two Chinese companies, including Geo-Jade Petroleum Corp., the minister said.  

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Iraq PM risks new crisis as tensions with Kurds resurface

By Amina Ismail and Ahmed Rasheed Summary KDP threatens to stop supporting Sudani's government Sudani's agenda could be hampered if KDP withdraws support Baghdad-Erbil talks continue, Sudani trying to find solution After more than a year of political deadlock, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani could face a debilitating new crisis with Kurdish leaders that risks undermining his efforts to set policy and compile a badly needed state budget. Sudani, whose government was approved in October, has vowed to reform the economy, fight corruption, improve deteriorating public services and combat poverty and unemployment -- tall orders in a country that has been craving stability and cash since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Without support from the powerful Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) which helped him come to power and holds 31 seats in parliament, he would find it difficult to advance his agenda. The central government's strained relations with the Kurds -- often part of Iraq's political landscape since Saddam Hussein was toppled in the 2003 invasion -- could hamper Sudani's efforts after a long period of paralysis. The KDP may withdraw its support for the federal government if he fails to fulfil his promises to fix long-standing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad, according to two Iraqi lawmakers and a Kurdish government official. That could leave him struggling to pass bills in parliament and enact reforms. Before Sudani formed his government he struck a deal with the KDP, which dominates the administration in Erbil, capital of the semi-autonomous region in northern Iraq. The agreement included ending a long-running dispute over budget transfers to Erbil and oil revenue sharing between the national government and Kurdistan, according to three Kurdish officials. Under the Iraqi constitution, the Kurdish region is entitled to a portion of the national budget. But the arrangement collapsed in 2014 when the Kurds began selling crude independently from Kurdistan. In 2017, Iraqi forces retook disputed territories including the oil city of Kirkuk. Baghdad resumed some budget payments, but they have been sporadic. The KDP made it clear that they would stop supporting Sudani if he didn't keep his promises, according to one of the Kurdish officials. Sudani came to power after more than a year of political deadlock as infighting among Shi'ite and Kurdish groups prevented the formation of a government, hampering efforts to rebuild a country on its knees after decades of conflict. The paralysis left Iraq without a budget for 2022 holding up spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reform and depriving Kurdish authorities of revenues needed to pay international oil firms and the salaries of thousands of local workers. A KDP official said after the government was formed last year that the Kurds wanted to end the deadlock, which was why they supported Sudani's government, but that if the other side failed to deliver they would withdraw that support. "There are some political forces that are trying to break our will and we reject this and won't allow it," said Shawan Taha, a KDP spokesman. In January, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court ruled that orders from the Baghdad government to transfer money to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to pay salaries in 2021 and 2022 were illegal because they broke Iraq's budget law. Massoud Barzani, president of the ruling KDP, said the court has taken a "hostile position" against the region and "seems to have replaced the revolutionary court in the previous regime", referring to an infamous court of the Baathist regime known for issuing death sentences against regime opponents. A spokesman for the KRG, Jotiar Adil, said the "politically motivated" court was trying to spoil the deal between Erbil and Baghdad. A KRG delegation was in Baghdad on Monday to discuss the budget as well as hydrocarbon laws. A source with knowledge of the meetings said Erbil and Baghdad remained far apart on the hydrocarbon law. According to an adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Sudani has tasked the cabinet's legal team with finding a solution to allow salary transfers without breaching the court verdict. Other political actors in Sudani’s camp in Baghdad see escalation with the Kurds by using such court rulings as a necessary political tactic to put him in a stronger negotiating position, according to lawmakers. But the KRG's Adil was still hopeful that a compromise could be agreed on. He said the KRG delegation would be in Baghdad again on Sunday, and he denied that the KDP was threatening to withdraw its support for the government in Baghdad. "There are obstacles in reaching an agreement with Baghdad. But there is a serious and real intention to reach an agreement from the KRG, and we felt the seriousness as well from Sudani to solve those obstacles," he said.  

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Iraq signs 5th round contracts, previews potential 6th round

Iraq has finally inked deals first awarded in 2018, raising hopes for the Oil Ministry's efforts to prepare a sixth contract licensing round. Iraq's Oil Ministry signed six oil and gas contracts on Tuesday that had been awarded in its fifth licensing round in 2018, while also teasing another round of gas-focused deals that could soon be offered. "We congratulate you on the final signing of the contracts for the long-awaited fifth round," said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani at the Oil Ministry's signing ceremony, according a written excerpt of his remarks published by his office. Sudani noted that the deals had been "stalled for five years, costing Iraq millions of dollars and causing harmful environmental damage." Multiple senior Oil Ministry officials and one industry official said the contracts are final and binding. Their signings represent a major step forward for Iraq's plans to boost domestic energy production, diversify revenue streams, and reduce dependence on costly and unreliable gas imports from Iran.

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Iraq to enter global gas market

The Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, confirmed on Tuesday that Iraq is seeking to reach self-sufficiency in gas within three years, the state news agency (INA) reported. Al-Sudani, during a ceremony held to sign to final contracts of licenses related to oilfields, said that the reform in the oil sector is represented in the optimal investment of oil wealth, and Iraq’s entry into the global gas market is an option that we planned for and will be implemented, INA mentioned. Al-Sudani noted that it is not possible to continue burning the associated gas that wastes wealth and affects the environment. “One of the main reasons behind the electricity crisis is the lack of fuel,” Al-Sudani stated. “We spend 10 trillion dinars (nearly 6.85 billion USD) annually on gas imports. Iraq imports even oil derivatives, although it is an oil producer and exporter,” Al-Sudani clarified. “We will work to sign contracts for the establishment of refineries, and we will reach self-sufficiency in gas within three years to cover all our needs,” Al-Sudani illustrated. “We emphasize the need to benefit from the associated gas in all our foreign visits and meetings,” Al-Sudani said. “We are looking forward to seeing the Ministry of Oil benefiting from Iraq’s resources of natural gas and associated gas,” Al-Sudani added. The Iraqi Prime Minister also mentioned that Iraq is now in a transitional phase to shift from total dependence on oil revenues to diversify its sources of income.

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Talks in Washington to benefit from associated gas in Iraq

The advisor to the Prime Minister for Energy Affairs, Imad Al-Alaq, announced that meetings are held in Washington to benefit from the associated gas in Iraq, the Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported. Al-Alaq said that the meetings in Washington focused on enabling Iraq benefit from the associated gas and produce electric energy, INA mentioned. Al-Alaq added that the meetings also discussed accelerating the regional electrical interconnection with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, according to INA. Al-Alaq explained that the United States is serious about building long-term strategic relations to enable Iraq to take advantage of its natural resources. “Iraq burns more than 18 billion cubic meters of associated gas annually. The associated gas burned every year in Iraq is worth 6.5 billion USD,” Al-Alaq stated.   Al-Alaq also mentioned that burning the associated gas causes environmental pollution, contributes to the spread of diseases, and increases global warming. Al-Alaq added that Washington is serious about enabling Iraq to develop effective medium and long-term strategic solutions to invest these resources and support the electrical network.  

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TotalEnergies extends deadline to conclude $27bn Iraq deal

After negotiations nearly fell apart two weeks ago, the French firm gave until Feb. 15 to finalize a deal — a deadline now extended by one month. TotalEnergies has agreed to extend a deadline to finalize a $27 billion package of energy contracts with Iraq, creating more space for negotiations after the deal nearly fell apart earlier this month. The two sides have kept the deal alive through a long period of political limbo by issuing a sequence of two-month extensions, the latest of which was set to expire Feb. 15. That deadline has now been extended by one month, according to two Iraqi oil officials and one industry official familiar with the negotiations.

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Erbil, Baghdad Reach Agreement on Oil Sector Management: Sudani

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper stressed the growing need for the country to pass the long overdue hydrocarbons law, and noted that the budget bill will soon be debated in the parliament. "We are about to present the budget bill, and have reached an agreement with the Kurdistan Region on managing the oil sector, and also on budget shares," Prime Minister Sudani noted. We will work on passing a hydrocarbons law after the budget bill is passed into law. The passage of a hydrocarbons law will be the greatest achievement since the constitution was drafted in 2003. It's not only the Kurdistan Region waiting for the passage of a hydrocarbons law, rather, all oil-producing provinces are waiting for this law, because they all want to know their powers." The absence of a hydrocarbons law in the country has often led to tensions between Erbil and Baghdad over control of oil sales. Relations between the two have recently been improving, especially after Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's visit to Baghdad in January. The rapprochement was, however, upset afterwards by recent Iraqi Supreme Federal Court decision, which ruled Kurdistan Region's shares of the federal budget unconstitutional.  

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Iraq Revalues Currency Weeks After Replacing Central Bank’s Head

Draw Media, Bloomberg, Iraq revalued its currency just over two weeks after replacing the central bank governor as part of an effort to stabilize the foreign exchange market. The cabinet on Tuesday approved a decision to set the exchange rate at 1,300 dinars per US dollar, according to a tweet on Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s office account. No further details were provided.  The Iraq News Agency said the new rate will go into effect from Wednesday. The dinar’s official value was previously set at 1,460 but traded weaker in the parallel market. The central bank will continue its measures until the new exchange rate is stable and said it’s seeking to achieve its target in steadying the general level of prices to protect the buying power of the citizens, according to the Iraq News Agency. OPEC’s second-biggest producer has come under pressure from the US to limit the flow of money into neighboring Iran, with the New York Federal Reserve last November imposing tighter controls on dollar transactions by Iraqi commercial banks.  The measures contributed to dollar shortages in Iraq, stoked a slide in the dinar and fanned inflation, prompting the prime minister to replace central bank Governor Mustafa Ghalib Mukheef.   Iraq’s foreign minister along with the central bank’s acting governor, Ali Al-Allaq, and advisers are due to visit Washington to discuss issues including the newly applied standards for US dollar transfers, Al-Sudani said last month in an interview with the state-run Iraqiya channel.  The US dollar exchange rate fluctuation versus the Iraqi dinar will be discussed during the visit, the premier said. The economy of Iraq is entirely dependent on oil exports, and plagued by political instability, corruption and dilapidated infrastructure.  

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US efforts to stop Iraqi money laundering sparks huge cross-border dollar smuggling

Federal Reserve's new auditing measures are hurting the economy but not stopping washing of illicit funds, sources say The pressures imposed by the US Federal Reserve on the Central Bank of Iraq to limit corruption and illicit outflows of dollars have paralysed Iraqi markets and widely encouraged cross-border dollar smuggling.   By placing new restrictions on Iraq's dollar auction, which Baghdad uses to convert the US dollars it received for oil sales, the Fed has cast Iraq into one of the largest financial crises it has faced since 2003. Unable to convert its petrodollars into dinars with the ease it once did, the Iraqi government is struggling to pay its obligations, including the salaries of millions of public employees, pensions and social support. On Monday, the governor of the Central Bank, Mustafa Ghaleb, resigned "because of his inability to face the crisis", an advisor to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told Middle East Eye.  The Iraqi government has taken several urgent steps to confront the crisis. It has opened more official currency exchange offices, launched a scheme to encourage small-scale traders and investors to use the dollar auction, suspended taxes on certain commodities and introduced subsidies, among other measures. Yet the dollar auction's sales are still way behind average. Public data of the foreign currency auction, reviewed by MEE, showed that sales for January did not exceed $131m per day on average, compared to $227m in October. As a result, dollar exchange rates on the black market are on the rise. On Thursday, the exchange rate of the dollar on the Baghdad black market reached 1,740 dinars per dollar, compared to 1,480 in October. This fluctuation has had knock-on effects at wholesale markets and has been strongly reflected in the prices of consumer goods. Some foodstuffs, such as sugar and cooking oil, have doubled in price.  Sending dollars over land The Fed's new auditing measures, placing greater scrutiny on the source of foreign money being used to buy dollars at the dollar auction, were imposed in November. Iraqi officials, bankers and owners of exchange and financial brokerage companies told MEE the measures have led to merchants and capital owners being reluctant to participate in the auction to avoid revealing their identities, the purpose of the money transfers, the identity of the final beneficiary and other sensitive information. Instead, they have turned to the black market and other informal routes to obtain dollars, which has sparked a huge rise in smuggling dollars out of Iraq by land, and maintained high exchange rates. A member of the Iraqi Private Banks League told MEE that, previously, private banks handled every detail for major customers who wanted dinars exchanged at the dollar auction. "The major customers do not want to reveal any information related to the sources of their money or their identities for security or financial reasons, and some do not want to waste time in routine paper procedures," the banker said. "This mechanism is no longer available now, and so there is much reliance on the black market to secure dollars and transfer them through unofficial outlets," they added. "The process will not take more than 10 minutes, and you will find your money in dollars in a neighbouring country, as long as you are willing to pay the exchange rate difference." Two advisors to Sudani told MEE that intelligence indicates that dollar-smuggling operations have recently been growing by land through the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in Iraq's north, and from there to Turkey or Dubai. In response, the Iraqi government has erected several new checkpoints equipped with sonar devices along the road from Baghdad to Kurdistan. Meanwhile, security forces have launched a campaign to hunt down the currency exchangers and brokers who buy and sell dollars on the black market. Many of them have already been arrested over the past few days, security sources said. That has spooked the exchange offices, which receive a fixed daily share of the dollar auction. Most have almost completely stopped selling dollars unless to well-known clients, fearing arrest. Similarly, WhatsApp and Viber groups that were used to request dollars from private banks and brokers have been deleted out of concern that they could be hacked or infiltrated, security and financial sources told MEE.  Despite this, at least $70m is smuggled daily out of Iraq through the Kurdish region, bankers and Iraqi officials told MEE. One owner of an exchange company involved in dollar smuggling said his business has only grown: "Frankly, all this harassment by the security services has exacerbated the severity of the crisis and revived our work."  "The profits that we are now making in return for providing the required dollars to merchants and owners of capital, whether in Dubai or Turkey, have multiplied dozens of times over the past few weeks," they added. "We do not ask any questions and the trader or client does not want to answer any questions related to him or his money, so this is why they turn to us. All they have to do is make a phone call and send their Iraqi money to us sooner or later, and that's it." Replacing the auction Iraq's economy depends heavily on oil sales, which have been deposited with the US Federal Reserve since 2004. To extract its funds and turn it into dinars, the Central Bank of Iraq requests dollars from the Fed, which it then sells to private banks and a few other financial institutions, such as currency exchanges, through the daily dollar auction. However, Washington has grown tired of the dollar auction being used to wash money and feed dollars to places such as Syria and Iran, which are under fierce US sanctions. A recent scandal known as the "theft of the century", when $2.5bn was illicitly extracted from an Iraqi government bank account and washed through private banks, appeared to be the final straw, and prompted the Fed to bring in new checks on money transfers used in the auction. In response, all but a few of the 72 private banks have stopped using the auction.  To replace this source of dollars, people have begun relying on brokers and bankers who can obtain them through more illicit means. According to Central Bank of Iraq data reviewed by MEE, there are 1,094 licenced banking and financial brokerage companies. Of those, 249 have a bank rating of A, and 81 a B rating. These companies have the right to participate in the dollar auction, with the funds they secure ostensibly earmarked for imported goods and local demands. Their weekly dollar share is determined on the banking classification of each company.  A company rated 'A' can obtain $1,800,000 a week, while a company rated 'B' takes $750,000, bankers told MEE. Brokers now buy dollars from these exchange companies and transport them by land to Kurdistan. A group of influential local officials and politicians take these dollars out through the Ibrahim al-Khalil border crossing to Turkey, three owners of exchange and financial brokerage companies and Iraqi officials told MEE. The Turkish authorities charge $5 for every $10,000 taken across as customs fees, owners of exchange companies said. The smuggled money is deposited in private accounts in Turkish banks, and some find their way to private bank accounts in Dubai. "The customer agrees on the required amount in Baghdad and sends us the equivalent amount in Iraqi currency, so that he can get his money in dollars in Turkey or Dubai," the owner of an exchange company involved in the process told MEE. "All I need is to make a phone call to a person in Dubai or Turkey, so that he can deliver the money in cash to a person named by the customer or transfer it to the next country according to the customer's request." Smuggling dollars or washing dinars? Owners of exchange and financial brokerage companies told MEE that the cost of transferring money abroad has increased by one-and-a-half times over the past week, as the process "has become more difficult and more expensive". Sources said that the fees taken by brokers getting cash out of Iraq is no more than $15,000 per $1m. But according to three owners of exchange and financial brokerage companies and two bankers, it costs $184,000 to exchange $1m in a deal to take that money out of Iraq - far more than the rate domestically. In fact, before the Fed's auditing measures came in, some exchange companies would only charge $80 per $10,000 transferred abroad, and sometimes would offer the service for free to valued clients. With these kinds of new overheads, it suggests the people trying to get dollars out of Iraq are either neighbouring countries struggling with liquidity problems or people who need their money laundered. "You do not see the real players here. Most of those who run the dollar exchange companies are tools. They are no more than cards that are ready to be burned whenever it is needed," a senior Iraqi financial official told MEE. "The operation, in fact, is a combination of dinar laundering and dollar smuggling. Both operations serve each other and many local, regional and international players are involved." Corruption and criminal activities, such as oil and drug smuggling, leaves compromised cash swilling around Iraq. "The owners of this money are either shareholders of private banks, or they have established private banks, or they sponsor and protect private banks to undertake the laundering of this money," the official said. "A better way hasn't been found to launder this money than through the foreign currency auction." 'Everyone must share the pain' The annual reports of the Central Bank's Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Office for 2019, 2020 and 2021 showed that international and domestic financial transfers were among the "most used tools" for money laundering. In 2021, foreign remittances accounted for 81 percent of the suspicious transactions recorded by the Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Office, reports show. The true profits made in these dollar-smuggling operations are not those made by the brokers, officials and bankers told MEE. They said that a fee of 20 percent is agreed to take dollars out of Iraq, and the beneficiaries are these figures linked to private banks. Before the Fed's new auditing measures came in, most of the money was smuggled out through the foreign currency auction, the financial official said. Private banks, exchange companies and financial intermediation firms have been participating in the dollar auction in the name of shadowy clients for years, presenting fake invoices and importation documents, the official said. "The funny thing is that the two processes of dinar laundering and dollar smuggling are intertwined in Iraq, and whoever works in this process works in the other until they complement each other," he said, adding that efforts to clamp down on them will take years. "Everyone must share the pain for a while to contain this nightmare," he warned.  "The continuation of the situation as it is now meaning the collapse of the Iraqi economy soon, and the government's inability to secure monthly salaries and finance operational projects, so we have to find our way through this crisis."  

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TotalEnergies starts Iraq exit as negotiations falter

The death of the $27 billion deal would represent a multi-year setback in Iraq’s efforts to boost production of oil, gas, and electricity. TotalEnergies has begun to withdraw staff from Iraq after a rocky meeting between CEO Patrick Pouyanné and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Paris, foreshadowing what could be the end of a $27 billion mega-deal that promised to provide badly needed infrastructure for the country’s energy sector. In the meeting last week, Sudani and Oil Minister Hayyan Abdulghani reportedly surprised Pouyanné by reviving a demand that had torpedoed previous negotiations — that Iraq should take a 40 percent stake in the project rather than the 25 to 30 percent envisioned by the company. “The oil minister insisted on Iraq's share of 40 percent,” said an Iraqi official briefed on the talks. “The CEO had to withdraw from the meeting.” A second person familiar with Total’s operations in Iraq said the meeting lasted 10 minutes. Neither TotalEnergies nor Sudani’s office released a statement after the meeting. Five officials familiar with Total’s operations in Iraq said company staff who had been working to begin implementing the project in country were beginning to leave as of Tuesday. A TotalEnergies spokesperson could not be reached for comment in time for publication. "Total [staff] came to BOC to today to say goodbye to us," said an official at the state-run Basra Oil Company (BOC), which had been working with Total to prepare for the activation of the deal. "They were sad... the contract is beneficial for Iraq." If the deal falls apart, Iraq would lose an opportunity to build billions of dollars' worth of infrastructure with the potential to amplify revenues across the energy sector: water injection needed to boost production at the largest oil fields in Basra; a processing plant needed to capture valuable associated gas that is otherwise being wastefully flared; and solar power generation.  

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Explainer: What is behind Iraq's Central Bank shuffle and what is next?

The economic crisis in Iraq as a result of the ongoing rise in the value of the US dollar against the dinar resulted in the prime minister sacking the heads of the Central Bank of Iraq and the Trade Bank of Iraq.  Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani removed on Monday Central Bank of Iraq Gov. Mustafa Ghaleb Mukheef and head of the Trade Bank of Iraq Salem Chalabi. Sudani appointed Ali Mohsen al-Allaq as the head of the central bank and Bilal al-Hamdani as the head of the Trade Bank of Iraq. This comes at a critical time as the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Iraqi dinar reached 1,670, the highest price since 2004. The rise of the US dollar affects the Iraqi economy significantly as the majority of goods and products are imported from overseas, based on the value of the dollar. How did Iraq get here? The rise of the US dollar started a few weeks after the new government came to office last October. The previous government had kept the exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar between 1,145 and 1,147, after it raised the official exchange rate from 1,182 to 1,460 dinars in December 2020, to address the economic crisis that resulted from the coronavirus pandemic and a drop in the price of oil.  Sudani had set measures previously to control the price of the US dollar, including banning four Iraqi banks from participation in a currency auction due to their violation of the regulations, and setting a daily limit on the amount of dollars citizens could withdraw. However, none of these measures had a positive result as the price of the dollar kept rising significantly. The reason for the dollar price increase is due to several technical issues that the Sudani government has failed to address so far. First, the lack of sufficient transparency in the Iraqi banking system has led the Central Bank of Iraq to set restrictions for banks using the US dollar in order to comply with the US Federal Reserve regulations. This has limited the access to dollars in the country's banking system. Second, the banking system in Iraq has not been developed into a full electronic system that allows the central bank to monitor and track all the money movements in and outside the country. This allows individuals and companies to transfer US dollars illegally overseas, which raises the price of the dollar due to the increase in its demand. In order to stop this, the banking system needs to develop the process and adopt a full electronic system that complies with the global banking system. Third, the high level of corruption in Iraq, which has resulted in money laundering practices that require large amounts of money to appear to have come from a legitimate source, also created high demands for the US dollar to be withdrawn and used for purchasing properties inside and outside Iraq. In the recent corruption case known as “heist of the century,” about $3 billion was taken from the Iraqi tax commission’s account with the majority of the funds transferred to properties and other assets. The Iraqi government removed the ban from the main convict’s company last week, a short time after releasing Noor Zuhair Jassim. In an interview with Al-Taghier TV on Monday, US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski said that the United States will continue the mechanism that helps the Iraqi banking sector to comply with the international banking system, to restrict the use of the global banking system by criminals and malicious parties in order to curb money laundering. “These measures that we took began about two years ago and were gradually implemented by the banks and were agreed upon between the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Iraq,” Romanowski noted.   What are Sudani's options? By replacing the head of the Central Bank of Iraq and the head of the Trade Bank of Iraq, Sudani hopes to address these issues. Allaq, who also served as central bank governor from 2014 to 2020, is close to former Prime Minister and head of the State of Law Coalition Nouri al-Maliki. In an interview with Al Rasheed TV last Saturday, Maliki said the solution for the currency crisis is twofold: The dollar movement needs to be controlled and the easing of the mechanism and regulations of providing dollars to Iraqi banks needs to be negotiated with the United States. Leaders and members of parliament from the Coordination Framework, which is an umbrella bloc of Iraqi Shiite parties that nominated and supported Sudani for the premiership, have accused the United States of putting pressure on the government by using a fanatical mechanism that has led to the dinar plummeting against the dollar. Aqeel al-Fatlawi, Shiite lawmaker from the State of Law Coalition that is part of the Coordination Framework, was interviewed on Rashid TV in regard to the currency regulations. "Americans are using the rigid dollar transfer restrictions as a warning to Prime Minister Sudani to stay in line with the American interests. 'Working against us could lead to bringing down your government' is the American message," he said. Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Organization and Fatah Alliance that is also part of the Coordination Framework, had accused the United States of using the exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in order to starve the Iraqi people, calling for economic independence from the United States.  Romanowski, however, responded to such accusations in her recent interview. “These measures [financial measures about the dollar movement in Iraq] were not designed to be political, but instead they were designed, in particular, to prevent money laundering and corruption,” she said. It seems Sudani is caught between a rock and a hard place, as he is facing opposite demands from the United States on the one hand and his political allies on the other.  

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Iraq’s oil revenues in December exceed 7 billion USD

The Iraqi Ministry of Oil announced on Tuesday that oil export revenues for December exceeded seven billion USD, according to the Oil Ministry statement cited by the Iraqi news Agency (INA). According to final statistics issued by the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), the total exports of crude oil during December exceeded 103.28 million barrels with revenues exceeding 7.7 billion USD, the statement mentioned. The statement indicated that the total quantities of crude oil exported during December from oil fields in central and southern Iraq were more than 100.7 million barrels, while the quantities exported from oil fields in Kirkuk through the port of Ceyhan were more than 2.22 million barrels. The average price per barrel exceeded 74.63 USD, the statement elaborated. Iraqi oil exports have been loaded by 36 international companies from ports on the Arabian Gulf and through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the statement added. The Iraqi Ministry of Oil started to share information about its oil export operations and revenues out of its awareness and belief to let the information available for the Iraqi people. The Iraqi Ministry of Oil announced earlier that oil export revenues for November exceeded eight billion USD, with an average price exceeding 82.41 USD per barrel, while revenues of oil exports during October were more than nine billion USD.

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Iraq's currency in flux as foreign transfers come under scrutiny

Iraq's local currency has been on a two-month roller coaster ride following a tightening of procedures for international transfers, with some blaming Washington for the dinar's woes. While the official exchange rate has been fixed at 1,470 Iraqi dinars against the dollar, the currency was trading at up to 1,600 to the greenback on local markets from mid-November, before settling at about 1,570 dinars, according to state media. Though the depreciation does not seem particularly dramatic, especially compared to other countries in the region, it has sent panic through the Iraqi population, which fears a price surge on imported goods such as gas and wheat. "The fundamental reason" for this depreciation is "external constraints", said Muzhar Saleh, a financial adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. But other Iraqi officials have placed the blame squarely on the shoulders of one actor -- the United States.   Hadi al-Ameri, a key figure in the pro-Iran former paramilitary Hashed al-Shaabi, has accused the United States of using the dollar "as a weapon to starve nations". But Iraqi economic expert Ahmed Tabaqchali said that "contrary to current misconceptions, rumours and misinformation, there is no evidence of US pressure on Iraq". 'Shock' Since mid-November, Iraqi banks have had to comply with certain criteria of the SWIFT international transfer system in order to access their foreign reserves, estimated at $100 billion and held at the US Federal Reserve. "Taking part in the international cross-border fund transfers requires complying with global anti-money laundering provisions, counter terrorist financing provisions, and sanctions provisions -- such as those that apply to Iran or Russia," Tabaqchali said. "The new regulations require high levels of disclosure and transparency," he said, adding that this came as a "shock for many... of our banks, who were not used to this". According to Saleh, Iraqi banks must now register their dollar transfers "on an online platform that reviews transfer requests". "The US Federal Reserve examines the requests and if there are any suspicions, it stops the transfer," he said. Since the adoption of the new mechanism in November, the US Federal Reserve has blocked about 80 percent of transfer requests to Iraqi banks due to doubts over the final destination of these transfers, according to Saleh. Purchasing power plunges This has led to a shortage of dollars on the Iraqi market and in turn a depreciation in the dinar's value. The Iraqi central bank has described the currency fluctuation as a "temporary situation" and the authorities have taken measures seeking to stabilise the exchange rate. These have included facilitating dollar trade in the private sector through Iraqi banks and opening foreign exchange outlets at state-owned banks for those wishing to travel abroad. The cabinet has also decided to "oblige all state bodies to sell goods and services in Iraq in dinars at the central bank's exchange rate" of 1,470 to the dollar. Saleh argued that "these measures are important as they show that the state is there to protect the market and citizens." Inflation was at a relatively low 5.3 percent year-on-year in October 2022 when it was last registered. But fears remain over the declining purchasing power among Iraqis. Saad al-Tai, a retiree who helps his son run a small shop in Baghdad's Karrada district, is feeling the heat of the fluctuating exchange rate, describing it as "a real problem" for both traders and customers. "When the dollar was valued at 1,470, my pension was worth $336. Today, the exchange rate is 1,570 dinars and my pension is worth $314," he said.

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