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KRG revenue in 2024 was the highest in the past 11 years

In 2024, the Kurdistan Region received 10 trillion and 26 billion dinars from Baghdad, the highest in the past 11 years (2014-2024). The Kurdistan Region's revenue in 2024, was 16 trillion 966 billion dinars. That includes Baghdad's money, oil revenues, and 14 trillion and 613 billion dinars of domestic revenue. According to the official statement of the Ministry of Finance of the KRG in 2024, the amount of 10 trillion 26 billion 883 million dinars has reached the KRG Ministry of Finance from Baghdad  which was allocated for salaries. According to the investigations of Draw Media during the past 11 years from 2014 to 2024, the KRG has had the highest revenues in 2024. Money sent from Baghdad over 11 years 2014: 2 trillion and 280 billion dinars 2015: 2 trillion 476 billion dinars 2016: No money sent from Baghdad 2017: No money sent from Baghdad 2018: 3 trillion and 175 billion dinars 2019: 5 trillion 439 billion dinars 2020: 1 trillion 359 billion dinars 2021: 1 trillion and 200 billion dinars 2022: No money sent from Baghdad 2023: 4 trillion 298 billion dinars 2024: 10 trillion and 26 billion dinars  In total, 29 trillion and 53 billion dinars have come from Baghdad The Kurdistan Region has several other revenues, which in 2024 were as follows: - 10 trillion and 26 billion dinars came from Baghdad to the Kurdistan Region - Domestic revenue: (4 trillion, 347 billion dinars). - International Coalition Aid: (240 billion dinars). - Oil net revenue: (2 trillion and 74 billion dinars).  The total revenue of the Kurdistan Region in 2024 was 16 trillion and 966 billion dinars. Oil revenue alone was 14 trillion and 613 billion dinars.

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Kurdistan Oil Company: A path to resolving oil disputes

The ongoing disputes over oil resources and revenue sharing between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have long been a source of tension, hindering Iraqi national unity and its economic stability. Historical Background Oil has been a cornerstone of Iraq’s economy since its discovery in the early 20th century. The development of the oil sector has been closely tied to Iraq’s political trajectory, with periods of nationalization, international partnerships, and conflicts over resource control. Following the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, the country adopted a federal system that granted regions, including Kurdistan, significant autonomy. Under the 2005 Iraqi Constitution, the Kurdistan Region gained considerable authority over its natural resources. Article 112 and Article 115 of the constitution allow the KRG to manage all the oil fields discovered after the constitution’s ratification. However, disputes arose over the interpretation of these provisions, particularly regarding revenue-sharing mechanisms and the rights to sign contracts with international oil companies (IOCs). Ongoing Strains And Conflicts Baghdad insists on central oversight of all oil exports and revenues, arguing that oil is a national resource that should benefit all Iraqis. In contrast, the KRG maintains that its constitutional rights grant it autonomy over the extraction and export of oil within its territory. These disagreements have often led to budgetary disputes. For years, Baghdad has withheld budget allocations to the KRG, accusing it of failing to meet production-sharing commitments. Meanwhile, Erbil has accused Baghdad of undermining its economic stability by using budget allocations as a political tool. The situation reached a breaking point in 2022 when a ruling by Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court deemed the KRG’s oil and gas law unconstitutional. While the Iraqi federal government claims sovereign authority over all oil production and exports, the KRG has independently managed its oil sector, exporting crude via Turkiye’s Ceyhan port and bypassing Baghdad. The 2023 arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in favor of Iraq, which temporarily halted oil exports through Ceyhan, underscored the urgency of finding a sustainable resolution. These continuous tensions were addressed by Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani during his meetings with Iraqi officials in Baghdad this month. Barzani's visit to Baghdad aimed to resolve ongoing disputes over salaries, entitlements, and oil exportation—a process currently stalled due to high extraction costs for companies operating in Kurdistan. Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, parliamentary finance committee member Moeen Al-Kadhimi confirmed that the committee met with representatives from Iraq’s Ministry of Finance to discuss budget implementation for 2024. “The approved budget for 2024 is 211 trillion Iraqi dinars, but actual spending has been 156 trillion dinars so far, with revenues totaling only 137 trillion dinars. The deficit has been covered through loans,” Al-Kadhimi explained. He stressed the importance of a realistic 2025 budget, suggesting it should not exceed 150 trillion dinars. Once the revised budget law is approved by parliament, adjustments will account for Kurdistan's oil extraction and transportation costs, which range from $6 to $16 per barrel. In parallel, the parliamentary oil and gas committee has been working on amendments to the budget law that pertain to Kurdistan's oil sector. Committee member Basem Al-Gharibawi emphasized that any changes must comply with Iraqi law and the constitution. Proposals under discussion include amendments to Article 12 of the budget law, which would facilitate the formation of a "General Company for Kurdistan Region Oil." This entity, modeled after existing state oil companies, would operate under Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and oversee the extraction and exportation of oil in Kurdistan. “This proposal aims to resolve longstanding tensions between Baghdad and Erbil,” Al-Gharibawi said. What Could Be Done Next? In light of these challenges, the idea of establishing the Kurdistan Regional Oil Company (KROC) has gained traction as a potential solution. Modeled after Iraq’s state-owned oil companies, such as the North Oil Company and South Oil Company, KROC would operate under the supervision of the federal Ministry of Oil. This structure aims to reconcile the constitutional autonomy of the KRG with Baghdad’s demand for central oversight. The proposed company would handle the extraction, transportation, and exportation of oil from the Kurdistan Region, ensuring transparency and compliance with federal regulations. By creating a direct link between the KRG and the federal government, the KROC could help rebuild trust and establish a framework for equitable revenue sharing. Additionally, it could address concerns from IOCs about legal and financial stability, encouraging renewed investment in Kurdistan’s oil sector. Potential Challenges And Implications While the establishment of KROC presents a pathway to resolving disputes, significant challenges remain. Politically, it requires consensus between the KRG and Baghdad, as well as legislative amendments to Iraq’s budget and oil laws. These negotiations are likely to be contentious, given the deep-seated mistrust between the two sides. Economically, the success of KROC hinges on its ability to balance the interests of multiple stakeholders, including the federal government, the KRG, and IOCs. Ensuring transparency in revenue distribution and operational efficiency will be critical to its credibility. Additionally, KROC must address technical challenges, such as the cost of oil extraction in Kurdistan, which is higher than in other parts of Iraq due to the region’s geology. Source: Shafaq News

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Violations against journalists decreased by %27

Violations against journalists 2023: (249) 2024: (182) Decreased: (67) (27%) Arrest of journalists 2022: (37) arrests 2023: (24) arrests Decreased: (14) cases Decreased by 35% Source:Metro Center

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DNO's production in Kurdistan in Q4

Norwegian oil company DNO increased its gross production in Kurdistan on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter of 2024. But net production fell in the same period. On an annualized basis, gross production rose to 74,163 barrels of oil per day (65,773). Compared to the third quarter, this was a decline (84,212). The corresponding production in the North Sea was 6,602 barrels per day, compared with 11,236 barrels per day in the third quarter. Net entitlement production in Kurdistan fell to 17,424 b/d in Q4 (26,057). Sequentially, there was a slight decline from 17,607 b/d in the third quarter. In the North Sea, there was an increase in net production to 19,031 barrels of oil per day (16,879) and an increase on a quarterly basis (11,236). In Kurdistan, sales fell in Q4 to 17 424 barrels per day (26 057), with a small quarterly decline (17 607). In the North Sea, sales rose year-on-year to 17 088 barrels per day (15 628). On a quarterly basis, an increase was also recorded (15,307).

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The KRG Ministry of Finance responds to the Iraqi Ministry of Finance

In a statement, the KRG Ministry of Finance responded to the Iraqi Ministry of Finance's claim that it has said 11 trillion and 561 billion dinars have been sent for the salaries of the Kurdistan Region's employees in 2024. "Baghdad has sent only 10 trillion and 26 billion dinars for 2024, while the Kurdistan Region has sent 399 billion dinars to Baghdad, and the total domestic revenue was 4 trillion and 347 billion dinars," the KRG Ministry of Finance said. Kurdistan Regional Government responds to Iraqi Ministry of Finance: - (11 trillion and 576 billion) dinars was the share of the Kurdistan region - (726) billion dinars have been cut for pensions and taxes - Only 10 trillion and 26 billion dinars have been sent -  Domestic revenue was (4 trillion and 347 billion) dinars  - And (399) billion dinars have been sent to Baghdad The funds sent to Baghdad in 2024: (399 billion and 168 million) dinars were sent in five batches - For February: 85 billion 199 million dinars - For March: 70 billion 131 million dinars - For April: 74 billion, 844 million dinars For May: 91 billion 151 million dinars - For June: 77 billion, 841 million dinars Total domestic revenue of the KRG was 4 trillion, 347 billion, 484 million dinars - 960 billion dinars for salaries - 1 trillion 762 billion dinars for operating expenditures - 426 billion dinars for investment - 399 billion dinars sent to Baghdad - 652 billion dinars in cheques and (Maqsa) clearance revenue. Statement of the Iraqi Ministry of Finance: • The financial allocation of the Kurdistan Region for the compensation of the salaries of civil servants and security forces has reached (9,556,348) billion. • Salaries of the social welfare (130,931) billion. • Military pensions (650,040) billion. • Civilian pensions (776,657) billion. • Salaries of Anfal victims (98,346) billion. • Salaries of Anfal victims (soldiers) (338,479) billion. • Prisoners' allowance (10,721) billion.

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KRG Criticizes Baghdad Over Oil and Gas Management in Disputed Areas

 On Monday, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) expressed concern regarding Baghdad's plans to take unilateral steps to control oil and gas in Kirkuk and disputed areas, calling it a clear violation of the 2005 Iraqi Constitution. In a statement, the KRG cited Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution, which mandates a referendum in Kirkuk and disputed areas, to be conducted by Baghdad’s government before December 31, 2007. “Despite this, no Iraqi government has conducted the referendum in the past 20 years. Now, Baghdad is preparing to unilaterally seize control of oil and gas in these areas, while the Kurdish people demand these areas under Article 140.” “Under Articles 110 and 115 of the 2005 Iraqi Constitution, KRG has the absolute right to independently manage newly discovered oil and gas fields. Article 112 also stipulates joint management of previously discovered fields by Baghdad and Erbil, such as those in Kirkuk and surrounding areas. Baghdad is obligated to agree with the Region on the distribution of revenues from these older fields.”

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What was said at today's meeting?

At today's meeting of the Council of Ministers, with Kurdish representatives in Baghdad, Omid Sabah, Head of the Office of the Council of Ministers of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, presented the figures as follows: * The Kurdistan Region's share for 2024 was 16 trillion and 500 billion dinars, of which: The salary share in 2024 was 11 trillion 758 billion dinars. (9 trillion, 556 billion, 348 million and 2 thousand) dinars for the salaries of employees (2 trillion, 20 billion, 173 million and 330 thousand) dinars for social welfare salaries, pensions and social affairs The operating budget (2 trillion and 500 billion) dinars has not been spent. The investment budget (2 trillion and 500 billion) dinars has not been spent. Of the 11 trillion and 758 billion dinars, only 10 trillion and 758 billion dinars were allocated for salaries from Baghdad, but 726 billion dinars were deducted for pensions (10%) and salary tax. The remaining amount was 10 trillion and 26 billion dinars, which was enough for only 10 salaries. With 960 billion of domestic revenue allocated for salaries, KRG has been able to pay only 11 salaries.

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PM Barzani: Baghdad’s approach toward the KRG is unjust and oppressive

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) held a special Council of Ministers meeting in Erbil on Saturday to address the ongoing financial disputes between the KRG and the federal government of Iraq. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani criticised the actions of the Iraqi federal government toward the Kurdistan Region. "We have determined that Baghdad’s approach toward the KRG is unjust and oppressive, which is unacceptable," Barzani stated. Barzani further criticized the decisions of the Federal Court, claiming they have consistently favored the federal government's interests over those of the Kurdish people.

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The oil revenue of the Kurdistan Region was previously $1.179 billion per month

According to Masrour Barzani, the Kurdistan Region's oil revenue was previously 1 billion 179 million dollars a month, or 1 trillion 700 billion dinars. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said on his official account on (X) that "the delay in exporting oil from the Kurdistan Region has hurt Iraq’s economy as a whole—over $25 billion in lost revenue to date." If Masrour Barzani's statement is interpreted: Oil exports from the Kurdistan Region were suspended on March 25, 2023. Since then, it has been one year, 9 months, and 10 days. This means that the oil revenue of the Kurdistan Region was 25 billion dollars within one year, 9 months, and 10 days. If we divide the $25 billion by that period, it is $1.179 billion per month, or 1 trillion 768 billion dinars monthly. Although oil revenues vary according to the daily price, this interpretation is for the 25 billion dollars, for the period when oil exports were suspended, that is, from March 25, 2023, to today, as Masrour Barzani has mentioned.

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Iran executes 138 people in December 2024

At least 138 prisoners were executed in prisons across the Islamic Republic of Iran during December 2024, marking a 9.5% increase compared to November, when 126 executions were recorded. Notably, 20% of those executed were Kurds.  The Statistics and Documents Centre of the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights has confirmed the identities of 137 executed prisoners, while the identity of one prisoner is still under investigation.  The executions in December included at least 28 Kurdish prisoners, 22 Baloch prisoners, 15 Turkish prisoners, 12 Lor prisoners, and 6 Gilak prisoners. Additionally, at least nine Afghan nationals were executed last month  Six women were executed in the prisons of Ilam (2 cases), Isfahan, Zanjan, Yazd, and Sari. All six had been sentenced to death on charges of premeditated murder.  Of the 138 prisoners executed, only 3 cases were officially reported in Iranian state-affiliated media or judiciary-related outlets. Furthermore, the death sentences of 6 prisoners were carried out secretly, without notifying their families or granting them a final visit.    Classification by charges:  Drug-related offenses: 75 cases (54.5% of total executions)  Premeditated murder: 61 cases  Armed robbery: 2 cases    Separation of execution of death sentences according to provinces:  The highest number of executions in December 2024 occurred in Alborz Province with 19 cases, followed by Isfahan and Fars Provinces.  Alborz Province: 19 cases  Isfahan Province: 14 cases  Fars Province: 11 cases  Yazd and Sistan-Baluchistan Provinces: 10 cases each  Gilan Province: 9 cases  West Azerbaijan (Urmia) Province: 8 cases  South Khorasan Province: 7 cases  Razavi Khorasan and East Azerbaijan Provinces: 6 cases each  Ilam, Lorestan, Hamedan, Mazandaran, Qom, Qazvin, and Kerman Provinces: 4 cases each  Khuzestan, Markazi, and Golestan Provinces: 2 cases each  Kermanshah, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Zanjan, and Semnan Provinces: 1 case each Source: Hengaw

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In 2024, the KRG owes 1.9 trillion IQD to the employees.

The Kurdistan Region Government (KRG) paid the salaries of 10 months in 2024 but not the salaries of November and December. In most years, KRG does not spend the final months' salaries. Since 2015, the KRG has not paid the salaries for four years as follows: 2015: Did not pay the salaries of September, October, November, and December. 2020: Did not pay the salaries of November and December. 2023: Did not pay the salaries of October, November, and December. 2024: Did not pay the salaries of November and December. The monthly salary of the KRG employees is 996 billion dinars. For the months of October, November, and December of 2024, the amount is 1 trillion 992 billion dinars, despite the fact that no month the salaries have not been paid on time. On average, salaries are paid every 40 days. From 2015 to 2024, the Kurdistan Region Government treated the salaried employees as follows: 17 Salaries have not been paid in full 44 Salaries have been paid in arrears and deductions 10 Salaries have been paid with a (21%) deduction. - A total of 61 months of unpaid salaries and arrears and deductions. That is 51% of the wages in the past 10 years. Total: (59) months salary paid in full. That is only 49% of all salaries, in the past 10 years. The KRG has several main sources of revenue: Baghdad has sent 631 billion dinars for November Domestic revenue monthly (320) billion dinars International Aid for the Peshmerga (20) billion dinars In addition to oil revenues (unknown), about 300,000 barrels of oil are produced daily and sold at $40 a barrel, which is $360 million per month.

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Seventy days after elections, formation of government is uncertain

Seventy days have passed since the Kurdistan parliamentary elections, and the prospects for forming a government are unclear. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) met in Pirmam on November 17. They agreed to prepare a joint program for forming the tenth cabinet as soon as possible. According to the information obtained by Draw Media, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) wants to form the government in the same form as now. The PUK currently has a negotiating committee and has prepared several scenarios. PUK demands the post of prime minister to get the post of president. (Draw) has learned that the PUK rejects the post of speaker of parliament and does not want Qubad Talabani to take the deputy post, but he wants to get a high position. None of the parties that won the October 20, 2024 elections could secure 50+1 seats in the Kurdistan Parliament, which is 100 seats, 95 general seats, and 5 final seats. - Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) 39 seats - Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (23) seats - New Generation Movement, 15 seats - Kurdistan Islamic Union, 7 seats - National Position Movement: 4 seats - Justice Group, 3 seats - People's Front, 2 seats - Gorran Movement, 1 seat - Kurdistan Alliance, 1 seat

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Sulaimani's revenue has decreased by about 300 billion dinars

According to the data of the "Transparency" website, the revenue of the Sulaimani region in 2024 was (897) billion dinars, and the revenue of the Sulaimani region in 2023 was (1 trillion and 173 billion) dinars. Which means Sulaimani's revenue has decreased by about 300 billion dinars. According to the data of the "Transparency" website, this year's revenue of the provinces (Sulaimani and Halabja) and the autonomous administrations (Garmyan and Raperin) until today was 897 billion and 403 million dinars, 84% of which was in cash, 11% in cheque, and 5% in (Maqsa) clearance revenue. According to the data, last year's revenue of the provinces (Sulaimani and Halabja) and the autonomous administrations (Garmyan and Raperin) was 1 trillion, 173 billion, and 990 million dinars. Since the difference is more than 276 billion dinars, the revenue of the Sulaimani region decreased by 24%, which is related to the fact that part of the revenue from customs and border crossings does not return to the government treasury and smuggling of goods has increased. Compared to 2021, the revenue of the Sulaimani region for one month decreased from 161 billion dinars to 53 billion dinars (the revenue returns to the government treasury), while the revenue of only one month in the 2021 Bashmakh border crossing was 23 billion dinars. According to the statistics on the "Transparency" website, the revenue of Sulaimani was as follows: December 2024: 53 billion, 166 million dinars November 2024: 61 billion, 50 million dinars January 2024: 70 billion, 318 million dinars February 2024: 95 billion, 316 million dinars

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 Iraqi Ministry of Finance: 10 trillion and 901 billion IQD have been sent to the KRG in 10 months

According to the reports of the Iraqi Ministry of Finance from the beginning of the year to the end of October 2024, the Ministry has funded more than 10 trillion and 901 billion dinars to the Kurdistan Regional Government, so that; 🔹 About 7 trillion and 688 billion dinars have been sent for the salaries of employees (71% of the expenditures) 🔹 More than 251 billion and 699 million dinars have been sent to the field of services. (2% of the expenditures) 🔹 More than 285 billion and 143 million dinars have been sent to the field of goods. (3% of the expenditures) 🔹 More than 130 billion and 825 million dinars have been sent for the maintenance of assets. (1% of the expenditures) 🔹 More than 485 billion and 831 million dinars have been sent for grants, aid, and other expenditures. (4% of the expenditures) 🔹 More than 1 trillion 973 billion and 246 million dinars have been sent for social welfare. (18% of the expenditures) 🔹 More than 86 billion and 648 million dinars have been sent for investment expenditures. (1% of the expenditures)

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Syrian Kurds Need a No-Fly Zone

Draw Media Michael Rubin - Middle East Forum Observer   Like many more recent U.S. presidents, George H.W. Bush was prone to promises and rhetoric with little thought about the impact of his words. So it was when, on February 15, 1991, Bush, riding high from Kuwait’s liberation, called upon the Iraqi people to “take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside.” Iraqi Kurds and Shi’ites listened. On March 4, 1991, Kurds in the town of Ranya rose up against Saddam’s tyranny. Within 15 days, the peshmerga controlled Iraqi Kurdistan’s major towns and cities. While Bush rhetorically encouraged the Iraqis to press for their freedom, he also sought to hasten the U.S. exit from Iraq itself, while some within his State Department sought a hastened return to normality. Accordingly, U.S. forces released their Republican Guard prisoners of war, just in time for Saddam to rally to put down the Kurdish and Shi’ite rebellions. As Saddam’s helicopter gunships began attacking Kurdish villages, and with his chemical weapons a recent memory, millions of Kurds began trekking across snowy mountain passes to cross into Turkey. The last thing the Turkish government wanted was more Kurds inside Turkey, and so President Turgat Özal suggested the idea to create a “safe haven” in northern Iraq. United Nations Security Council Resolutions 678 and 688 provided a legal foundation. Özal allowed U.S., British, and French jets to use Turkish air bases to patrol a “no-fly zone” in Iraqi airspace above the 36th parallel, and U.S. forces also secured a 36-square-mile safe haven centered around the Iraqi Kurdish town of Zakho. As Kurds poured into the safe haven, American forces expanded it to 9,300 square miles, roughly the size of New Hampshire. [Erdoğan] believes his God-given mission is to eradicate the Kurds just as the late Ottoman officials, after whom he models himself, decimated the Armenians. History rhymes, even if it does not repeat. President Joe Biden, like the elder Bush, could encourage rebellions he had no intention of backing. The State Department, meanwhile, is willing to rush reconciliation. The Biden administration’s decision to lift the bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani) normalizes him just as he and Turkey’s current Islamist government announce their goal to eradicate the Kurdish self-government in northeastern Syria. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s offer to take over guard duty at Al-Hol prison camp, where thousands of Islamic State fighters and their families remain under guard, is risible, the equivalent of an arsonist offering to guard the gasoline depot and match factory. The situation would be worse, however, as the thousands of Islamic State fighters would spread out not only across Syria and the Middle East, but also into Europe—with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan happily extorting concessions from weak European and NATO leaders in exchange for promises not to turn on the spigot of illegal immigration. Erdoğan is no Özal. He sees the West as weak and, while Özal sought acceptance of Turkey’s Kurds and Islamists, Erdoğan looks at the world as a zero-sum game: He believes his God-given mission is to eradicate the Kurds just as the late Ottoman officials, after whom he models himself, decimated the Armenians. Nor, unlike in 1991, do the Syrian Kurds have anywhere to go. To flee into Turkey would be the equivalent of digging their own mass graves. Iraqi Kurdistan is no option. Iraq’s Kurdistan Democratic Party is today less a Kurdish nationalist party than a party of jash [collaborators] whose leaders—Masoud, Masrour, Waysi, and Areen Barzani—have sold Kurdish nationalism for personal profit. Their vision of Iraqi Kurdistan is essentially a duplicate of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus, an occupied zone and money laundering hub pretending to be a functioning state. Simply speaking, a Turkish move into “Rojava,” as the Syrian Kurds often call their region, would both stain Biden’s legacy and guarantee failure to the Trump administration’s goals of expanding the Abraham Accords, ending terror, and protecting Israel’s security. It is time, therefore, to borrow a page from Özal’s playbook and establish a no-fly zone and safe haven stretching from Afrin to Semalka and from Qamishli to Deir ez-Zour. Turkey would not cooperate, and Erdoğan would not acquiesce, but the United States does not need Turkey’s air bases nor Erdoğan’s permission given the Özal precedent. The goal will be humanitarian. Erdoğan talks about diplomacy, so who is he to argue? His Syrian proxies, frankly, may welcome the excuse not to be pushed into a devastating conflict with non-threatening Kurds when other groups in southern Syria have yet to accept Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s dominance. It would be in Jordan’s interest to prevent an Islamist, anti-Hashemite, and pro-Hamas regime like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from advancing to its borders. The U.S. military can supply the safe haven by land from Jordan, because much of the desert region between the two is lightly inhabited and easily secured. It would be in Jordan’s interest to prevent an Islamist, anti-Hashemite, and pro-Hamas regime like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from advancing to its borders. Israel can prove its rhetoric sincere by allowing the use of its air bases and perhaps even its own pilots. Saudi Arabia, which quietly has established relations with Syrian Kurds, due to the Kingdom’s own concerns about Erdogan’s expansionism and his ideological aggression, might also participate from its air bases, as could European powers Iraqi Kurds, too, may not like the political competition their co-ethnicists in Syria represent, but if they want the security of U.S. forces in Erbil, it simply may be the price they must pay. Masrour Barzani dreams of his own fiefdom but apparently has not paid U.S. taxes over the 21 years since he acquired his U.S. green card. As much as he blusters on his own television channel, he acts like a lamb in his Washington meetings for fear of antagonizing those Americans whom he has not bought. Likewise, Erdoğan talks like a bully, but it is one thing for his military to bomb lightly armed Kurds and Armenians who have no air defense; it is quite another for him to move against neighbors or modern air forces. There can be no delay. Whether Biden-era National Security Council aid Brett McGurk, Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf, or likely Trump team members Joel Rayburn or Morgan Ortagus, it is time to set up a no-fly zone and tell Turkey “No more” to its expansionism, ethnic cleansing, and support for radical Islamism.  

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