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By  Binar FK، Middle East & North Africa

Historic call opens rare opportunity to de-escalate long-standing conflict across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran

After spending a quarter of his life in solitary confinement in a Turkish prison on İmralı Island, Abdullah Öcalan — the 76-year-old leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — last week issued a handwritten letter calling for “peace and a democratic society.”

Just 48 hours later, the PKK – a group long branded as “terrorist” by Turkey and the United States among others — declared an immediate ceasefire with Turkey, a stunning shift after 40 years of armed resistance. Öcalan’s message was unequivocal: “Convene your congress, integrate with the state and society voluntarily, and make a decision; all groups must lay down their arms, and the PKK must dissolve itself.”

The historic call by Öcalan opens a rare opportunity for de-escalation of a long-standing conflict in a region plagued by far too many. But resolving the conflict through dialogue will not be easy and will require a serious undertaking by all stakeholders. If successful, however, this development could reshape Turkey’s domestic landscape, alleviate regional tensions, and reverberate across Syria, Iraq, and Iran — all countries with significant and often restive Kurdish minority populations.

Turkey

The PKK according to Öcalan was a historical necessity that emerged in reaction to the complete “denial of Kurdish reality, restrictions on basic rights and freedoms, especially freedom of expression.” Turkish authorities have limited the ability of Kurds – some 15 million people, or 18-20 percent of the country’s population – from using their native language in schools, media or other official settings or achieving other autonomous rights.

Over nearly four decades, PKK resistance has led to significant violence, killing some 40,000 people. It has been a central factor in Turkey’s security calculus, used as justification for extensive military operations in the country’s southeast as well as frequent incursions into Syria and Iraq. 

However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is seeking a constitutional amendment that would allow him to serve more than two terms, needs support beyond his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party from Turkish nationalist voters or pro-Kurdish political parties.

Turkish local election results in 2024 showed the nationalist opposition Republican Peoples’ Party or CHP outpacing the AK party by 37 to 35 percent. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) took 5.70 percent, a significant share in Turkey’s fragmented electoral landscape. The results also further solidified Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu of the CHP as Erdoğan’s primary challenger. A perceived triumph over the PKK could improve Erdogan’s political standing among his religious base and Turkish nationalists as well.

Demobilization of the PKK would require legal and security guarantees for fighters and an approach to transitional justice that addresses root causes.  This could create an environment where the Kurds could engage more politically and peacefully to achieve the goals of the Kurdish struggle for basic cultural, linguistic and local representation rights.

“Respect for identities, free self-expression, democratic self-organization of each segment of society based on their own socio-economic and political structures, are only possible through the existence of a democratic society and political space.”  Öcalan outlined in his letter. 

Syria

The major announcement by the PKK leader coincides with significant developments in Turkey’s neighbor, Syria, where the four-decade-old Assad dictatorship collapsed abruptly in December in the face of Turkish-backed Syrian forces.

In northern Syria, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a largely ethnic Kurdish group, established an autonomous area after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 and later became the principal American ally in the fight against the Islamic State. Turkey, however, regards the group as an offshoot of the PKK and has backed the rival Syrian National Army (SNA). It launched several military campaigns against SDF-controlled territories occupying the Kurdish-majority city of Afrin in 2018 and other offensives and incursions into Syria in succeeding years.

SDF chief General Mazloum Abdi turned down Öcalan’s call to disarm and dissolve, stating that it “is only for the PKK [and is not] related to us in Syria.” Nevertheless, Abdi welcomed the letter, calling it “a historic opportunity to build peace and a key to opening correct and constructive relations in the region.”

It remains unclear whether Syrian Kurds will be able to resolve their differences with the new government in Damascus led by a former jihadist group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Abdi has affirmed the SDF’s commitment to Syrian unity but seeks to maintain his forces within a new national army and to retain considerable autonomy for Kurdish areas under a decentralized, secular, and civil state.

There have been reports of ongoing talks between Damascus and Syrian Kurds but interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa excluded the SDF from a recent national conference to chart a political roadmap.  If, however, an agreement can be reached between the SDF and the Sharaa government, that could help alleviate tensions with Turkey and serve the interests of minority communities in northeastern Syria.

Iraq and the KRI

In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), leaders across the political spectrum welcomed Öcalan’s proposal. KRI President Nechirvan Barzani and the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Bafel Talabani, both lauded the proposed dissolution of the PKK as what Talabani called a “responsible and necessary call at this stage to unite the Kurds and resolve issues through peaceful dialogue based on partnership and solidarity.”

The PKK presence in the Qandil mountains of northern Iraq has been a persistent source of friction with Turkey, which has repeatedly launched strikes and ground incursions into KRI territories. If the PKK dissolves, it would remove the Turkish incentive to continue such strikes and help to stabilize the area. 

Sinjar, home to the Yazidi ethnic minority, would likely also benefit. In 2014, when ISIS launched an onslaught on Sinjar, forcing some 250,000 Yazidis to flee to Mount Sinjar and endure a siege there, the PKK and its affiliates conducted a rescue operation, establishing a safe corridor for civilians to flee. Kurdish and Iraqi authorities have sought to reassert their authority through the Sinjar Agreement to establish a new governance and security framework, but it has yet to be carried out. PKK disarmament could facilitate the implementation of this agreement.

The KRI could also be a key player in providing logistical and technical support, potentially offering asylum to senior PKK leaders and overseeing the disarmament process.

Iran

Iran’s Kurdish minority has a history of resistance to rule from Tehran, dating back to the creation of a Soviet-backed Kurdish enclave in the aftermath of World War II and an uprising after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. A dismantling of the PKK could have a significant impact on similar movements in Iran, including the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK).

PJAK was founded on the ideology of the PKK but has maintained a ceasefire with the Islamic regime since 2011. Öcalan referred to the group in his letter, writing that “all groups must lay down their arms.”

Iran considers other Kurdish opposition armed groups as threats and in September 2018 launched a missile strike on the headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan in the town of Koya in Iraqi Kurdistan.

This new paradigm could help Iran, which has seen its regional allies weakened over the past 15 months, revise its stance on indigenous Kurds.

Meysam Moradi, an expert on Kurdish issues from Kermanshah, Iran, who is studying international politics and governance at Roskilde University in Denmark, told this author that the Iranian establishment is closely monitoring regional developments in light of Öcalan’s initiative.

“It is understandable that Iran would initiate measures in response to these shifts,” he said. “A key factor in this equation is the recent Kurdish experience in Syria and the establishment of a semi-autonomous region, which enjoys support from the West. Tehran is deeply aware of these unprecedented geopolitical changes in the region and will likely adopt pre-emptive measures to mitigate their impact, which may include implementing a similar ‘peace process’ model within the country.”

Öcalan’s historic call for the PKK to dissolve represents a significant opportunity for peace and political integration in a wide swath of the Middle East, with potential to reshape not only Turkey’s security and political dynamics but also impacting broader regional stability. If all parties engage sincerely, this moment could transform longstanding conflict into constructive political dialogue, fostering a more inclusive and democratic society across the region.

Binar FK is a Fellow at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies and is pursuing Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Based in the United States, he writes on and researches political and security issues in the Middle East. He previously worked in journalism, covering wars and conflicts in the region, focusing on extremist groups like ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other militias.