Shafaq News/ Following the historic call by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan for his group to lay down arms, ending a more than 40-year conflict with Turkiye, attention is now focused on how this call will be implemented. Multiple scenarios are being considered, ranging from full or partial implementation to a hybrid approach varying by region.

Öcalan’s Historic Message & Reactions

On February 27, 2025, Abdullah Öcalan issued his historic call from his prison on Imrali Island, urging the PKK to disarm and dissolve. The message was read in Istanbul by a delegation from the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), which visited Öcalan earlier that day.

In his message, Öcalan took "historical responsibility" for the call, stressing the need to transition the struggle from armed conflict to the political arena.

The call has been welcomed internationally, with the White House calling it a "major development" that could promote peace in the troubled region. It also expressed hope that it would help ease tensions between Turkiye and its allies in the fight against ISIS in northeastern Syria.

Internally, Turkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) expects the PKK to comply with Öcalan’s call, believing it would help liberate Turkiye from the constraints of the conflict.

In Iraq's Kurdistan Region, President Nechirvan Barzani welcomed the call, urging PKK members to adhere to it and stressing that it was time for a "peaceful and democratic struggle."

Prime Minister Masrour Barzani also expressed support for Turkiye’s peace efforts, and Bafel Talabani, President of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), called on all parties to commit to Öcalan’s call, describing it as the start of a "significant phase" towards peace and brotherly coexistence between Kurds and Turks.

On the other hand, SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi said Öcalan’s announcement is unrelated to Syria and pertains solely to the PKK.

Abdi described the announcement as a “positive step” since it advocates for ending the war and initiating a peaceful political process in Turkiye. He added, “If peace is achieved in Turkiye, there will be no justification for continued attacks on us in Syria.”

Öcalan’s Call Sparks Optimism

Hours after its leader’s call, the PKK agreed to declare a ceasefire. "These are clear signs pointing towards the resolution of a long-standing issue, which will undoubtedly improve relations between Iraq and Turkiye," says political analyst Yasin Aziz in an interview with Shafaq News.

Aziz anticipates that the positive developments following Öcalan’s call could span political, diplomatic, security, and economic realms.

He believes that if the PKK issue is resolved, it will end a period of security tensions and military escalation in several areas of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which have strained Baghdad-Ankara relations.

Among the potential positive outcomes, Aziz points to the return of displaced villagers to their homes in Kurdistan, which were abandoned due to military operations and fighting between PKK fighters and Turkish forces, warning that "The PKK's presence has been used by Turkiye to justify establishing numerous military bases and breaching international borders for years.”

The Positive Scenario

Abdul Salam Broari, a former Kurdistan Parliament member, agrees with Aziz’s view of the “positive developments” that could arise from Öcalan’s call, calling it the “positive scenario” for the future.

In an interview with Shafaq News, Broari describes Öcalan’s call as “positive in itself,” noting that it was received positively by Turkiye, the PKK leadership, and internationally. However, he stressed that the success of this scenario depends on turning Öcalan’s call into a practical reality.

Broari explains that positive effects for Kurdistan would be seen if all PKK-affiliated groups complied with Öcalan’s directive to disarm and dissolve. He also called for Turkiye to take positive steps, such as a program to reintegrate PKK members and address detained leaders and cadres.

He believes the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Kurdistan since their presence is based on the PKK's existence, would contribute to regional stability, facilitate reconstruction in areas the PKK has occupied since 1992, and “end threats from both Turkiye and Iran.”

The Worst-Case Scenario

However, Broari also warns of a potential opposite scenario. This would involve Turkiye and the PKK reaching an agreement in which the PKK dissolves within Turkiye and abandons armed struggle, but its armed groups remain outside, notably through the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria and other units in Sinjar and along the Iraq -Turkiye border. "These groups could argue that they are not the PKK, but have different names—such as the Yazidi Protection Units in Sinjar, or the Freedom Party in Al-Sulaymaniyah and Kalar," he explains.

Broari also expresses concern that these groups' continued presence in Iraq could justify Turkiye’s ongoing presence and attacks in the region, preventing any change in the relationship between Turkiye and Iraq on this issue. He notes the role of Iran, given these groups’ good relations with Tehran or its sympathizers.

“The worst-case scenario is more likely soon,” he concludes.

Turkiye’s Warning and Mixed Reactions

Despite the PKK’s declaration of a ceasefire, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has warned that Turkiye will resume operations against the PKK if disarmament is not fully implemented or promises are not kept.

This warning came on the same day the PKK announced its ceasefire in response to Öcalan’s call, with the PKK's executive committee stating that "disarmament can only be achieved through the operational leadership of Leader Apo."

Security expert Sarmad Al-Bayati echoes similar concerns, noting that Öcalan’s call is not the first, with previous calls—most recently in 2013—remaining unimplemented. Al-Bayati warns that if the PKK agrees to disarm, the issue of Turkish forces staying in Kurdistan will remain unresolved. "If the PKK refuses to surrender its weapons, this could lead to a large-scale Turkish military operation, and Ankara may request Baghdad's help," he added.

Al-Bayati also points out that the SDF and some factions in Syria have dismissed Öcalan’s call, claiming “It does not concern them.”

He suggested that the call could affect the relationship between Iraq and Turkiye, especially as these groups remain active in Iraq.