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Draw Media poll, after the selection process

Do you think the tenth cabinet will be formed soon? The poll department of Draw media Organization conducted a poll after the election process, to get people's opinion on the election process and the formation of the tenth cabinet, here we publish a part of the poll. Introduction • This poll was conducted by the survey department (Draw Media Organization) from 20-28 Novermbe, 2024. • The poll was conducted face to face with people in the provinces of Sulaimani, Halabja and the autonomous administrations of Garmian and Raperin. Poll Summary: • 46% believe that the elections were clean and free from fraud. • 29% believe that the elections were designed and fraudulent • 40% believe that the tenth cabinet will not be formed soon. • (30%) believe that the tenth cabinet will be formed soon. • 29% prefer all forces to participate in the tenth cabinet. • 19% prefer the tenth cabinet to be formed only by the PUK and KDP. • (10%) think it is important for the NGM to participate in the tenth cabinet. • (2%) prefer the KDP to form the tenth cabinet without the PUK.

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Kurdistan Parliament failed to elect its leadership due to lack of quorum

 On Monday, the first session of the sixth term of Kurdistan Region’s Parliament began with the participation of 97 out of 100 elected candidates. Acting under the guidance of the eldest member, the Parliament opened nominations for the leadership roles, with several political blocs presenting their candidates for the three positions.  For the Parliament leadership, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has nominated Vala Fareed and Halgurd Sheikh Najib. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has put forward Shalaw Kosrat Rasool and Miran Mohammed. Additionally, the New Generation Movement nominated Kurdawan Jamal. However, due to the absence of a number of lawmakers, the session could not meet the legal quorum, leading to its temporary suspension. The parliamentary elections held last October resulted in (a total of 100): - Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): 39 seats - Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): 23 seats - New Generation Movement: 15 seats - Kurdistan Islamic Union: 7 seats - Halwest Movement: 4 seats - Kurdistan Justice Group: 3 seats - People's Front: 2 seats - Change Movement (Gorran): 1 seat - Kurdistan Regional Alliance: 1 seat - Component Quota: 5 seats

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U.S. Ambassador to Iraq: We encourage full implementation of the IKR press law and access to information law

The outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski participated in an interview with IKR media outlets including Draw Media, to discuss U.S. priorities for strengthening the bilateral relationship with Iraq. During the interview, Romanowski discussed the importance of a swift government formation now that the elections in the Kurdistan Region have been successfully conducted. Responding to Draw Media's question, regarding the U.S. view on the media freedom landscape and continued press violations in the KRI, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq insisted that they are proud to support the role of a free and independent press in the IKR and encourage full implementation of the IKR press law and access to information law.  

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Turkey Links Terrorism to Kurdish Ethnic Cleansing

Diary Marif  My narrative arises from personal experiences, depicting the sense of insecurity under Turkish drones. I illustrate numerous instances where the Turkish government’s actions instilled panic and caused civilian casualties in Iraq and Syrian Kurdistan, often rationalized as their fight against terrorism. This pattern reveals Turkey’s agenda to eliminate the Kurdish population, a part of a long history marked by blatant crimes against the Kurds. I request that everyone vociferously oppose Turkey’s aggressive actions. The strength of the Kurds is crucial; if they are destroyed, extremist groups such as ISIS gain power, endangering global safety. To safeguard the world, you must ensure the safety of the Kurds.   In early December 2023, my friends and I camped in Penjween, an Iraqi-Kurdish town near the Iranian border. As we began our day, we saw a Turkish drone hovering above us. A surge of fear gripped me instantly, knowing the devastating impact these drones have had on innocent civilians miles away from Turkey’s borders. Throughout the day, the looming presence of the drone cast a shadow of anxiety over me until our safe return home. My experience is just one among countless Kurdish stories in Iraq and Syria, where these drones have become a haunting presence, bringing fear and uncertainty to our daily lives. A few weeks later, on December 25, 2023, when I returned to Canada, Turkish drones caused the deaths of 10 civilians and destroyed facilities in northeastern Syria, an area predominantly inhabited by the Kurds. In Iraq, two journalists were recently killed near my family’s home in Said Sadiq when a Turkish drone struck their vehicle. These attacks are part of a broader series of assaults in August and September 2024, which have increasingly targeted civilians. The Turkish government upholds its policy of targeting Kurdish populations in Syria and Iraq under the name of fighting terror, where Kurds have established semi-autonomous administrative regions.  Since 1991, the Kurdish region in Iraq has been granted a level of self-governance, allowing Kurds to oversee their internal affairs including security, education, and economic development while maintaining their connection to the broader Iraqi nation. In Syria, a similar semi-autonomous setup emerged during the Syrian Civil War in 2012, predominantly in the northern regions where Kurds reside. Here, Kurdish forces such as the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) have established an administration with limited autonomy. However, this autonomous Kurdish region is not officially recognized by the Syrian government. According to multiple sources, Turkish forces have conducted over 6,500 airstrikes, primarily in Kurdish areas of Syria and Iraq since 2016. As a result, thousands of civilians have been killed or wounded as these attacks have escalated in frequency and expanded deeper into Iraq and Syria in recent years. The Turkish regime has justified these assaults to the global community, claiming they target the Kurdistan Workers Party, (Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan: PKK), which has been in conflict with Turkey since the 1980s, resulting in the deaths of more than 40,000 individuals, civilians included, on both sides. The relationship between Turkey and the PKK has been characterized by conflict and tension for decades. The PKK, established in 1978, initiated an armed insurgency against the Turkish government in 1984, seeking to advance Kurdish rights and autonomy. Designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the PKK has been the target of numerous military operations conducted by the Turkish government within its borders and in northern Iraq, where the PKK has established bases. Despite intermittent ceasefires and attempts at peace talks, the conflict has persisted, leading to ongoing violence and instability in the region. However, the most recent Turkish attacks have targeted civilian sites where the PKK is not present, resulting in largely civilian casualties. The data suggest that Turkey employs drones that do not solely target the PKK. Rather than combating specific threats, Turkey appears to use drone interventions to dismantle broader aspects of Kurdish political and military movements, potentially leading to ethnic, cultural, and environmental cleansing, which are supported by the following facts. Since 2018, the Turkish military has invaded several Syrian Kurdish cities and continuously threatens to invade others, which Turkey justifies by arguing that they need to create a “safe zone” in northern Syria to serve as a buffer against the ongoing Syrian war. Also, President Donald Trump withdrew US troops from along the Turkey-Syria border, providing Turkey with an opportunity to seize its  “safe zone.”  Turkey invaded a large zone in Iraqi Kurdistan and built around 40 military bases. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria reported instances of Turkish-backed forces engaging in sexual violence against both women and men, along with the recruitment of children into the military. In Iraqi Kurdistan alone, 158 villages have been evacuated due to attacks, with an additional 600 villages at risk of evacuation. The natural environment in Iraqi Kurdistan and Syrian Kurdistan is also being degraded by cutting down trees to build roads for the Turkish military and selling the felled trees illegally for economic gain. The drones and airstrikes have also targeted oil facilities, healthcare centers, and critical infrastructure in Syrian Kurdistan. This has resulted in a 50% drop in electricity production, as reported by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. The crimes committed by the Turkish government against the Kurds are just a glimpse into a vast sea of injustices carried out under the guise of fighting the PKK. To understand the logic of current Turkish politics towards the Kurds, it is helpful to go back to the historic background of Kurdish life since the early 20th century.   Kurdish YPG Fighters. Photo @Wikimedia Commons   The Young Turks, a diverse coalition active from 1889 to 1918, initiated a revolutionary movement focused on advocating Turkish nationalism aimed at reclaiming historically connected territories. They promoted a pan-Turkic ideology centred around regions sharing Turkic cultural ties, to control the Kurdish region. The Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 that divided the region was seen as a challenge by the Young Turks to Anglo-Franco powers. Mustafa Kemal (1881-1938), known as the founding father of modern Turkey after its establishment in 1923, implemented policies geared towards forging a unified Turkish nation-state with a strong emphasis on Turkish identity. The 1924 Turkish constitution emphasized the singular identity of the Turkish nation and strictly forbid the use of languages or identities other than Turkish which was harshly imposed on minority groups, particularly Kurds. This repression led many Kurds to link the Turkish state and the concept of Turkish identity with the brutal suppression they endured. The Kurds were targeted by a nationalist agenda aiming to assimilate Kurds, forcibly disconnecting them from their heritage and culture. İsmet İnönü (1884 – 1973), Turkey’s second president (1938 – 1950), outlined this nationalist stance by emphasizing the dominance of the Turkish majority and advocating for the enforced Turkification of all inhabitants, expressing a willingness to eliminate those who resisted. The process of assimilating continued to be enforced in the following decades. The era between the foundation of the republic from 1923 to the early 1990s was the period of “Denial” by Turkish governments, which refers to the denial of the existence of Kurds and called for the policies of assimilation and oppression as “civilizing missions”. For many decades, the Kurdish language, culture, folklore, and names were prohibited. The terms “Kurds,” “Kurdistan,” and “Kurdish” were outlawed, with the government insisting on labelling Kurds as “Mountain Turks,” claiming that their language had merely deviated from Turkish over time. The Kurds are also called “Barbarians,” and “lack of culture.” In the 1990s, Turgut Özal (1927 – 1993), who served as President (1989 – 1993), made efforts to improve the situation of Kurds in Turkey. Before he passed away, Özal pursued policies aimed at easing restrictions on Kurdish cultural expression and language rights. In the 1990s, the Kurds experienced some improvements known as the “Period of recognition.” However, instead of assimilation, Kurds were often seen as distinct from Turkish identity, facing racial stereotypes based on physical traits and cultural perceptions that represented them as violent, crude and hypersexual. In the 2000s, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government introduced reforms towards Kurds, aiming to address long-standing issues. The AKP initiated policies for greater cultural rights and recognition of the Kurdish identity. Erdogan’s Turkey has grown into an enterprising regional interventionist power. By employing global economic integration, soft power, and fostering a peaceful environment, Ahmet Davutoglu, the Chief Adviser to Prime Minister Erdogan, articulated the ‘Zero Problems with the Neighbours’ policy, one of the four key principles of the AKP government’s foreign policy. This approach, rooted in modified neo-Ottomanism, sought to establish Turkey as a leader in the Middle East and strengthen its eligibility for EU membership. Erdogan’s new approach aimed to influence neighbouring countries using Turkish schools, television series, and culture. Additionally, Ankara’s foreign policy relied on contracts with Turkish companies abroad and trade agreements. However, these methods didn’t meet Erdogan’s goal of controlling Kurdistan. The 2015 and 2016, Erdogan’s political strategies with an emphasis on nationalism and security concerns led to a hardline approach against Kurdish movements, often prioritizing a singular national narrative over minority rights. ​​This was due to the pressure he faced from nationalist groups who wanted a tougher stance against the Kurds. Additionally, Erdogan was scared of strengthening Syrian Kurds and the tensions between the PKK and the Turkish state heightened again. Erdogan dreams of going back to the Ottoman Empire and he regularly describes himself as the “Grandchild” of the Ottomans. Turkey reverting to an Ottoman-like state would require a level of harshness and control akin to what Erdogan is prepared to implement. His regime was actively engaged with its pan-Islamic and nationalistic ambitions in eliminating the most “disloyal” segments of the Kurdish population. Within Turkey, Kurds including lawyers, politicians, singers, activists, and students face relentless detentions and imprisonment under the accusation that they are PKK members. Moreover, a troubling wave of hate crimes perpetrated by ultra-nationalists against Kurds has emerged, fueled by Erdogan’s rhetoric and the support of his allies and his announcement that “Turkey does not face a Kurdish issue.” Erdogan exhibits an aversion towards Kurds, even extending to concerns about the growth of the Kurdish population. In a video, he encourages Turkish families to have more children, Erdogan asserts, “The PKK [families] has 5, 10, 15 children,” while simultaneously accusing millions of Kurdish citizens of terrorism. The contradiction lies in the fact that the PKK members are restricted from having children due to the organization’s prohibition on marriage and any sexual relationships among its fighters. Similar to the former Turkish authorities, Erdogan thought the Kurds were the main problem for his hegemony. His assault on Kurds spanning beyond Turkey’s borders has been ongoing. The new assaults violate the principles of warfare, breach international regulations, safeguarding human rights and disregarding the sovereignty of other nations. According to International humanitarian law, “The parties to a conflict must at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants, and between civilian objects and military objectives”. In the eyes of the governing elite and many ordinary people not only the rebellious Kurds are the enemy, but all Kurds are potential enemies. This perspective underscores the Turkish regime’s inclination towards what appears to be an ethnic cleansing agenda targeting the entire Kurdish population. The Kurds fear global indifference towards Turkey’s brutality. Turkey’s neglect of ISIS activities has contributed to this group’s strength. Immediate de-escalation is crucial to prioritize the mission of defeating ISIS and ensuring the safety and security of personnel dedicated to this cause. Attacks on Syrian Kurds by Turkey bolster ISIS, other factions, and the Assad regime, while also amplifying Iranian and Russian influences in Syria. Targeting and subjugating Kurds across Iraq, Syria, and Turkey further destabilizes the region and politically weakens it. Only a peace process can solve the problems, but without the Kurd reconciliation in the Middle East peace will not come to pass. The airstrikes in Syria caused another wave of panic and threat among civilians, and also threatened the safety of the U.S. and Coalition forces who work in Syria with Kurdish partners to defeat ISIS and maintain custody of more than ten thousand ISIS detainees. What remains to be said is Turkey’s aggressive actions against Kurdish populations in Syria and Iraq, using drones and airstrikes under the pretext of fighting terrorism. Erdogan’s policies, rooted in nationalism and historical animosity, perpetuated violence and oppression against Kurds both within Turkey and beyond its borders. The international community’s awareness and intervention are crucial to prevent further civilian casualties and ensure the safety and rights of the Kurdish people. __________________________________________________ Diary Marif, is a Canadian Kurdish writer and freelance journalist born in Iraq. He earned a master’s degree in history from Pune University, India, in 2013. Since 2018, Marif has focused on hybrid memoirs, drawing from his experiences as a war child. He has contributed to three book chapters and writes for a range of national and international media outlets, including New Canadian Media, Rabble, Toronto Star, WordCityLit, Washington Institute, The Canadian Encyclopedia, The Markaz Review, DrawMedia, and others. In 2022, he received an Honorable Mention for the Susan Crean Award for Nonfiction

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General Population Census

Draw Media General Population Census ,Scientific research to predict the population of Iraq and analysis of census data from 1884 to 1997   Abstract According to the official data published by the Iraqi Statistical Agency, the census was conducted every 10 years. According to available sources during the Ottoman rule, in 1884 the population of Iraq was 1,400,000 people, but first official census of Iraq was conducted in 1920. Population of Iraq according to this census was (2,849,282) people. The last official census in 1997, excluding the three governorates of the Kurdistan Region (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok), the population of Iraq was 22,046,244 people. Our aim in this study is to is to present a scientific presentation of past censuses conducted in Iraq with predict the population of Iraq for the 2024 census and the population in 2027 and show the effect of culture and time on population growth, based on statistics from 1884 to 1997 using the 'Exponential Trend' model to forecast the Iraq's population forecasted population for 2027 approximately will be 48,960,820 as well as 'impact Culture', which represents population growth by culture, resulted in 138,239 people per million people, and slope, which represents population growth over time, resulted in 16,342 people per million people. Keywords: Iraq, Census, Forecasting  

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APIKUR Welcomes Iraq Budget Law Amendments

 The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) on Thursday expressed optimism over the Iraqi Parliament's proposal to amend Article 12 of the Budget Law, viewing it as a possible path to restarting the Kurdistan Region’s oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP). In a statement, APIKUR member companies praised the proposal, noting that the amendments address long-standing industry requests for favorable commercial terms and secure payment mechanisms for both historical and future exports. APIKUR underscored that these guarantees are crucial for ongoing collaboration and the Region’s economic stability. "We are prepared for constructive discussions with both the Government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government to finalize necessary agreements," APIKUR stated, emphasizing the importance of clarifying certain provisions within the law to facilitate oil exports through the ITP. APIKUR also aligned with statements from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, both of whom have highlighted the mutual economic benefits of resuming exports. APIKUR noted that a timely agreement would bolster revenue flows and strengthen Iraq's energy sector. Restoring oil exports through the ITP is a priority, promising economic gains for both Iraq and Kurdistan as officials work towards resolving essential export framework issues.

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International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists

US, UK, Canada, Netherlands and Germany consulates in Erbil, co-organized a panel discussion on legal protections for press freedom in the IKR as we marked the International Day to End Crimes of Impunity Against Journalists.  The diplomatic envoys supported the full implementation of the IKR press law and access to information law. Mohammed Rauf, editor-in-chief of Darw Media orfanization participated as a panelist. Rauf Discussed the situation of journalism in the Kurdistan Region and the challenges journalists face.

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Erbil security forces expel members of the HDP representation from the city

The security forces of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in Erbil, forced representatives of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) to leave the city and took them to the borders of Sulaymaniyah.  Hikmet Hatip, Aydın Yalvaç, Sıtkı Vakar and Nasır Yağız, spokespersons and members of HDP's Kurdistan Region Representative Office in Erbil were forcibly taken out of the city by the security forces of the KDP.  The party members were transported in two separate vehicles under heavy guard.

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DNO: More than 84,000 barrels of oil are produced daily in the Kurdistan Region

DNO, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, reported a 24 percent increase in revenue to USD 170 million in the third quarter of 2024, with operating profit also higher at USD 31 million, up from an operating loss of USD 3 million in the previous quarter. Third quarter net production averaged 77,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), to which Kurdistan contributed 63,200 boepd, North Sea 11,200 boepd and West Africa 2,800 boepd. Kurdistan production was up and sold at higher prices in the local market with payments received in advance to the Company’s international bank accounts. North Sea production was down due to maintenance, primarily at Arran and Norne fields. During the quarter, the Company completed the second successful appraisal well on the 2023 Heisenberg discovery. Heisenberg is one of eight discoveries DNO has made in the exploration hotspot close to the Troll and Gjøa hubs offshore Norway since 2021. A final investment decision is expected by yearend 2025 for the first of these finds to be developed, with concept selection for other discoveries also expected at about the same time. In Kurdistan, DNO continued to deliver strong production. At the Tawke license (DNO 75 percent and operator), three wells that were drilled but not completed due to the closure of the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline last year were brought onstream midyear 2024 to meet demand from local traders. These new wells, together with well interventions such as workovers, helped increase gross production by six percent to 84,200 boepd in the third quarter. On its other operated license in Kurdistan, Baeshiqa (DNO 64 percent and operator), the Company is reviewing results of well testing programs and considering next steps. DNO exited the third quarter with cash deposits of USD 919 million and net cash of USD 134 million, essentially unchanged from the second quarter. Given the continuing strength of the balance sheet, the Board of Directors has authorized a dividend payment of NOK 0.3125 per share in November, maintaining quarterly distributions at the level of last quarter’s payout.

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Seats of the parties in the sixth session of the Kurdistan Parliament

Parties Seats KDP 39 PUK 23 New Generations 15 KIU 7 Justic Group 4 Halwest 3 People’s Front 2 Coalition 1 Change Movement 1 Total 95

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Votes of the parties in the sixth session of the Kurdistan Parliament election

Parties 2024 Election KDP 812,794 PUK 409,548 New Generations 292,032 KIU 117,444 Justic Group 64,864 Halwest 56,008 People’s Front 33,461 Coalition 13,226 Change Movement 11,636

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The Consul General of China in Erbil visited Draw Media

The issue of the sixth session of the Kurdistan parliamentary elections and the election campaign was discussed with the presentation of the results of several polls and predictions for the votes and seats by Draw Media organization.  Mr. Liu Jun, the Consul General of the People's Republic of China in Erbil and Chen Guojing, Head of Political Department of the Chinese Consulate visited Draw Media to discuss the issue of the sixth session of the Kurdistan parliamentary elections and the way the election campaign is conducted, with the presentation of some of the results of four surveys conducted by Draw Media. All the statistics and data were presented to the Chinese Consul General with the results of the special surveys that (Draw) has conducted on the issue of elections. And the forecast of votes and seats of the lists in all four constituencies was presented to the Chinese Consul General, based on the (four) surveys prepared by the Draw polling department, and the previous votes of the parties with reading the current situation of the parties, the forecast of votes and seats of the lists was explained.

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Iraqi faces $21 billion loss due to suspension of KRG oil exports: APIKUR

Tens of billions of dollars have been lost since the Kurdistan Region’s oil pipeline exports were halted last year, the oil producing firms said on Saturday, affecting the people and governments of Iraq and the Region. “It has been more than a year since the pipeline has been closed,” Myles Caggins, spokesperson for the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR), told Rudaw in an interview. “And over that time, a whopping, a very big $21 billion has been lost to all people. The companies lose, the Kurdistan Regional Government loses, the people of Iraq lose.” Oil exports from the Kurdistan Region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been halted since March 2023 after a Paris-based arbitration court ruled in favor of Baghdad against Ankara, saying the latter had breached a 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing Erbil to begin independent oil exports in 2014.  “We need to get oil flowing again,” Caggins added. Before the stoppage, Erbil exported around 400,000 barrels per day through Ankara, in addition to some 75,000 barrels of Kirkuk’s oil. The loss in oil revenues, the Kurdistan Region’s main source of income, has worsened the financial situation and left the government unable to pay its public sector without assistance from Baghdad. Erbil and Baghdad have held numerous meetings since the halt but to no avail.  Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani told Bloomberg last month that  “there are ongoing talks with the companies and with brothers in the Kurdistan Region. And we hope to reach a solution based on the legal paths.” He called a solution by the end of the year “possible.”

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Kurdistan parliamentary elections see 6% drop in eligible voters

The upcoming sixth parliamentary election in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is set to see a 6% decline in the number of eligible voters compared to the previous term, despite the inclusion of new-age groups now qualified to vote. The drop has raised concerns over the reasons behind it, with experts pointing to migration, administrative challenges, and potential demographic shifts. Decline Despite Historical Growth Trends According to data from the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq, 2,899,578 voters are eligible to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections, down from 3,085,461 in the previous cycle. The decrease stands in contrast to the 16% increase witnessed in the fifth term compared to the fourth when the number of eligible voters rose to 2,653,743. Historically, the voter base in the Kurdistan Region has been growing steadily. The third parliamentary election saw a 10% increase in eligible voters compared to the second, with numbers rising by 228,037. The second term experienced a modest 1% increase over the first. Migration's Impact Many analysts attribute the current decline to large-scale migration out of the Kurdistan Region in recent years, driven by political and economic instability. "Demographic changes from migration have directly impacted the voter numbers. Many who left the country remain on voter lists, while the new generation eligible to vote has not been properly registered, leading to a gap," Haori Karzan, a local observer, told Shafaq News Agency. Administrative Delays Administrative delays in updating voter records are also contributing to the decline. Arslan Mohammed, an election affairs expert, highlighted issues with removing the names of deceased or emigrated individuals and the slow registration of new voters. "Rural areas and regions with high population mobility face significant challenges in updating voter databases, directly affecting the final voter count," Mohammed explained. The decrease in eligible voters ahead of the sixth term could affect voter turnout and potentially influence the results, posing challenges for political parties relying on their traditional bases. Lack Of Awareness And Registration Another factor contributing to the decrease is the lack of awareness among newly eligible voters about the need for prior registration. "Many young people who reached voting age are not sufficiently aware of the importance of registering for elections. The electoral commission has not effectively communicated this message, especially in remote areas where access to information is limited," Karzan explained. This lack of awareness particularly affects new age groups, reducing the number of actual registered voters. Technical And Administrative Challenges The systems used to register voters and update their information continue to face technical issues that lead to errors or delays in processing data. Political analyst Shukr Ahmad told Shafaq News Agency that "the systems used to update the voter registry face numerous technical problems. In some cases, there are delays in updating the data of new voters, and in others, the systems crash due to data overload. These challenges directly reduce the number of registered voters." Impact Of New Age Groups Interestingly, a significant number of new voters have become eligible to participate in this election, with a large segment of youth reaching the voting age of 18 over recent years. Despite this, the expected increase in voter numbers has not materialized. "The inclusion of new-age groups should have boosted the number of voters, but administrative and technical challenges hindered the registration of many of them. Moreover, some youth are disillusioned with the political and economic situation, leading to a reluctance to register and participate," noted Arslan Mohammed. Political Implications The drop in eligible voters despite the inclusion of new voters could have a direct impact on election results. Political analyst Shukr Ahmad believed that "the political parties may be affected by the distribution of votes due to this decline. Changes in the voter base could lead to some parties losing their traditional shares in certain areas, especially where there is weak voter registration." These figures come as the countdown begins for the sixth parliamentary elections in the Kurdistan Region, where the decline in eligible voters compared to previous terms could significantly influence voter turnout.

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Kurdistan Parliament elections pivotal amid new independent oversight

The upcoming elections for the Kurdistan Region’s parliament are set to be a watershed moment for political forces, as they will be conducted under the supervision of Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) for the first time, offering a fresh opportunity for opposition representation and reshaping the political landscape. Journalist Dilovan Barwari pointed out the significance of this election, noting, "This is an important event for all political entities, especially for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), as it will be overseen by IHEC, a body not part of the Kurdish political fabric." Previous elections faced criticism, particularly from opposition groups, over allegations of bias by the Kurdistan Region's electoral commission. Barwari, in a statement to Shafaq News, anticipated a close race between the KDP and PUK, with neither expected to secure a decisive majority. “The gap between the leading parties will be narrower than in previous elections,” he said, adding that the results will realistically reflect each party’s strength. New Players Enter the Scene Haifa Majid, head of the Shukh Organization (Arabic: شوخ) for Women’s Development, believed the election dynamics would shift with the participation of new political entities and independent candidates. “These elections will see increased competition and participation due to new political movements and independents,” Majid told Shafaq News. The ruling KDP and PUK, she said, are fielding numerous candidates to maximize their vote share, while opposition parties are being more selective in their choices to boost individual chances. Al-Sulaymaniyah remains a critical battleground, despite Erbil being the capital, Majid explained. “Al-Sulaymaniyah has long been a hub for opposition movements like Gorran and New Generation, and it’s expected to see fierce competition,” she added, highlighting the emergence of two new movements, "Mawqif" and "Jabhat Al-Shaab," alongside notable independent figures. Majid also noted that while the Kurdistan Islamic Union remains competitive in areas like Halabja and Duhok, smaller parties like Gorran have lost ground in recent years, and their influence in this election is expected to diminish. "The days of a single party dominating the Kurdistan Parliament are over," she said, noting that many new voters are young, unemployed, or recent graduates, who have growing demands that traditional parties struggle to meet. Opposition Seeks Gains Former independent MP Abu Bakr Hildini viewed the elections as an opportunity for opposition parties to make substantial gains. "IHEC’s oversight ensures a fair process, providing a chance for the people of Kurdistan to cast their votes freely," Hildini told Shafaq News, predicting that opposition parties could secure between 40 and 50 seats in the 100-seat parliament. Election Integrity Emphasized According to the IHEC, 136 political parties, alliances, and independent candidates have been approved to participate in the elections, with a total of 1,191 candidates, including 823 men and 368 women. Five seats are reserved for minorities, including Turkmen and Christians. Over 2.8 million voters are eligible to participate in the elections, with around 2.6 million casting votes in the general election and more than 251,000 security personnel participating in a special vote. The IHEC has also established polling stations outside the region for security forces in various governorates including Baghdad, Al-Anbar, and Diyala. IHEC spokesperson Jumana Al-Ghalay stressed that voter confidentiality is guaranteed, and no one can determine who a voter selects. "The vote is secret, and ballots do not include voter names," she said, adding that legal actions would be taken against any attempts at voter intimidation, with penalties including fines and potential imprisonment for violators.

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