The upcoming elections for the Kurdistan Region’s parliament are set to be a watershed moment for political forces, as they will be conducted under the supervision of Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) for the first time, offering a fresh opportunity for opposition representation and reshaping the political landscape.

Journalist Dilovan Barwari pointed out the significance of this election, noting, "This is an important event for all political entities, especially for the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), as it will be overseen by IHEC, a body not part of the Kurdish political fabric." Previous elections faced criticism, particularly from opposition groups, over allegations of bias by the Kurdistan Region's electoral commission.

Barwari, in a statement to Shafaq News, anticipated a close race between the KDP and PUK, with neither expected to secure a decisive majority. “The gap between the leading parties will be narrower than in previous elections,” he said, adding that the results will realistically reflect each party’s strength.

New Players Enter the Scene

Haifa Majid, head of the Shukh Organization (Arabic: شوخ) for Women’s Development, believed the election dynamics would shift with the participation of new political entities and independent candidates. “These elections will see increased competition and participation due to new political movements and independents,” Majid told Shafaq News. The ruling KDP and PUK, she said, are fielding numerous candidates to maximize their vote share, while opposition parties are being more selective in their choices to boost individual chances.

Al-Sulaymaniyah remains a critical battleground, despite Erbil being the capital, Majid explained. “Al-Sulaymaniyah has long been a hub for opposition movements like Gorran and New Generation, and it’s expected to see fierce competition,” she added, highlighting the emergence of two new movements, "Mawqif" and "Jabhat Al-Shaab," alongside notable independent figures.

Majid also noted that while the Kurdistan Islamic Union remains competitive in areas like Halabja and Duhok, smaller parties like Gorran have lost ground in recent years, and their influence in this election is expected to diminish.

"The days of a single party dominating the Kurdistan Parliament are over," she said, noting that many new voters are young, unemployed, or recent graduates, who have growing demands that traditional parties struggle to meet.

Opposition Seeks Gains

Former independent MP Abu Bakr Hildini viewed the elections as an opportunity for opposition parties to make substantial gains. "IHEC’s oversight ensures a fair process, providing a chance for the people of Kurdistan to cast their votes freely," Hildini told Shafaq News, predicting that opposition parties could secure between 40 and 50 seats in the 100-seat parliament.

Election Integrity Emphasized

According to the IHEC, 136 political parties, alliances, and independent candidates have been approved to participate in the elections, with a total of 1,191 candidates, including 823 men and 368 women. Five seats are reserved for minorities, including Turkmen and Christians.

Over 2.8 million voters are eligible to participate in the elections, with around 2.6 million casting votes in the general election and more than 251,000 security personnel participating in a special vote. The IHEC has also established polling stations outside the region for security forces in various governorates including Baghdad, Al-Anbar, and Diyala.

IHEC spokesperson Jumana Al-Ghalay stressed that voter confidentiality is guaranteed, and no one can determine who a voter selects. "The vote is secret, and ballots do not include voter names," she said, adding that legal actions would be taken against any attempts at voter intimidation, with penalties including fines and potential imprisonment for violators.