The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has begun preparations for reconvening parliament and forming the government. The issue of completing the parliamentary quorum has been resolved, but the KDP wants to settle the matter of voting on the presidencies of parliament and government. The Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yekgirtu) will participate in the parliamentary session but will not join the government. The New Generation Movement (Naway Nwê) will attend the parliamentary session, and its participation in the government is likely. The People’s Front will attend the session as well. The PUK, however, currently does not want the 10th cabinet to be formed, nor does it want the KDP to negotiate with other parties to form the government in the way it intends. Still, the KDP is no longer willing to wait for the PUK and will use all available cards.

Dissolution of the Kurdistan Parliament

There has been talk for a while about dissolving the Kurdistan Parliament due to the KDP and PUK’s failure to reach an agreement on forming the government. Meanwhile, the results of the Iraqi parliamentary elections have shifted votes toward the KDP and several other smaller parties. If new elections are held in the Kurdistan Region, the seat distribution would likely change—especially benefiting the KDP. Based on Iraq’s election results, the KDP, which currently holds 39 seats in the Kurdistan Parliament, could rise to around 45–47 seats, while the PUK and New Generation would likely lose seats.

More than 400 days have passed since the Kurdistan parliamentary elections were annulled, and the presidency of the parliament has not been elected.

Legal Bases for Dissolving the Parliament

According to Article 10(4) of the amended Presidency Law of the Kurdistan Region (No. 1 of 2005), the Kurdistan Parliament may be dissolved in the following cases:

1. If more than half of its members resign.

2. If the legal quorum is not achieved within 45 days after being called to session by the President of the Region.

3. If parliament fails to grant confidence to three consecutive cabinet formations.

4. If the electoral system changes while less than six months remain of the parliament’s term.

Even though dissolving the parliament is legally possible through a presidential decree, political realities suggest that the KDP’s push for dissolution might simply be a pressure card to force other parties to complete the quorum. Holding new elections would take more than six months, and the electoral commission’s mandate expires next January. Under current conditions, it is highly unlikely that elections will be held soon. All indicators point instead toward reconvening parliament, electing the parliamentary presidencies, electing the president of the region, and then forming the government.

What Happens Next?

Masoud Barzani, President of the KDP, has repeatedly stated that the pre-election political arrangements with the PUK are no longer valid after the elections. This means the positions previously agreed upon will not be granted to the PUK. The PUK does not accept this, so the KDP is testing alternative paths to forming the government.

The KDP now wants parliament to reconvene at any cost and to elect the parliamentary presidencies. According to independent sources:

• The National Stance (Halwesti Nishtimani) has decided not to join the new cabinet and will remain in opposition but will participate in the Iraqi government.

• The Kurdistan Islamic Union (Yekgirtu) will not join the cabinet but will participate in the parliamentary session, enabling the quorum for parliamentary meetings—but not for electing the presidencies.

• The Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal) may participate in the parliamentary session (but this is not officially confirmed).

• The People’s Front will attend the parliamentary session.

• The New Generation has been approached by the KDP several times and appears willing to join the cabinet if the issue of Shaswar Abdulwahid’s imprisonment is addressed. New Generation wants to turn its participation into leverage against the PUK to secure Shaswar’s release.

If New Generation joins the government, this would recreate the 2019 cabinet scenario in which the KDP and the Gorran Movement formed a coalition first, and the PUK joined later. With New Generation’s participation, the quorum for electing the parliamentary presidencies would be completed, solving the KDP’s main problem.

Even if New Generation refuses to join the cabinet, its attendance at the parliamentary session—because it has a candidate for parliament’s presidency—ensures a quorum for the session itself, though not for electing the presidencies (which requires 51 votes).

KDP’s Quorum Strategy

The KDP wants at least 51 votes in the hall to elect the parliamentary presidencies. Their current potential quorum breakdown:

• KDP: 39 seats

• New Generation: 15 seats

• Yekgirtu: 7 seats

• People’s Front: 1 seat

• Independents: 3 seats
  Total: 65 MPs

This exceeds the 50+1 quorum needed for holding the session.

But for electing the parliament speaker, deputy speaker, and secretary, 51 votes are needed. Without agreement with one of the main blocs, the KDP cannot reach this number.

If the KDP and New Generation reach an agreement:

• KDP: 39

• New Generation: 15

• Independents: 3
  Total: 57 votes

This is more than enough to elect the parliamentary presidencies and later the president of the region and the prime minister.

Election of the President of the Region

After electing the parliamentary presidencies, the next step is to elect the President of the Kurdistan Region.

According to the amended 2019 Presidency Law:

• Parliament elects the President.

• Voting must begin within 30 days after electing the parliamentary presidencies.

• The President is elected by an open vote, requiring 50+1 votes (51 MPs).

If no candidate meets this threshold, the election proceeds to a second round, where only a simple majority is needed (unless there is only one candidate).

Election of the Prime Minister

After electing the President:

1. Parliament grants confidence to the nominee for Prime Minister.

2. The President tasks the nominee with forming the cabinet within 30 days.

3. Parliament must approve the cabinet with 51 votes.

The entire process of electing the presidencies and forming the cabinet will be complicated, but the KDP has clearly decided to no longer wait for the PUK. The KDP now pursues two simultaneous tracks:

1. Forming the new Kurdistan Regional Government.

2. Negotiating for the new federal government in Baghdad.

If the KDP and PUK enter both negotiation tracks simultaneously, conflicts may deepen. But if the positions in Erbil and Baghdad are bundled together, reaching a deal may become easier—especially since both parties aspire to the Kurdish share of the Iraqi presidency, which could lead to a renewed two-candidate standoff in Baghdad similar to previous years.