In Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan, regional elections are being repeatedly postponed, institutions weakened and structures are becoming more autocratic

By Birgit Svensson

Super election year 2024: half the world is going to the polls. India, the world's most populous nation, has voted, elections are taking place in Algeria and Tunisia, just as in Britain, France, Austria and the entire European Union. The list is a long one. Elections are a talking point everywhere, with discussions on fairness and credibility, fraud and manipulation.

It is quite a different story in the Kurdish region of Iraq, where elections are not on the cards and those responsible are doing everything to ensure it stays that way. The Kurdish regional government's mandate ran out two years ago, but still elections are being repeatedly put off. Like now. Just a month before the last scheduled election date on 10 June, the ballot was cancelled yet again. "Who needs elections here," joked a senior member of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) in Erbil. "Elections, what are they?" jeered students at the University of Kurdistan Hewler (KUH) in the capital of the Autonomous Region Kurdistan.

"Elections in Kurdistan are flawed," says Thomas Schmidinger, Associate Professor at the KUH, summarising the matter. The Austrian lectures in politics and international relations at the university and has lived in Iraqi Kurdistan for years. The autonomous parliament has no say, he adds. "Two dynasties govern here." In the provinces of Erbil and Dohuk the Barzani clan holds power, in Sulaymaniyah it is the Talabanis. The two families work everything out between themselves, says Schmidinger.

Kurdistan in crisis

Newly emerging opposition parties threaten to disrupt this power structure, he says. The two families are afraid of such developments. Since October 2022, when the first regular election date was set, the parties have been locked in incessant conflict. Sometimes one party doesn't want to take part in the elections, sometimes it is the other. Institutional squabbles such as the recent row over the electoral commission serve as a pretext for the postponements.

Iraqi Kurdistan, the three autonomous provinces in the northeast of Iraq, the showcase project for democracy and economic growth, is mired in crisis. Things have been going downhill since 2013 with no progress for two years. While the rest of Iraq is currently making robust progress, Kurdistan continues on its downward trajectory.

Officials say it is all the fault of the IS terror militia, the pandemic and Baghdad. Politicians in the Iraqi capital aren't well-disposed towards the Kurds, they say. Some even claim a deep enmity between Baghdad and Erbil. Akin to the era of Saddam Hussein, who fought the Kurds because they repeatedly rose up against him.

But now, there's a new narrative doing the rounds concerning who or what might be responsible for Kurdistan's misery: ask around in Erbil, it is neighbouring Iran that's to blame for everything. This theory claims Iran wants to weaken the Kurds, in particular the KDP, which is dominated by the Barzani clan.

There's a reason why the Kurds' number one enemy is no longer in Baghdad, but Tehran. Since the Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent outbreak of the Gaza war in October, there have been increasingly frequent missile and done attacks on targets in Iraqi Kurdistan. The airport in Erbil has already been attacked several times, the homes of influential Kurds near Erbil were bombed and destroyed, civilians killed. Iran is firing on its neighbour.

But this view doesn't go far enough to explain the problem. Dlawer Ala'Aldeen takes a deeper dive when analysing the Kurds' precarious situation. For the director of the renowned think tank MERI (Middle East Research Institute) and former higher education minister for the Kurdish regional government (KRG), the current crisis is inherent in the system. Central government in Baghdad is unwilling to push ahead with decentralisation as stated in constitution and demanded by the Kurds, he says. The federalism enshrined as Iraq's political system only exists on paper. This is also evident from the example of the provinces of Basra and Anbar, also striving for autonomous status like the Kurds, something vehemently rejected by Baghdad.

Western partners remain silent

This is why elections in Kurdistan aren't the same as they are elsewhere. Nevertheless, Ala'Aldeen continues, western partners with whom the Kurds feel an alliance, regard elections to the regional parliament as a domestic Iraqi matter and aren't doing enough to insist that they be carried out. If American, British, French and even German heads of state shake hands in Erbil and ignore Baghdad, this isn't fostering greater understanding but rather confirming that the Kurds – and above all the Barzani-dominated KDP – can do whatever they want, says Ala'Aldeen.

This was how the KDP grew to be Kurdistan's most powerful party. Whereas the Talabani clan's PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) seeks a productive relationship with Baghdad, this is rejected by the KDP in Erbil. "In actual fact what we've got is a transitional government, as the legislative period has expired, but everyone still accepts it. So why hold elections if the legitimacy's already there?" asks Ala'Aldeen. 

This although attempts to develop democratic structures here were very promising, making Kurdistan a showcase region in Iraq. While terror and civil war raged in the rest of the country, the three autonomous provinces in the northeast flourished. Investment waves came thick and fast, the region prospered.

When IS was defeated in 2017, the Kurdish region's president at the time Masoud Barzani initiated a referendum on an independent Kurdistan. An overwhelming majority of Kurds voted in favour. Trouble was, Barzani hadn't asked his neighbours or other nations what they thought. In the end, even the United States, the Kurds' closest ally, rejected the idea of a separate Kurdish state ceded from Baghdad.

Tensions between the two major Kurdish parties, the KDP and PUK, worsened following regional elections in 2018. Masoud Barzani stepped down to make way for his son and nephew, who have since shared leadership of the KRG and become increasingly authoritarian. Corruption and nepotism spread unchecked, journalists were threatened and even killed if they reported on the machinations of the Barzani clan, students were forced to join the party, public sector wages often went unpaid for months.  

When, in March 2023, a court in Paris ruled that contracts concluded by the Autonomous Region of Kurdistan bypassing Baghdad were illegal and imposed penalties, Kurdistan was plunged into the most serious crisis since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in the year 2003. The pipeline that transported Kurdish oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan for onward shipping has been closed ever since. Kurdistan can no longer export its oil.

"This must change," says Hoshyar Zebari, long-time Iraqi foreign minister and now a member of the KDP's Central Committee. "We must hold the elections to gain new legitimacy and regain credibility," he says. He is sure that the ballot will take place this year. So, the party with the word democracy in its name wants to be democratic once again? There are many Kurds who doubt that.