Amid rising criticism of the Gaza war from a series of actors in Baghdad, Iraqi Kurdistan finds itself in an awkward position. Shiite armed groups in Iraq have warned that they will target US forces if Washington directly intervenes in Gaza or if Israel “expands the battlefield.” Against this backdrop, a series of attacks on American bases have already been reported. Given that Iraqi Kurdistan hosts two such bases—and mindful of Erbil’s own disputes with Shiite actors—domestic contentions in Iraq could be accentuated by the wider regional context.

On Oct. 18 and again on Oct. 20, an entity referring to itself as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” reportedly attempted drone attacks on Harir Air Base, located 70 km (44 miles) outside Erbil. Both strikes failed to do any damage. The same shadowy group on Oct. 21 claimed that drones targeted the “American occupation’s base near Erbil International Airport.” It is unclear if the latter refers to Harir.

• Harir base, also known as Bashur, is believed to host US troops. It is located in a rural valley, but past attacks on the base have put civilian populations at risk.
   
• No incidents have been confirmed at the larger Coalition military base next to Erbil International Airport. Located on the outskirts of a major urban center, it has in the past been targeted in rocket attacks claimed by other shadowy armed groups.
   
• The two recent incidents at Harir are part of a larger set of attacks on US bases in Iraq’s western Anbar Governorate and neighboring Syria. A US Navy destroyer in the Red Sea also recently intercepted drones and missiles fired from Yemen, possibly with southern Israel as the target...Continue reading.