Neaz Mustafa, Draw Media
Repeating the 2018 scenario is not possible. Among the party and outside, Barham Salih will not have strong support anymore. After the referendum, he became the president. Although, Kurdistan Democratic Party KDP (his opponent) is strong now and returns to the political game in Bagdad strongly.
His party members are furious with him. They say he was aware of the election frauds, but he did nothing to inform his party members.

The president between KDP and PUK

KDP, the fourth-biggest winner of the Iraqi election, after projecting the preliminary results, KDP focuses on three different suggestions regarding the president position.

First, the presidency position is the portion of Kurds, and it is not yet clear for whom it will be. That is a clear message for PUK, to not be confident about getting the position again.

Second, it’s been for a few days, KDP leaders are focusing on obtaining the Kirkuk governor without mentioning the presidency. KDP wants to secure the Kirkuk governor position for themselves by giving the presidency to the PUK.

Third, by putting pressure on PUK (for the presidency position), KDP tries to drive PUK to renew the strategic agreement or sign a new accord between them. Especially after the current changes following 8 June inside PUK, which is to KDP benefit.

The struggle for the presidency was significant because it appeared to break a tacit accord between the KDP and PUK, under which the former holds the Iraqi Kurdish presidency and the latter the Iraqi national presidency. However, the KDP insisted its candidate be put forward because it had more seats in the federal parliament.

Will the 2018 Scenario be Repeated?

Even though the strategic agreement between KDP and PUK for dividing the senior positions in the local and central government is already dead yet, PUK insists that the Iraqi presidency is their portion.
The Iraqi presidency has long been controlled by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party.
Out of agreement with KDP and the other Kurdish parties, PUK settled the presidency office to its advantage in 2018.

In the current situation, Could PUK could carry out the same action?

The changes that happened since 2018 show that PUK could not repeat the same scenario, and Barham Salih does not have that big chance waiting for him.
Barham Salih had a strong ability to play with the conflicting sides, especially USA and Iran. His games are almost clear for both sides of the poles now. Especially, after that his cell phone was observed by an Israelian Program. Also, there was a rumor that his cell phone was stolen during a visit to Qatar. Allegedly, these events reveal Barham Salih's secret and private relations.  

Barham Salih’s Chance

Barham Salih still insists on remaining on his chair for the second term. A chair that following the fall of Saddam Husain, only Jalal Talabani a historical leader of PUK, could stay on it for two terms.
According to the Draw Media information, among members of the PUK Political Bureau and Leadership Committee, there is dissatisfaction against Barham Salih. They believe Barham Salih with Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, Prime minister, and Mohamed Al-Halbousi Speaker of the Council of Representatives of Iraq, already had information regarding the election fraud tactics, but he did not inform his party members about it.
On the other side, depending on the Draw Media knowledge, Iran has a decisive role in determining the Iraqi high-ranked positions, yet they support Barham Salih to retake the position, and also, they have no problem with an alternative if PUK and KDP agree on that.

The presidency Candidates
According to Draw Media information, the Iranian told KDP, even though they have won more seats still, the Iraqi presidency is decided for PUK, but they can have their comment on PUK candidates.
After receiving the message from Iran, KDP is not likely to fight for the presidency anymore, yet they will not give up easily without letting PUK pay the price.
Determining the Kirkuk governor to their advantage to let Masrur Barzani cabinet have full authority on the entire Kurdish territory from all over Kurdistan.