If political parties can preserve the votes they obtained in the most recent elections (the Kurdistan parliamentary elections), at the level of the Duhok Governorate constituency, then, according to the open-list system, three political forces will be able to secure seats in the Iraqi Council of Representatives. These are:

1. Kurdistan Democratic Party (9 seats).

2. New Generation (1 seat).

3. Kurdistan Islamic Union (1 seat).

In the case of an alliance of all forces and personalities outside of KDP and PUK, the result does not change:

1. Kurdistan Democratic Party (9 seats).

2. Alliance of forces and personalities outside of KDP and PUK (2 seats).

It has been decided that on 11 October 2025, the sixth round of elections for the Iraqi Council of Representatives will be held, in accordance with Law No. (4) of 2023, the third amendment to Law No. (12) of 2018 concerning elections for the Council of Representatives and Provincial, District, and Sub-district Councils.

Article (7) of the law stipulates that Article (12) is amended as follows: valid votes of each list shall be divided by the numbers (1.7, 3, 5, 7, 9, etc.) to determine the number of seats won by each constituency, based on the Modified Sainte-Laguë method.

The Sainte-Laguë method was historically used first in Norway and Sweden in 1951, and in Iraq, it was tested in the provincial council elections on 20 April 2012. In this method, the number of votes for each political entity is divided by odd numbers (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, …etc.).

The difference between the standard Sainte-Laguë and the Modified Sainte-Laguë is that instead of dividing by (1), the votes are divided by a number greater than one, such as (1.4), (1.6), or (1.7). For example, in the 2014 Iraqi parliamentary elections, the divisor was (1.6), while in the upcoming elections, it has been set at (1.7).

This means that in the sixth round of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, to convert valid votes into seats, first the votes of each political entity must be divided by (1.7), then subsequently by (3, 5, 7, 9, 11 …etc.).

Previously, Iraq was divided into 83 constituencies for the fifth parliamentary elections. However, according to the latest amendment, each governorate is now a single constituency.

Votes and Party Strength in Duhok Governorate

According to Law No. (4) of 2023 (the third amendment to Law No. (12) of 2018), Duhok Governorate constitutes one electoral constituency, with 11 seats allocated in the Iraqi Council of Representatives.

Based on the most recent results of the Kurdistan parliamentary elections (20/10/2024), the following valid votes were recorded within the administrative boundaries of Duhok Governorate (total valid votes: 548,015):

• Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP): 402,157 votes (73%).

• New Generation: 46,631 votes (9%).

• Kurdistan Islamic Union: 42,732 votes (8%).

• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): 28,577 votes (5%).

• Rênas Movement: 8,438 votes (2%).

• Justice Group: 3,677 votes (1%).

• People’s Front: 2,605 votes (<1%).

• Kurdistan Regional Alliance: 851 votes (~0.2%).

• Gorran Movement: 248 votes (~0%).

• Independents, individuals, and other lists: 12,099 votes (2%).

Seat Allocation Forecast for Duhok Governorate

If political parties can preserve their vote share from the last elections, then, following the Modified Sainte-Laguë system, the seat distribution in the 11-seat Duhok constituency will be:

1. Kurdistan Democratic Party (9 seats).

2. New Generation (1 seat).

3. Kurdistan Islamic Union (1 seat).

However, in the event of an alliance of forces outside of the KDP and PUK, the results will remain the same, as shown in the second table:

1. Kurdistan Democratic Party (9 seats).

2. Alliance of external forces (2 seats).