In a flurry of coordinated geopolitical maneuvers, the United States has lifted key sanctions on Syria while positioning itself as the broker in a historic normalization process between Syria and Israel. At the same time, Turkey’s Erdogan is getting a trade-off, with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) vowing to disband, ending a decades-long insurgency. Not exactly peace, it’s a solid and very layered quid pro quo in a complicated regional alignment game.

It was a pretty tidy sequence of events. The PKK’s sudden dissolution hands Erdogan a massive domestic and strategic win, clearing the way for Turkey to deepen its presence in northern Syria without the political and military liability of Kurdish resistance. (Erdogan needs the win right now to distract from his jailing of his key political rival). Washington gets to sell the narrative of peace-building while loosening Assad’s isolation just enough to open reconstruction and energy channels (which will bear the corporate footprint of Turkey and the U.S.). Israel is quietly cooperating, likely in exchange for security guarantees and a bigger strategic say in Syria’s post-war infrastructure buildout.

Energy is at the center of the big reordering. Turkish companies (TPAO and Botas) will be eyeing gas fields and pipeline routes that were previously inaccessible thanks to a Kurdish buffer. With the PKK out of the way, those corridors are suddenly in play. Israeli infrastructure and defense firms could also find themselves beneficiaries of any new commercial framework with Syria. For U.S. firms, the easing of sanctions opens the door to re-enter the Syrian market under the cover of energy-linked projects. The Pentagon gets stability, Ankara gets access, Tel Aviv gets quiet borders—and American companies get a seat at the table. That’s the intention, at least. (And the UAE is in there, as well, with an $800M deal to develop Syria’s port at Tartous).

And as for the PKK? It didn’t just dissolve out of goodwill—it’s getting something in return, even if that is not yet clear. While “integration” and “amnesty” are the stated incentives of the deal, there will be more to it, and we will be looking for clues as to this particular quid pro quo.

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