Draw Media

Scenarios for the future of the Kurdistan region

Scenarios for the future of the Kurdistan region

2024-05-25 10:20:19


It is difficult for the PUK and KDP to go to the elections without clarity and guaranteeing high positions.

KDP wants guarantees that Masrour Barzani will take over the presidency of the tenth cabinet without headaches. The PUK wants to secure a high post for Gubad Talabani in return of giving Masrour Barzani the position.
Nechirvan Barzani may finally leave the post of the Kurdistan Region president to Gubad Talabani, by assuming the Iraqi presidency.
A new date for the elections will be set in the next few days, expected to be in September or October. The conflict between the two forces is to determine the political map after the elections, several scenarios are being discussed.
Two scenarios are currently being discussed for the post-election period:

First Scenario:
PUK and KDP to go to elections without prior agreement on distribution of senior posts, and Then, as in previous rounds, the KDP will start negotiations to form a government.
If the PUK enters the government negotiations easily, the PUK and KDP will share the posts together and form the government.

If the PUK would not enters the government negotiations easily, the KDP will offer a number of ministries to several other parties and make them partners to form a 50+1 government (As happened in the previous round, the PUK did not enter the government at first, so KDP offered a number of ministers to the Gorran Movement and left the PUK ministerial positions and seats to the PUK, then the PUK was forced to enter the government).


Second Scenario:
 The PUK and KDP are making a preliminary agreement on the future of governance and the distribution of posts in the region.
Now the PUK is more ambitious and wants to share the highest positions in the region with the KDP, such as (Kurdistan President, Prime Minister, Speaker of Parliament, President of the Judiciary).

بابه‌تی په‌یوه‌ندیدار
مافی به‌رهه‌مه‌كان پارێزراوه‌ بۆ دره‌و
Developed by Smarthand