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Final results of Iraq’s provincial council elections announced

Four Iraqi coalitions got the largest number of seats in provincial polls earlier this month, according to national election officials.  The Independent High Electoral Commission announced late Thursday the final results of the provincial council elections, the first ones held in a decade, official Iraqi news agency INA reported. The Nabni coalition, led by Hadi Al-Amiri, won 43 out of 275 seats, followed by the State of Law coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, with 35, the National State Forces coalition, led by Ammar al-Hakim, with 24, and the National Progress coalition, led by former parliament speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi, with 21. The elections were boycotted by the Sadrist Shiite opposition movement. The commission said there were no complaints affecting the election results, adding that the final results have a window of appeal. Elections took place in 15 out of 18 governorates, excluding three in Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government area. Over 5,900 candidates from various parties and alliances competed to win 275 posts. Over 6 million out of 16 million voters took in the local elections. The governorate councils in Iraq serve as the legislative and supervisory authority in each province. These elected councils have the right to issue local legislation, allowing them to manage their affairs according to the principle of administrative decentralization, without conflicting with the Constitution and federal laws falling under the exclusive jurisdiction of the authorities. The electoral term for the governorate councils is 4 years.  

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Iraq signs $300million Loan Agreement with Japan

Iraq inked a deal on Sunday for a $300 million loan from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to fund a project aimed at enhancing water supplies in the city of Samawah, located in al-Muthanna Governorate in the south of the country. Minister of Finance, Tayf Samy, affirmed to Shafaq News Agency, "A loan agreement was signed for the project to improve water supply in Samawah, valued at over 45 billion yen, which roughly equals $300 million, with the goal of providing the province's residents with potable water." The minister added, "the project will contribute to increasing the quantity of potable water in the province and the efficient utilization of water resources by establishing water treatment and desalination plants in Samawah, in addition to installing water pipelines from the main station to sub-pumping stations." The project aims to provide potable water to the people of Samawah by establishing the first large-scale water treatment plant in the province. Upon completion, the project is expected to supply local residents with water for more than 12 hours daily. Japan has extended loans through JICA for the construction of approximately 30 significant infrastructure projects in Iraq thus far. There are five proposed projects, including a loan project in two phases for the year 2024, part of Japan's ongoing support for Iraq's infrastructure development.

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Iraq scrambles to contain fighting between US troops and Iran-backed groups, fearing Gaza spillover

Associated Press Dozens of attacks on U.S. military facilities by Iran-backed factions in Iraq over the past two months as the Israel-Hamas war has raged have forced Baghdad into a balancing act that’s becoming more difficult by the day. A rocket attack on the sprawling U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Friday marked a further escalation as Iraqi officials scramble to contain the ripple effects of the latest Middle East war. Iran holds considerable sway in Iraq and a coalition of Iran-backed groups brought Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to power in October 2022. At the same time, there are some 2,000 U.S. troops in Iraq under an agreement with Baghdad, mainly to counter the militant Islamic State group. What to know Since the war erupted on Oct. 7, at least 92 attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria have been claimed by an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militants. A recent attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad marked a further escalation as Iraqi officials scramble to contain the ripple effects of the Israel-Hamas war. In response to the spike in attacks, the Biden administration has tried to balance efforts to deter the militants without triggering a broader Middle East conflict. Baghdad also relies heavily on Washington’s sanctions waivers to buy electricity from Iran, and since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraq’s foreign currency reserves have been housed at the U.S. Federal Reserve, giving the Americans significant control over Iraq’s supply of dollars. Al-Sudani’s predecessors also had to walk a delicate line between Tehran and Washington, but the Israel-Hamas war has considerably upped the stakes. Since the war erupted on Oct. 7, at least 92 attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria have been claimed by an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militants dubbed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The militants say their attacks are in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel and its military presence in Iraq and Syria. Al-Sudani has condemned the attacks and U.S. counter-strikes as a violation of his country’s sovereignty. He has also ordered authorities to pursue militants involved in the attacks, most of which caused no injuries and only minor damage. His office declined further comment. Washington has sent messages that its patience is wearing thin. After the embassy attack, the Pentagon said that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “made clear (to al-Sudani) that attacks against U.S. forces must stop.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told al-Sudani that Washington expects Iraqi officials to take more action to prevent such attacks, and believes they have the capability to do so, a U.S. official told The Associated Press. During a recent trip to the region, CIA Director William Burns warned al-Sudani of “harsh consequences” if Iraq doesn’t act to stop the attacks, an Iraqi official said. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity in line with briefing regulations. In a call with the Iraqi premier earlier this month, Blinken said that Americans would take matters into their own hands, arguing that Baghdad had not done enough to pursue the perpetrators, according to two Iraqi officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. Two days later, a U.S. strike on a drone launch site near the Iraqi city of Kirkuk killed five militants. The U.S. and much of the international community have scrambled to prevent the war in the besieged Gaza Strip from expanding across the region. Analyst Renad Mansour said he believes Iran is making sure the attacks remain below a threshold that would provoke a major U.S. response. “Both Iran and Iraq have maintained thus far a clear line that, at the moment, Iraq cannot turn into a playground that could destabilize the Sudani government,” said Mansour, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank. He said that’s partially due to Iraq’s role of passing messages between Washington and Tehran. Sometimes the messenger is al-Sudani. In early November, Blinken met with al-Sudani in Baghdad a day before the Iraqi prime minister was set to visit Tehran. Al-Sudani had won a specific promise from the militias that no attacks would be launched during Blinken’s visit, according to an Iraqi official and a member of the Kataib Hezbollah militia. Following the visit, al-Sudani carried a message from Blinken to Iran to restrain the militias. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. A week after the Iraqi premier’s diplomatic efforts, the United States extended Iraq’s sanctions waiver by four months to purchase Iranian electricity. Iran-hawks in Washington criticized the move, saying it would shore up revenue for Tehran while its proxies are at war with Israel. Mansour says Washington has used the sanctions waiver as “one of its cards” in economy-centered efforts to pressure Iran and Iraq. Unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, seen as Iran’s most powerful proxy in the region, Iraq’s militias have so far only played a limited role in the conflict. For now, only small number of militiamen from Iraq are in southern Lebanon, near Israel’s northern border, said the official from the Kataib Hezbollah group. He said the Iraqis are working on “battle management” alongside Hezbollah and representatives of Hamas, the militant group that has ruled Gaza for 16 years and is currently battling Israel. He said Iran-backed groups in Iraq don’t want the conflict to spread across the region, but are prepared to respond with force to any attacks. Should Iran and allies choose to escalate, al-Sudani’s government will likely be unable to rein them in or prevent consequences on Iraqi soil, said Iyad al-Anbar, a political science professor at Baghdad University. “And this is why all al-Sudani has been able to do is try to bring some calm through statements,” said al-Anbar.  

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Pentagon: Hezbollah and Nujaba are two terrorist organizations responsible for most of the attacks

Shafaq News/ U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin condemned the attacks on his country's embassy in Baghdad and singled out Iran-aligned armed groups Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba for the recent targetting of U.S. personnel. Austin's remarks came during a call with Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani earlier today, Sunday. "The United States reserves the right to respond decisively against those groups," Austin told al-Sudani, according to a Pentagon statement summarizing the call. He welcomed Prime Minister al-Sudani's statement this morning that rightly condemned the attack as "acts of terrorism" that "endanger Iraq's internal security." Secretary Austin underscored that attacks by Iran-backed militias undermine the sovereignty and stability of Iraq, risk the safety of Iraqi civilians, and set back the campaign to defeat ISIS. They discussed the U.S.-Iraq Higher Military Commission, which was agreed by the two governments during the U.S.-Iraq Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue in August 2023. The statement emphasized that it is a "consultative mechanism" for the transition of the Coalition. "However, the Secretary made clear that attacks against U.S. forces must stop." Early on Friday, nearly seven mortar rounds landed in the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad. The attack marked the first time it had been fired on in more than a year, apparently widening the range of targets. No group claimed responsibility, but previous attacks against U.S. forces have been carried out by Iran-aligned groups operating under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria were also targeted with rockets and drones at least five more times on Friday; three times at separate bases in Syria, and twice at the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad, a different U.S. defense official said. The attacks were the most recorded against U.S. forces in the region in a single day since mid-October, when Iran-aligned militias started targeting U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria over Washington's backing of Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Explosions were heard near the embassy, in the centre of Baghdad, at about 4 a.m. on Friday. Sirens calling on people to take cover were activated. State media said the attack damaged the headquarters of an Iraqi security agency.   U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked at least 84 times since Oct. 17. The U.S. has responded with a series of strikes that have killed at least 15 militants in Iraq and up to seven in Syria. "The many Iran-aligned militias that operate freely in Iraq threaten the security and stability of Iraq, our personnel, and our partners in the region," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement. "The Iraqi government has repeatedly committed to protect diplomatic missions as well as U.S. military personnel, who are present in the country at Iraq’s invitation. This is non-negotiable, as is our right to self-defense," Miller added. The attacks pose a challenge for al-Sudani, who has pledged to protect foreign missions and capitalize on fragile stability to focus on the economy and court foreign investment, including from the United States. Al-Sudani directed security agencies to pursue the perpetrators, describing them as "unruly, lawless groups that do not in any way represent the will of the Iraqi people," a statement from his office said. He also said that undermining Iraq's stability, reputation and targeting places Iraq has committed to protect were acts of terrorism. The head of militia Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, one of the main factions that has been targeting U.S. forces in the region, said in a social media post that he rejected "stopping or easing operations" while "Zionist crimes continue in Gaza." Aside from its diplomatic staff in Iraq, the United States has about 2,500 troops in the country on a mission it says aims to advise and assist local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, which in 2014 seized large swathes of both Iraq and Syria before being defeated. Houthis in Yemen have been firing at Israel and ships in the Red Sea in a campaign they say aims to support the Palestinians. U.S. warships have shot down several of their projectiles.

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US embassy in Baghdad struck with seven mortars as attacks escalate

 (Reuters) - Approximately seven mortar rounds landed in the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad during an attack early on Friday, a U.S. military official told Reuters, in what appeared to be the largest attack of its kind in recent memory. U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria were also targeted with rockets and drones at least five more times on Friday; three times at separate bases in Syria, and twice at the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad, a different U.S. defense official said. The attacks were the most recorded against U.S. forces in the region in a single day since mid-October, when Iran-aligned militias started targeting U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria over Washington's backing of Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in a call with Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, condemned the attacks and singled out Iran-aligned armed groups Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba for the recent targetting of U.S. personnel. "The United States reserves the right to respond decisively against those groups," Austin told Sudani, according to a Pentagon statement summarizing the call. The embassy attack marked the first time it had been fired on in more than a year, apparently widening the range of targets. Dozens of military bases housing U.S. forces have been attacked, increasing fears of a broadening regional conflict. No group claimed responsibility, but previous attacks against U.S. forces have been carried out by Iran-aligned militias operating under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The U.S. military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, left open the possibility that more projectiles were fired at the embassy compound but did not land within it. The U.S. officials said Friday's attacks caused no injuries, and the embassy attack caused very minor damage. Reuters was first to report the number of mortars that hit the embassy compound. Explosions were heard near the embassy, in the centre of Baghdad, at about 4 a.m. (0100 GMT) on Friday. Sirens calling on people to take cover were activated. State media said the attack damaged the headquarters of an Iraqi security agency. Sheikh Ali Damoush, a senior official in the Lebanese group Hezbollah, said in a Friday sermon that attacks by Iran-aligned groups across the Middle East aim to apply pressure for a halt to Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip. He did not refer specifically to Friday's attack. U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked at least 84 times since Oct. 17, the defense official said. The U.S. has responded with a series of strikes that have killed at least 15 militants in Iraq and up to seven in Syria. The State Department called on the Iraqi security forces to immediately investigate and arrest the perpetrators. "The many Iran-aligned militias that operate freely in Iraq threaten the security and stability of Iraq, our personnel, and our partners in the region," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement. "The Iraqi government has repeatedly committed to protect diplomatic missions as well as U.S. military personnel, who are present in the country at Iraq’s invitation. This is non-negotiable, as is our right to self-defense," Miller added. 'ACTS OF TERRORISM' The attacks pose a challenge for Sudani, who has pledged to protect foreign missions and capitalize on fragile stability to focus on the economy and court foreign investment, including from the United States. Sudani directed security agencies to pursue the perpetrators, describing them as "unruly, lawless groups that do not in any way represent the will of the Iraqi people," a statement from his office said. He also said that undermining Iraq's stability, reputation and targeting places Iraq has committed to protect were acts of terrorism. The head of militia Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, one of the main factions that has been targeting U.S. forces in the region, said in a social media post that he rejected "stopping or easing operations" while "Zionist crimes continue in Gaza." Aside from its diplomatic staff in Iraq, the United States has about 2,500 troops in the country on a mission it says aims to advise and assist local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, which in 2014 seized large swathes of both Iraq and Syria before being defeated. Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have been firing at Israel and ships in the Red Sea in a campaign they say aims to support the Palestinians. U.S. warships have shot down several of their projectiles.

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APIKUR has not been invited to Erbil, Baghdad oil talks

APIKUR Statement Seeking prompt resumption of oil exports, APIKUR calls for mutually agreeable solutions that uphold its member companies’ rights. APIKUR companies remain ready to meet with stakeholders and implement solutions. APIKUR is aware of reports of recent meetings between officials from the Government of Iraq (GoI) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and representatives of International Oil Companies (IOCs).  However, APIKUR member companies—which represent the majority of the oil produced by IOCs in Kurdistan—have neither been included in these meetings nor been invited to participate in any future meetings between the KRG and GoI. APIKUR member companies remain confident that their existing contracts are legally binding and enforceable; however, we believe concrete solutions can be implemented immediately that will satisfy all parties, protect the contractual rights of the IOCs and enable the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. APIKUR remains ready to engage with all parties to progress these solutions for the benefit of all Iraqis. “Sanctity of contracts and clearly defined methods of past and future payments are essential for the resumption of full oil production and export by APIKUR member companies,” said Myles B. Caggins III, APIKUR spokesman. “APIKUR members are ready to meet with GoI and KRG officials; continued delays only harm the economic Zlivelihood of all Iraqis.” APIKUR’s objective and purpose is to promote the KRI as an attractive destination for international oil and gas companies, service providers and investors. In addition, APIKUR aims to advocate for and represent the common interests of its members, function as a joint and effective voice towards all relevant stakeholders whether in the KRI, or elsewhere, and provide a forum for its members to share appropriate public industry information and best practices.  

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Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy On November 14, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) made waves by ruling on a complaint against Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, ultimately deciding to revoke his membership in the legislature. In the absence of any appeal mechanism, Halbousi will have to step down from the speakership he has held since 2018—a development that will have ripple effects on the provincial elections scheduled for December 18. A Controversial Institution from the Start When the U.S.-led coalition established the FSC in 2003, it was intended to serve as the top line of defense for the rule of law in post-Saddam Iraq. Two years later—but, crucially, just before the new constitution was adopted—the Law of the Federal Supreme Court (Law No. 30) was passed granting the FSC extensive powers to determine the constitutionality of legislative and regulatory acts, arbitrate disputes between Baghdad and the provinces, validate parliamentary election results, and assert exclusive jurisdiction over prosecutions against top government authorities. The court was also given several guarantees of independence, including at the administrative and financial levels. The FSC’s legitimacy has always been controversial—even its constitutionality remains the subject of ongoing legal debates. Article 92 of the 2005 constitution ordered parliament to pass a law defining the court’s status, but this never occurred. As a result, the FSC still functions under Law No. 30 of 2005. The court has also been the subject of regular criticism as a symbol of sectarianism. This is partly because parliament and other actors have turned the process of appointing judges into a heated battle for sectarian balance, but also because the FSC has decisively interfered in the political process, especially during the stalemates that often emerge during post-election government formation and sectarian bargaining. Most infamously, the court permitted the reinstatement of Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister in 2010 despite the fact that Ayad Allawi’s party won the majority of votes in that year’s parliamentary contest. In a highly contentious interpretation of the constitution, the justices determined that the winning party in a national election does not hold an exclusive right to form the next government—that power can be granted to a coalition of parties instead, even if said coalition emerges after the election. Many observers believe this decision was influenced by Shia parties that opposed Allawi for breaking ranks with them and leading a secular coalition. The FSC Under Faeq Zaidan The FSC has become even more controversial in recent years under the leadership of Judge Faeq Zaidan. In 2017, he became president of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), the body that oversees most of the judiciary and gives him some degree of sway over the technically independent FSC. His influence reached new heights in 2021, when his only remaining rival in the senior judicial ranks—Medhat al-Mahmoud, chief justice of the FSC—was forcibly retired by an amendment to Law No. 30 that mandated a new age limit for Supreme Court judges. While Zaidan had seemingly aligned himself with the country’s pro-Iran camp, Mahmoud had drawn the ire of these factions by showing favor to Muqtada al-Sadr’s rival Shia movement. Notably, the same amendment that sidelined Mahmoud also established the principle of sectarian balance in the FSC’s composition, spurring an increase in Shia justices from southern provinces. Zaidan subsequently used his new authority to implement key judiciary changes and facilitate laws that further strengthened his authority and influence. For instance, the SJC established a “career management” commission with significant powers over the promotion, extension, transfer, and retirement of judges and public prosecutors, essentially giving Zaidan the power to hire and fire all of the country’s judges. He also used his influence to shape the FSC selection process, including the appointment of new chief justice Jassem Mohammed Aboud, whose loyalty to Zaidan is notorious. From Tipping Elections to Open-Ended Judicial Activism When Iraq called for an early parliamentary election in 2021 following months of public protests, the government’s preparations for that vote included overhauling the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). Zaidan quickly took advantage of this process, ensuring that IHEC’s board was composed of judges so that he and his circle could influence important pre-election decisions. In the weeks following the October vote, Zaidan guided the FSC in ways that supported the pro-Iran bloc. Initially, the court seemed to take a balanced position by validating the Sadrist bloc’s electoral victory and putting an end to fraud allegations by rival Shia groups. Before long, however, the FSC issued a string of decisions favoring the Coordination Framework, the pro-Iran Shia bloc opposed to Sadr. Perhaps the most crucial decision related to parliament’s selection of a new president, the first step in the government formation process. In simple terms, the court took a longstanding requirement for a two-thirds majority vote and distorted it into a two-thirds quorum requirement. According to this unprecedented interpretation, at least two-thirds of legislators must be present to certify the vote for president—a decision that enabled the pro-Iran bloc to act as a blocking minority by simply boycotting relevant parliamentary sessions. This in turn paved the way for the resignation of Sadr’s faction and the Coordination Framework’s rise to power. The FSC has also issued rulings that had the effect of punishing the pro-Iran camp’s political opponents. In February 2022, the court declared the Kurdistan Regional Government’s 2007 natural resource law unconstitutional, effectively dismantling a framework that had been designed to compensate for the lack of a federal hydrocarbons law and enable the KRG to proceed with oil sales. Although the weaknesses of the 2007 framework were indisputable, the FSC’s ruling had a clear political motivation as well—to pressure the Kurdistan Democratic Party into abandoning Sadr’s camp, thereby preventing him from forming a government that would have excluded pro-Iran factions. Such punitive meddling continued well after the Coordination Framework achieved its goal and formed a government. In January 2023, the FSC ruled that transfers from the federal budget to the KRG were unconstitutional, and in May, it overruled the attempted extension of the KRG parliament’s term. Other politicized cases have likewise generated controversial (and, notably, pro-Iran) rulings. On September 4, the FSC overturned a law ratifying the 2012 Iraqi-Kuwaiti agreement on navigation in the Khor Abdullah waterway. The case was brought by a parliamentarian from the Hoquq bloc, a political organ of the Iran-backed, U.S.-designated militia Kataib Hezbollah. Besides the pro-Iran camp’s general hostility toward the Sunni Arab-ruled Gulf states, the case may have stemmed from Tehran’s recent tensions with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia over exploitation of the Durra natural gas field. In any event, the ruling threatened to severely disrupt Baghdad’s diplomatic relations with Kuwait, spurring Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to intervene. Zaidan eventually signaled that the decision could be reversed. The November 14 ruling against Halbousi continued the trend of highly politicized FSC actions. Over the years, he had managed to become the undisputed leader of Iraqi Sunni politics and maintain his leadership role in parliament despite numerous changes in government and repeated attempts to dethrone him. In the end, he was taken out by an activist high court—specifically, after a member of his own political alliance, Taqaddum, took him to court on accusations that he had forged a resignation letter for the plaintiff. Implications Despite the multitude of instances in which Faeq Zaidan’s judiciary has issued rulings that benefited Tehran and its proxies, determining the precise extent of Iranian influence on the Supreme Court is not so simple. Even FSC rulings that align with Tehran’s interests often reveal strains of Iraqi nationalist ideology—especially the goals of recentralizing power in Baghdad at the expense of Kurdish autonomy and reforming the constitution to break the country’s chronic cycle of post-election crises and instability. Zaidan himself articulated these ideas in a February 2022 article published on the SJC website. In his pursuit of judicial supremacy, Zaidan has often shown strategic patience by playing with the rules rather than disregarding them outright. Hence, his highly problematic judiciary should not be conflated with the country’s Iran-backed militias—unlike them, his institution remains a potential partner for the international community. For example, cooperation with Iraq’s judiciary has been fruitful on issues related to the Islamic State, with Zaidan publishing legal analysis earlier this year that should facilitate civil documentation for children born under the jihadist group’s so-called “caliphate.” At the same time, partners who want to loosen Iran’s grip on Iraq would be wise to maintain pressure and close monitoring on political issues where the court has overstepped: the election and government formation processes, the various disputes between Baghdad and Erbil, and Iraq’s international obligations, including agreements with Gulf states. Countering Iranian influence inside the judiciary itself will require the West to play the long game, in part by developing academic cooperation and training for the next generation of judges. This approach would align with Zaidan’s yearning for international recognition, as evident in his trips to London and Paris and his recent request to visit the United States.

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Iraq Nov crude output below Opec+ target: Somo

Argus Media Iraq's crude production dropped by 96,000 b/d on the month to 4.093mn b/d in November, according to state-owned Somo, leaving output 127,000 b/d below its Opec+ output target. Iraq has been one of the Opec+ group's serial overproducers, exceeding its target by an average of 123,000 b/d between August-October. But Baghdad in November confirmed its commitment to its pledged output target and gave repeated assurances during the Opec+ meeting on 30 November that it will fully comply with the cuts. The recent Opec+ meeting resulted in Iraq's output target being reduced to 4mn b/d, effective from 1 January. Export loadings from the southern Basrah oil terminal averaged 3.393mn b/d in November, a 92,000 b/d decrease from 3.485mn b/d in October, Somo said. Neighbouring Jordan received 6,000 b/d of Iraqi crude in November, down from 15,000 b/d in October. Bad weather at Basrah ports and demonstrations at the Iraqi-Jordanian border have resulted in interruptions to oil exports, Somo said, resulting in a 11,000 b/d stock build. The amount of Iraqi crude supplied to domestic refineries fell 406,000 b/d from 600,000 b/d. Somo said Iraq burned around 128,000 b/d for power in November, as temperatures fell. Somo in previous months provided a generic 15,000 b/d to 20,000 b/d figure for crude burn, depending on the months of the year and temperatures. Somo estimates put production in the northern semi-autonomous Kurdistan region at 116,000 b/d, all delivered to refineries in the north as exports have been shut in since 25 March. "Iraqi government is not aware of and responsible for any extra quantities produced and smuggled from [the Kurdistan region]," an oil ministry source told Argus. The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur), an industry body representing IOCs operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, today said it is ready to discuss the return of crude exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline [ITP], but said it has neither been included in the meetings between Iraq's federal government and the KRG nor invited to participate in any future meetings. "We believe concrete solutions can be implemented immediately that will satisfy all parties, protect the contractual rights of the IOCs and enable the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq," Apikur said.

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Iraq demands access to evidence gathered by UN team investigating ISIS crimes

The National Baghdad said on Monday that it has yet to receive any evidence from a UN investigation into potential war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide committed by ISIS, saying it was delaying prosecutorial efforts in Iraqi courts. “We reiterate that until this moment, the Iraqi government has not received any evidence from Unitad [UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Daesh/ISIL] that could be used in criminal proceedings,” Abbas Al Saltlawi, Iraq's chargé d'affaires at the UN, told the 15-member Security Council. “We only received reports and summaries that have no legal value before national courts.” He stressed that Iraqi authorities view this as a breach of UN Security Council resolutions regarding the matter and that Unitad must provide evidence of ISIS crimes against the Iraqi population to ensure accountability and justice. Iraq has voiced increasing frustration with Unitad – which was established in 2017 – accusing it of withholding evidence due to concerns about the death penalty in local trials. Evidence has, however, been shared with third parties, including western governments prosecuting ISIS fighters. As per UN Resolution 2379, the evidence obtained by the UN team is to be used “before national courts, and complementing investigations being carried out by the Iraqi authorities or investigations carried out by authorities in third countries at their request”. Dr Al Saltlawi insisted that all evidence “must be provided, whether those acquired by the team or those received from Iraq and developed using advanced technology, handing over all this evidence to the Iraqi government to be used before Iraqi courts”. Iraq has refused to extend the mandate of the Unitad beyond September 2024 as Baghdad and the mission have been unable to resolve the impasse over the death penalty. Robert Wood, the US deputy ambassador to the UN, underscored the implications of a “hasty and premature” closure of Unitad as Iraq continues its “transition from conflict to stability and prosperity”. And Christian Ritscher, special adviser and head of the investigative team said the international community “must ensure that those who spoke up against ISIS crimes are not let down or left behind”. “We must ensure their security and address the trauma they suffered,” he said. “We must ensure that those who have not spoken up yet can do so in a safe and welcoming forum.”  

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Opec+ cut effect on tanker markets probably muted

Argus Media The voluntary crude output cuts announced by Opec+ this week for the first quarter of next year are unlikely to seriously depress tanker rates because of seasonal effects and greater demand for freight from producing countries outside the alliance. Six Opec+ members agreed to 700,000 b/d worth of voluntary crude production cuts in the first quarter of 2024, and Saudi Arabia said it will extend its existing 1mn b/d cut over the same period, all in addition to a previous round of voluntary cuts announced in April. Very large crude carriers (VLCC) may under-perform other segments in the near-term as the largest output reductions are in the Mideast Gulf, a major loading region for the 2mn bl tankers. The cuts imply seven to eight fewer VLCCs needed for the first quarter of 2024, according to bank Jefferies. But with very few new tankers joining the global fleet because of record-low newbuilding orders, the arrival of the seasonally-strong winter period, and disruptions such as the Panama Canal logjam, rates are likely to be well-supported, especially for midsize crude and product tankers. Production cuts this year have not necessarily meant a reduction in exports. Speaking before Opec's announcement, shipowner Frontline's chief executive Lars Barstad said "output and production are not exports." "What we've experienced since August this year, for instance from Saudi Arabia, is that their exports have actually increased," he said. "Also, if we look at… all Opec producers, we've actually seen the same trend… Middle Eastern exports are actually more correlated to the temperature in the Middle East over the summer when they consume a lot for cooling, rather than the stated kind of production quotas." Tankers are less sensitive to Opec+ decisions given crude production growth elsewhere. The new cuts will be in place for 91 days, presenting a short-term headwind for tankers, but Jefferies said with crude production from outside Opec+ forecast to ramp up by 1.2mn b/d between April and September 2024, an unwind of the latest cuts in that period could create a significant increase in cargo volume. "It's oil revenues that is what really matters for [Opec+ members]," Frontline's Barstad said. "And commitment to balance in the oil market is probably difficult for Opec, considering all the alternative sources of crude we currently have", pointing to supply from the US, south America, the North Sea and west Africa. With east Asia the centre for demand, the number of long-haul voyages will likely increase. "I'm tempted to say [the Opec+ decision is] flat out positive," Barstad said. By Matthew Mitchell

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Iraq, Kurdish authorities yet to agree oil exports to Turkey

The New Arab Key obstacles remain in the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq to Turkey, Iraqi officials and Kurdish experts have told The New Arab, including renegotiating contract terms with international oil companies that operate in the autonomous territory.  Earlier this month, Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said that Baghdad could reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and international companies within three days to resume production and export of oil to Turkey. Three weeks later, a breakthrough on the issue remains elusive, despite the cash-strapped KRG urgently needing funds to pay teachers and public sector officials. "The issue is still being discussed and negotiated," Asim Jihad, the spokesperson of Iraq’s Oil Ministry on Monday told The New Arab.  Karwan Hama Saleh, deputy-chairman of the Mesopotamia Foundation for Strategic Studies (MASS), recently explained that the delay in resolving the crisis was in part due to international companies not being ready to alter service contract terms with the Iraqi federal government.  "Currently, the main obstacle is the contracts that the KRG has signed with oil companies which are Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) while Iraq has service contracts with the companies, therefore Iraq does not want to shoulder the responsibility of those PSCs," he told The New Arab. MASS recently held a conference to attempt to resolve the issue between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish authorities. Hama Salih, an expert on economics and leadership who spoke at the conference, said that in order for Baghdad and Erbil to find a middle ground, the Iraqi government should open the gates to all oil and gas companies to invest across the country. If a solution to the oil production issue is not found soon, then more problems will set in, Salih warned, particularly due to concurrent regional crises.   "Because of Israel's war on Gaza, Europe's need for energy has increased. Although the Kurdistan region's oil has no great impact on the world’s energy map, Europe is ambitious [about] the region's oil," Salih said.  "Therefore, we hope the Kurdistan region exploits these opportunities with an open mind and out of personal interests."   Other panelists have also stressed that the oil and gas issue, if handled correctly, could bring Baghdad and Erbil closer together, not further apart.    Iraqi Kurdistan began exporting oil independently to Turkey without the federal government's consent in 2014, sparking reprisals from Baghdad. Since 25 March, Ankara had ceased importing 450,000 barrels from the Kurdistan region, after an international tribunal found that Baghdad was correct to insist on overseeing all exports of Iraqi oil. The tribunal, run by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), ordered Turkey to pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for allowing the KRG to export oil between 2014 and 2018 without the Iraqi government's consent.       

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Missiles and Drones Among Weapons Stolen From U.S. in Iraq and Syria

Draw Media Nick Turse - theintercept. Missiles and Drones Among Weapons Stolen From U.S. in Iraq and Syria Documents reveal “sensitive weapons and equipment” were taken – and the Pentagon may be unaware of the scope of the thefts. U.S. military outposts in Iraq and Syria are plagued by thefts of weapons and equipment, according to exclusive documents obtained by The Intercept that show militias and criminal gangs are systematically targeting U.S. forces. Military investigations launched earlier this year found that “multiple sensitive weapons and equipment” — including guided missile launch systems as well as drones — have been stolen in Iraq. This follows hundreds of thousands of dollars in military gear that were purloined from U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria between 2020 and 2022, as reported earlier this year by The Intercept. America’s bases in Iraq and Syria ostensibly exist to conduct “counter-ISIS missions,” but experts say they are used primarily as a check against Iran. Since the October outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, these bases have come under regular rocket and drone attacks as part of an undeclared war between the U.S. and Iran and its surrogate militias. Join Our Newsletter Original reporting. Fearless journalism. Delivered to you. I'm in The U.S. has increasingly responded to those attacks. In Syria, the U.S. launched “precision strikes” on a “training facility and a safe house” allegedly used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. has since employed an AC-130 gunship against an “Iranian-backed militia vehicle and a number of Iranian-backed militia personnel” at an undisclosed location, following a ballistic missile attack on Al Asad Air Base in Western Iraq. “The President has no higher priority than the safety of U.S. personnel,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, justifying U.S. strikes. But the criminal investigation documents obtained by The Intercept demonstrate that the U.S. cannot even secure its equipment, much less protect its troops. “We don’t tend to think nearly critically enough about the ripple effects of such an expansive U.S. military footprint,” Stephanie Savell, co-director of Brown University’s Costs of War Project, told The Intercept. “The so-called war on terror isn’t over — it’s just morphed. And we can understand these weapons thefts as just one of the many political costs of that ongoing campaign.”   Details about the thefts in Iraq, which were never made public by the military, are found in criminal investigations files obtained via the Freedom of Information Act. In February, military investigators were notified that 13 commercial drones, valued at about $162,500, were stolen from a U.S. facility in Erbil, Iraq, sometime last year. The agents identified no suspects, and no leads are mentioned in the file. A separate investigation discovered that “multiple sensitive weapons and equipment” including targeting sight and launcher units for Javelin missiles — a shoulder-fired guided missile that locks on its targets — were stolen at or en route to Forward Operating Base Union III in Baghdad, Iraq. The loss to the U.S. government was estimated at almost $480,000. Investigators did not believe the thefts were an inside job. “No known U.S. personnel were involved,” according to a criminal investigations file. The investigators instead refer to locals as the likely suspects. “Iraqi criminal organizations and militia groups target convoys and containers for weapons and equipment,” the document stated. “Further there have been systemic issues with U.S. containers being pilfered by these groups and local nationals outside of Union III, due to the lack of security.” Related   Thieves Rip Off U.S. Weapons as Shadow War in Syria Escalates   Earlier this year, The Intercept revealed at least four significant thefts and one loss of U.S. weapons and equipment in Iraq and Syria from 2020 to 2022, including 40mm high-explosive grenades, armor-piercing rounds, specialized field artillery tools and equipment, and unspecified “weapons systems.” Two of the incidents took place at bases in Syria, and three were in Iraq. None of those thefts occurred at Forward Operating Base Union III.   Just how many thefts have occurred is unknown — perhaps even to the Pentagon. After more than two months, both Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, which oversees America’s war in Iraq and Syria, and its parent organization, U.S. Central Command, failed to respond to any of The Intercept’s questions about weapons thefts in Iraq and Syria. Earlier this year, the task force admitted that it does not know the extent of the problem: A spokesperson said the task force has no record of any thefts from U.S. forces. “[W]e do not have the requested information,” Capt. Kevin T. Livingston, then CJTF-OIR’s director of public affairs, told The Intercept when asked if any weapons, ammunition, or equipment were stolen in the last five years.   The thefts and losses uncovered by The Intercept are just the latest weapons accountability woes to afflict the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria. A 2017 investigation by the Pentagon’s inspector general found $20 million of weapons in Kuwait and Iraq were “vulnerable to loss or theft.” A 2020 audit discovered that Special Operations Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, the main unit that works with America’s Syrian allies, did not properly account for $715.8 million of equipment purchased for those local surrogates. Groups like Amnesty International and Conflict Armament Research also found that a substantial portion of the Islamic State group’s arsenal was composed of U.S.-made or U.S.-purchased weapons and ammunition captured, stolen, or otherwise obtained from the Iraqi Army and Syrian fighters.  Losses of weapons and ammunition are significant — and the military has taken pains to prevent them in the past. When the U.S. withdrew forces from an outpost near Kobani, Syria, in 2019, it conducted airstrikes on ammunition that was left behind. The military also destroyed equipment and ammunition during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Still, within weeks of the U.S. defeat, American-made pistols, rifles, grenades, binoculars, and night-vision goggles flooded weapons shops there. Others were exported to Pakistan. Related   Joe Biden Moves to Lift Nearly Every Restriction on Israel’s Access to U.S. Weapons Stockpile   Since the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza, it’s become ever more apparent that U.S. bases in the Middle East serve as magnets for attack, although far-flung outposts have been periodically targeted in other conflict zones. In 2019, for example, the terrorist group al-Shabab assaulted a U.S. base in Baledogle, Somalia. The next year, the same group raided a longtime American outpost in Kenya, killing three Americans and wounding two others. In recent weeks, America’s bases in Iraq and Syria have sometimes come under persistent attack, including as many as four strikes by drones and rockets in a 24-hour period. U.S. forces have been attacked more than 70 times — 36 times in Iraq, 37 in Syria — since October 17. More than 60 U.S. personnel have been wounded, according to Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh. The investigation files obtained by The Intercept offer evidence that U.S. military bases also provide tempting targets for criminals. Earlier this year, The Intercept reported on a daring daylight armed robbery of military contractors less than a mile from the entrance of Air Base 201, a large U.S. drone outpost in Niger. In 2013, a U.S. Special Operations compound in Libya was looted of hundreds of weapons along with armored vehicles. And a 2021 Associated Press investigation found that at least 1,900 military weapons were lost or stolen during the 2010s — from bases stretching from Afghanistan to North Carolina — and that some were then used in violent crimes.

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Sudani was informed of the Erbil talks

A week after his return from Kurdistan, the federal oil minister briefed on the outcome of the talks in Erbil, but Baghdad has not yet made its decision on the proposals for the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani chaired the periodic meeting on Sunday to oversee the Oil Ministry and its projects, focusing on implementing plans aimed at developing Iraq's oil sector. Attended by the Oil Minister, senior officials from the ministry, and advisors to the Prime Minister for oil and energy affairs, the meeting reviewed extraction and distribution projects, export initiatives, gas projects, refineries, progress rates, and obstacles hindering implementation. Additionally, it discussed investment opportunities announced by the ministry for 2023. The Prime Minister stressed the vital importance of enhancing this pivotal sector, given its linkage to national plans and desired development. He highlighted the significance of utilizing the increased global oil prices to boost financial allocations through optimal oil and gas investments. Al Sudani emphasized that oil constitutes the primary income source, and the government is focused on developing the oil sector along with other industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, per its governmental program. Moreover, efforts extend to improving the electricity sector, implementing an integrated energy projects plan, and ensuring continued support through solutions, policies, and decisions. During the meeting, Al Sudani was briefed on the discussions between the federal Oil Ministry and the Natural Resources Ministry in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) regarding resuming crude oil re-exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It is noteworthy that oil flow from Kurdistan and Kirkuk to the Ceyhan port in Turkey ceased on March 25 due to an International Arbitration Court ruling concerning oil exports between Turkey and Iraq.

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"It is unconstitutional for party leader to force candidate to resign"

The Supreme Federal Court, the highest judicial authority in Iraq, clarified on Sunday the justifications behind its decision to terminate the membership of the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and the constitutional articles it relied on. The Court stated that "The principles of the Supreme Federal Court in Case No. 9/Federal/2023 (Termination of Al-Halbousi's Membership) are as follows: Any party leader compelling their affiliated candidates to submit resignation requests and retaining them for future use violates constitutional principles, values, and provisions of Articles (5, 6, 14, 16, 17, 20, 39, 50) of the Constitution. This represents a significant deviation in the democratic process, not recognized by the majority of parliaments worldwide. It cannot in any way negate the will of the people, represented by the Iraqi Parliament, through the parliamentary speaker." The Court continued, affirming its authority to terminate the membership of a parliamentarian whose term has legally expired based on evidence of violating constitutional and legal obligations, citing provisions of the Constitution, particularly the Parliament Law and its formations. The Court holds absolute discretionary power to assess such cases based on facts, evidence, and investigations conducted by it. It further highlighted that its competence lies in ruling on appeals regarding the legitimacy of a member's membership and the verdict to end it, not as a result but as a consequence of its jurisdiction to terminate the membership according to Article 12 of the Parliament Law and its formations No. 13 for the year 2018. This becomes a consequence of the proven termination of membership by law, affirming that the defendant, the Speaker of the Parliament, utilized resignation requests submitted by the plaintiff after tampering and altering them, necessitating the termination of his membership. The Court affirmed that relying on Article 52 of the Constitution is impossible when a parliamentarian is proven to have committed constitutional and legal violations, especially the breach of oath referred to in Article 50 of the Constitution. This precludes the continuation of their membership in the council, necessitating the ruling to end their membership. It is noteworthy that the Supreme Federal Court had issued a decision on Tuesday, November 14th, to terminate the membership of the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, based on a lawsuit alleging "forgery" filed by MP Laith Delaimi. Following the Court's decision, Al-Halbousi stated during a session of the Parliament that "there are those seeking to fragment the political components of society."

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US extends sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iran

The Biden administration has extended by four months a sanctions waiver that will allow Iraq to continue to purchase electricity from Iran and gives Iran limited access to the proceeds to buy humanitarian goods. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed the 120-day waiver extension and it was transmitted to Congress on Tuesday, U.S. officials said. The move is likely to draw criticism from Iran hawks on Capitol Hill and elsewhere who believe the extension will reward Iran at a time when it is coming under increasing pressure to end its support for proxy groups, including Hamas, that are destabilizing the Middle East. There is roughly $10 billion in Iraqi payments for Iranian electricity currently being held in escrow accounts in Iraq, and the waiver will allow Baghdad to maintain its energy imports without fear of U.S. penalties for violating sanctions on Iran. It will also keep in place a provision — included in the last 120-day waiver — under which portions of the electricity proceeds can be transferred to accounts in Oman and then converted to euros or other widely traded currencies for Iran to buy non-sanctioned products. OTHER NEWS The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the decision-making process, said Blinken signed the waiver mainly because the administration doesn’t want to cut Iraq off from a critical source of energy. But they said the administration is confident Iran will not be able to use any of the money for nefarious purposes. They said a rigorous vetting process is in place to ensure that the cash can only be used for food, medicine, medical equipment and agricultural goods. Blinken visited Baghdad on Nov. 5 and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the course of a Middle East trip focused on the Israel-Hamas war and efforts to prevent it from spreading into a broader regional conflict. The officials added that only a small amount of the money held in Iraq had been transferred to Oman during the past 120 days and that none of the money now held in Omani banks had yet been spent. The waiver is similar to one signed by Blinken earlier this year, which freed up some $6 billion that South Korea had paid to Iran for oil imports in exchange for the release of Americans held prisoner by Tehran. Under that waiver, the money held by South Korea was transferred to banks in Qatar and is also restricted for the purchase of humanitarian supplies. However, Iran hawks point out that the waivers can allow Iran to free up domestic revenue it would have otherwise spent on humanitarian goods to fund proxies like Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.  

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